mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would say the 18 Z GFS looks more like the ECM means and nowhere near the operational run of the ECM ECM means That's actually good to see in this timeframe. Looks closer to a coastal than previous GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's actually good to see in this timeframe. Looks closer to a coastal than previous GFS runs. Not going to disagree with that..prior to 18 Z GFS...the ECM & means were on its own...Now at least the ECM means has some support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Fwiw, LC and Joe B are calling for a huge storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 But Joe B does mention it could be non snow in the big cities Fwiw, LC and Joe B are calling for a huge storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Fwiw, LC and Joe B are calling for a huge storm next weekend. Larry Cosgrove? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here is the storm on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Total for storm on GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_144l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I have a feeling these puppies will phase in future runs of the GFS and Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Total for storm on GFS: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p48_144l.gif 850's are really cold on this run. It would be high ratio snows if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 heres the ggem at hr 120, less enthused than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 gfs ens mean, really has nothing to get gung ho over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 850's are really cold on this run. It would be high ratio snows if verified. It's interesting how much colder the GFS is than the ECM, probably due to the system being much less phased. GFS has 2-4" of powder for the City with 850s around -10C, while the ECM changes everyone over to sleet with perhaps a little rain mixed in. I am pretty excited about how much snow pack we may accumulate this winter. The woods behind my house have about 15" on the ground at 400' elevation, I doubt we'll lose too much Tuesday, and then the potential exists for another major Nor'easter. I've lived in Westchester all my life, and I can remember very few winters that had such extensive snow pack or snow falling on top of snow on top of snow. The current pack includes snow from the Boxing Day event, the Norlun trough, and the Miller B storm Wednesday. There looks to be another shortwave dropping into Montana at Day 8 on the GFS which could lead to a snowfall from a clipper/Miller B a few days after the Friday event that is now being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro will cave tonight again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro will cave tonight again Not sure about that; it's had the storm for 3 or 4 runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I doubt we're going to be in a suppressed pattern and have nothing going on. We have too many positives lining up including the MJO and PNA/AO. With the NAO in a neutral to positive state, that strongly argues against suppression. I'm thinking we get another big Miller B this month despite what some of the models say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro will cave tonight again we will find out in an hr or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I doubt we're going to be in a suppressed pattern and have nothing going on. We have too many positives lining up including the MJO and PNA/AO. With the NAO in a neutral to positive state, that strongly argues against suppression. I'm thinking we get another big Miller B this month despite what some of the models say right now. Where is the NAO in a neutral to positive state at this time? HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BYTELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL ANDENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXTWEEKEND. ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Where is the NAO in a neutral to positive state at this time? HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BYTELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL ANDENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXTWEEKEND. ROSENSTEIN I think he means preceding the storm, which may allow the shortwave to get tugged further north. The NAO starts to tank in the Day 7-10 period on many of the models. Here is the CPC chart: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Where is the NAO in a neutral to positive state at this time? HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BYTELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL ANDENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXTWEEKEND. ROSENSTEIN by this...and that -nao is east based not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 0z GGEM doesn't show anything. Complete reversal from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 0z GGEM doesn't show anything. Complete reversal from the 12z run. 12z jma prob would bring an interesting solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 0z GGEM doesn't show anything. Complete reversal from the 12z run. If the Euro loses the storm too I'd be concerned but the GEM has been a suppression machine thus far this winter on numerous occassions, very much against its typical bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 by this...and that -nao is east based not west. I realize that it is not west based...nor did i say that it was but the professionals seem to be stating that its going to be a negative NAO and frigid across the east... Usually when you have such frigid weather you have a higher chance for suppression... Hence the GGEM no longer shows the storm....It really was not showing it at 12 Z either except for well south and then south and east of the area.... Also the UKMET did not have this second storm..until the 18 Z GFS it was just the ECM/ECM means (which the means were entirely different from the OP) that really had any storm effecting the region.... Now the ECM still has the GFS in its corner...but it lost the backing of the GGEM (where it was at least showing a storm)..... Chances are the ECM will probably lose the system as well.... Losing it does not mean one can not happen but the storm had very little ensemble support... From Mt Holly HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE LOWENSEMBLE SUPPORT ATTM. So its a period to watch but not a certainty and with the pattern expected I still would not expect a cutter because even the models that do show the system are not showing a cutter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I realize that it is not west based...nor did i say that it was but the professionals seem to be stating that its going to be a negative NAO and frigid across the east... Usually when you have such frigid weather you have a higher chance for suppression... Hence the GGEM no longer shows the storm....It really was not showing it at 12 Z either except for well south and then south and east of the area.... Also the UKMET did not have this second storm..until the 18 Z GFS it was just the ECM/ECM means (which the means were entirely different from the OP) that really had any storm effecting the region.... Now the ECM still has the GFS in its corner...but it lost the backing of the GGEM (where it was at least showing a storm)..... Chances are the ECM will probably lose the system as well.... Losing it does not mean one can not happen but the storm had very little ensemble support... From Mt Holly So its a period to watch but not a certainty and with the pattern expected I still would not expect a cutter because even the models that do show the system are not showing a cutter..... I wouldn't favor a cutter either right now, but i can see how a cutter could come from this pattern. By cutter i mean a track close to the cities, not great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z jma prob would bring an interesting solution That's from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's from 12Z. yes i know, 0z only goes to hr 72. I didnt see the 12z jma posted here, so i posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yes i know, 0z only goes to hr 72. I didnt see the 12z jma posted here, so i posted it. Oh ok. 0Z JMA crushes the interior at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 well lets see what the euro shows tonight, out to hr 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 well lets see what the euro shows tonight, out to hr 6 What's it look like so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What's it look like so far? only out to hr 78, storm is over the rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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