Porsche Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We agree! Do you think once tonight/tomorrow system gets out of the way, that will help clarify things or just another day of models getting closer to the "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Mt. Holly's POPs raised to 50% Thursday night and 40% Friday for the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Im wondering if this has the potential to be like one of those Jan 2004-type storms we had in the middle of a very cold pattern. How did you make out in those? I believe there were two of them. Nothing over 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Do you think once tonight/tomorrow system gets out of the way, that will help clarify things or just another day of models getting closer to the "event" Its more a matter of the shortwaves involved getting on shore. The models will have a better feel for them once they have more physical data as opposed to satellite guesses and a few aircraft readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Mt. Holly's POPs raised to 50% Thursday night and 40% Friday for the Lehigh Valley. TTN says the same, also for the earlier event they have more frozen precip, 1 to 3 " snow .5 sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It sounds like the theme of this winter No resolution until within 48 hours of the prospective event. In several cases its been a matter of the shortwaves involved getting into the denser RAOB network over land. With dynamic systems like these where they want to blow up right off the coast, the initial conditions are especially critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This looks like a storm where the first event really helps it to possibly track offshore where most people see all snow...this storm has looked like one for several days where if any significant phase occurred it would track just inland of the coast but the first event with the low blowing up to the NE could help the coast's cause. The one thing to caution is this is sort of a SW flow type system and the NAM has big problems placing these too far south beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We agree! The differences between the ECM ensemble and the SREF/GFS/CMC is astounding. It is one or the other. Hard to argue against either, but I have to side with the NCEP SREF in the handling of the western wave--but nobody knows for sure. My probabilities will go WAY up if the ECM changes tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 TTN says the same, also for the earlier event they have more frozen precip, 1 to 3 " snow .5 sleet. Heh, I just posted 1-3 in my FB status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In several cases its been a matter of the shortwaves involved getting into the denser RAOB network over land. With dynamic systems like these where they want to blow up right off the coast, the initial conditions are especially critical. It sounds like a case of a small different in initial conditions resulting in very large differences downstream. Basically, its model roulette until they get properly sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The differences between the ECM ensemble and the SREF/GFS/CMC is astounding. It is one or the other. Hard to argue against either, but I have to side with the NCEP SREF in the handling of the western wave--but nobody knows for sure. My probabilities will go WAY up if the ECM changes tonite. Sounds like more sleepless nights ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The differences between the ECM ensemble and the SREF/GFS/CMC is astounding. It is one or the other. Hard to argue against either, but I have to side with the NCEP SREF in the handling of the western wave--but nobody knows for sure. My probabilities will go WAY up if the ECM changes tonite. Understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You bring up a pet peeve of mine... SNOW DOESN'T FREEZE ROCK HARD JUST BECUASE IT IS GONNA GET REALLY COLD. Sorry for yelling But seriously, I've heard the media do this time and again... "better shovel the snow before it gets really cold or you'll never get rid of it!" Uh, yeah, how about no! Snow doesn't just magically freeze solid just because it gets really cold after a storm... if it stays all snow (and given the GEM that IS a question right now), then it'll still be snow the next day. It won't magically change into a brick or get heavier or much denser just because the temperature dropped to 5 degrees. I will rephrase this for you -- that snow which is plowed into your driveway or where salt has mixed in with it. It is only melted snow that freezes like a rock and has melted because of the brine mixture from the roads. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS more amplified with the northern stream through 54--same elsewhere. This could result in a better phase. Have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS more amplified with the northern stream through 54--same elsewhere. This could result in a better phase. Have to see. in reflection to that, more ridging along the ec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the northern stream is really digging this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is another improvement. Phase is better and the Dynamic Trop is still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is another improvement. Phase is better and the Dynamic Trop is still coming down. does it looks like its leaving some energy behind back in sw texas, compared to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The differences between the ECM ensemble and the SREF/GFS/CMC is astounding. It is one or the other. Hard to argue against either, but I have to side with the NCEP SREF in the handling of the western wave--but nobody knows for sure. My probabilities will go WAY up if the ECM changes tonite. It seems like the Euro and GFS have been duelng this winter. Where one shows a storm several days out and the other doesn't and vice versa. Is it simply due to La Nina or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 does it looks like its leaving some energy behind back in sw texas, compared to 12z? A tiny--but the good thing is the southern wave phases ahead of the trough--that is very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is another improvement. Phase is better and the Dynamic Trop is still coming down. Out of curiosity, why do you like looking at the 2 PVU surface versus something like DCVA or thermal advection from QG theory? Isn't the 2 PVU surface just indicative of subsidence behind the low (implying that there is more UVV ahead of it)? This is probably me being a synoptician versus a mesoscale meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It seems like the Euro and GFS have been duelng this winter. Where one shows a storm several days out and the other doesn't and vice versa. Is it simply due to La Nina or something else? Eh, I don't know if it is La Nina, -NAO, or whatever--they are just different models and work very differently. There will be times they are vastly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Out of curiosity, why do you like looking at the 2 PVU surface versus something like DCVA or thermal advection from QG theory? Isn't the 2 PVU surface just indicative of subsidence behind the low (implying that there is more UVV ahead of it)? I think IPV thinking is much more succinct at explaining the potential for deep tropospheric cyclogenesis and the development of the cold front through the depth of the atmosphere (and potential folding to enhance rapid/explosive cyclogenesis even more). QG alone doesn't really answer why that 500 hpa vort max "strengthens" as the trough digs from 66-90 hours, and DPVA won't explain it well. IPV thinking also deals nicely with moist processes in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Compare the 0z GFS last night to the 18z GFS today...what a difference 18 hours can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 so far this season, if there has been energy to be phased, it seems that they have often done so. This is just another situation where the possibility exists, and based on seasonal trends you'd at least suspect that the trend is going to go in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 if your in the interior you want and earlier phase. If your in the cities on south and east you do not want an earlier phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 if your in the interior you want and earlier phase. If your in the cities on south and east you do not want an earlier phase. i think its if your anywhere, you want more digging to get the low to bomb further south. The gfs has been trending this way every single run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think IPV thinking is much more succinct at explaining the potential for deep tropospheric cyclogenesis and the development of the cold front through the depth of the atmosphere (and potential folding to enhance rapid/explosive cyclogenesis even more). QG alone doesn't really answer why that 500 hpa vort max "strengthens" as the trough digs from 66-90 hours, and DPVA won't explain it well. IPV thinking also deals nicely with moist processes in the low levels. Can't it be explained by the strong CAA/WAA couplet, with the very cold air behind the surface low causing heights to crash? Usually, when I think of mid-latitude systems bombing out, it's due to the increasing baroclinicity between the warm and cold sectors. I'm just asking questions, because you are looking at things I don't normally look at when forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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