uofmiami Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 EC DAY 4-7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Bottom line right now is to trust nothing. I particularly wouldn't trust the GEM since its record lately is the worst of the globals, but I wouldn't buy the EC solution yet either, at least not til its shown more consistency. Good post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Anyone know what the JMA has? Just curious - not that it's a great model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow Id say that's a pretty damn strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why are people hugging the Euro so hard? It has really struggled this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Anyone know what the JMA has? Just curious - not that it's a great model. Haven't looked, but it's actually had a really good month (verification wise)....as in on par with the UK and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 201 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 VALID 12Z THU JAN 20 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 24 2011 EXPECT A LARGE SCALE MEAN TROF TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA INTO THE ERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CONUS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE NWRN CONUS/WRN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFS STILL EXIST WITH DETAILS AMONG LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS AND CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS BUT AS A WHOLE AGREEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. DAYS 3-5 THU-SAT MAINTAIN A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. AS OF EARLY DAY 3 THU THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS WITH THE COLD FRONT SURGING THRU THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS SLOWER THAN ECMWF-BASED GUIDANCE. NEITHER SCENARIO IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE FULL SOLN SPREAD. GIVEN THAT SUCH SURGES CAN SOMETIMES BE FCST A LITTLE TOO SLOW... THE FASTER PORTION OF THE ENVELOPE SEEMS REASONABLE. BY DAY 4 FRI THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING POSSIBLE SFC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A DEEP/WWD EXTREME COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS AND THE 06Z GFS IS RATHER FAR WWD AS WELL. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. ON THE OTHER HAND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF... LEAVING THE 00Z ECMWF AS A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN AT THIS TIME. BY DAY 5 SAT THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS A WAVE REACHING THE PLAINS OR MS VALLEY. A FASTER TREND OF THE 06Z GFS VERSUS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN ADD SUPPORT TO THE 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH TIMING/DETAIL SPREAD TO KEEP CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW. FARTHER WWD THE 00Z ECMWF IS ONE OF THE STRONGER SOLNS WITH A SHRTWV REACHING THE NWRN CONUS BY EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE IS FARTHER NWD IN THE 00Z CMC AND HINTED AT IN WEAKER FORM BY ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE UKMET. WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE FOR ANY CONFIDENT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE IN LIGHT OF ECMWF PREFERENCE ELSEWHERE. DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON INCORPORATE 50-60 PCT OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE SPECIFICS OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WITHIN THE FULL SOLN SPREAD OVER THE WEST/PLAINS BUT CURRENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE DIFFS AND ECMWF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES REQUIRE A BLENDED APPROACH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MEANWHILE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS LACKING FOR THE 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW BEING LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS OF EARLY DAY 7 MON... AS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS BROADER FLOW ALOFT THAN FCST BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THE PREFERRED BLEND STILL YIELDS A WEAK WAVE BUT IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF GUIDANCE. 12Z UPDATE... AS OF EARLY DAY 3 THU THE 12Z ECMWF HOLDS BACK THE SRN PLAINS COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT... BRINGING IT CLOSER TO OTHER NON-ECMWF GUIDANCE. BY FRI THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WWD TREND WITH THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 12Z CMC CONTINUES ITS EXTREME TRAITS FROM ITS 00Z RUN... THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER VERSION OF THE ECMWF... WHILE THE GEFS MEAN IS ON THE SLOW EDGE OF GUIDANCE. ENOUGH SPREAD EXISTS TO PRECLUDE DRAMATIC CHANGES ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING THE INITIALLY PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE 12Z VERSION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS NO COMPELLING REASON TO ALTER THE PRIOR FCST ISSUANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS FAVORABLY TRENDED WEAKER WITH ANY POTENTIAL DAY 7 MON SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENG COAST BUT HAS TRENDED WWD WITH A LEADING SAT-SUN WRN ATLC SYSTEM WHICH REMAINING GUIDANCE KEEPS FARTHER OFFSHORE. DAYTIME TEMPS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN STATES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY. SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY MAY SEE ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-20 F BELOW NORMAL. PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THU-FRI EXPECT A SHIELD OF MSTR TO BRING LGT-MDT SNOW N AND RAIN S ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR NEW ENGLAND AROUND FRI... SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST REGARDING EXACT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT OVER THAT REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE NRN PLAINS TO GRTLKS MAY SEE ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF SNOW. MEANWHILE SOME MSTR SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEEK-WEEKEND BEFORE A DRYING TREND SUN-MON. ALSO A MODEST AREA OF SNOW MAY SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN DURING THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why are people hugging the Euro so hard? It has really struggled this winter. Because its the latest model run.... wait for the next rinse then repeat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm has powderkeg potential. The SREF height-fields are amazing--and almost all feature a full phase over the plains with the GOM coming into play. The SREF height field wiped the floor clean with the global ops for the last storm in this range. CMC is not out to lunch here--although this may not be what some want since it wouldn't all be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm has powderkeg potential. The SREF height-fields are amazing--and almost all feature a full phase over the plains with the GOM coming into play. The SREF height field wiped the floor clean with the global ops for the last storm in this range. CMC is not out to lunch here. Coming from you, I have goosebumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm has powderkeg potential. The SREF height-fields are amazing--and almost all feature a full phase over the plains with the GOM coming into play. The SREF height field wiped the floor clean with the global ops for the last storm in this range. CMC is not out to lunch here--although this may not be what some want since it wouldn't all be snow. Thank you for this. It brings some sanity back into the thread I am looking forward to following your thoughts thru the days coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm has powderkeg potential. The SREF height-fields are amazing--and almost all feature a full phase over the plains with the GOM coming into play. The SREF height field wiped the floor clean with the global ops for the last storm in this range. CMC is not out to lunch here--although this may not be what some want since it wouldn't all be snow. I assume U are referring to the weekend Storm storm and not beyond as I saw there was some potential into next week as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm has powderkeg potential. The SREF height-fields are amazing--and almost all feature a full phase over the plains with the GOM coming into play. The SREF height field wiped the floor clean with the global ops for the last storm in this range. CMC is not out to lunch here--although this may not be what some want since it wouldn't all be snow. Why do you think the GEM is showing a bomb while the GFS and particularly the EC do not? The last time I asked you a question the answer was stellar so I expect another 5-star reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Canadian goes wild.supports concern about phasing.looks like Feb 6-7,1967on east coast Friday.Money in the bank system as per pro site posts what do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why do you think the GEM is showing a bomb while the GFS and particularly the EC do not? The last time I asked you a question the answer was stellar so I expect another 5-star reply GFS 12Z op solution really isn't a huge deal ATM. A comparison of the 0-6-12Z operational runs is far far more revealing, and each run trends more amplified with the diving trough/dynamic tropopause and an eastern budge to the western trough. The final result is a better phase at 84. http://www.atmos.alb..._trend_500.html Compare at 84 hrs of the 12Z run. The12Z GFS is about 2 runs from going loco if the phase comes in better and the trough continues to nosedive S. The deep dynamic DT and a farther S solution would result in potentially tropospheric deep cyclogenesis. Positive feedback for the win--and the GFS solutioon would look awfully like the CMC with tiny changes in the placement of the western trough and eventual phase resulting in a GOM tap. GFS ensembles are way more amped than the op--and this reminds me of last storm where the GFS made slow changes to its height field even while the mean was way more amped. SREF/NAM height fields wiped the floor with the operation globals--and they are very amped here--more so than the globals. All this is suddenly making this event all the more interesting. ECM is a fat outlier--but it too has made some very positive changes with amplification. It really is the biggest outlier in its western wave--and it has a weak phase. Right now still a somewhat low probability (less than 40), but the probability is increasing rapidly for a CMC like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 well the srefs at hr 87 are still fine for everyone. The mean has the 850 0 line over se va...2m temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This storm has powderkeg potential. The SREF height-fields are amazing--and almost all feature a full phase over the plains with the GOM coming into play. The SREF height field wiped the floor clean with the global ops for the last storm in this range. CMC is not out to lunch here--although this may not be what some want since it wouldn't all be snow. I said this in the Jan 18-19th thread last week Do not worry. let the rain wash away the dirty snow. If history repeats itself, usually after an event like this, the fresh new cold air from the high in Quebec sets up for the next snowmaker usually 3-4 days down the road from this next rain/mix event. So often I hear old timers say that you got to have fresh artic air in place for a good snow event. This cold air we have now is stale as a 4 day old dunkin doughnut. I would like a new white coating in a week or so. I still say this is going to happen I am forecasting this today: I am also saying that this storm could deliver up to a foot or more of the white stuff to us by Saturday morning with below zero temps at night to follow with the raditional cooling. All I can say is get ready for some literally butt cold and shoveling. All snow must be shoveled by Saturday morning otherwise an ice brick warning will be issued for strained backs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I said this in the Jan 18-19th thread last week Do not worry. let the rain wash away the dirty snow. If history repeats itself, usually after an event like this, the fresh new cold air from the high in Quebec sets up for the next snowmaker usually 3-4 days down the road from this next rain/mix event. So often I hear old timers say that you got to have fresh artic air in place for a good snow event. This cold air we have now is stale as a 4 day old dunkin doughnut. I would like a new white coating in a week or so. I still say this is going to happen I am forecasting this today: I am also saying that this storm could deliver up to a foot or more of the white stuff to us by Saturday morning with below zero temps at night to follow with the raditional cooling. All I can say is get ready for some literally butt cold and shoveling. All snow must be shoveled by Saturday morning otherwise an ice brick warning will be issued for strained backs 1993 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 any word on the 12z Euro Ens? They don't come out on Allan's site until 4:30, but I thought some of you got them around 3:00... Before last week's Miller B, one 12z run the op was out to lunch, but the ens agreed with the other models. Then the op came on board at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS 12Z op solution really isn't a huge deal ATM. A comparison of the 0-6-12Z operational runs is far far more revealing, and each run trends more amplified with the diving trough/dynamic tropopause and an eastern budge to the western trough. The final result is a better phase at 84. http://www.atmos.alb..._trend_500.html Compare at 84 hrs of the 12Z run. The12Z GFS is about 2 runs from going loco if the phase comes in better and the trough continues to nosedive S. The deep dynamic DT and a farther S solution would result in potentially tropospheric deep cyclogenesis. Positive feedback for the win--and the GFS solutioon would look awfully like the CMC with tiny changes in the placement of the western trough and eventual phase resulting in a GOM tap. GFS ensembles are way more amped than the op--and this reminds me of last storm where the GFS made slow changes to its height field even while the mean was way more amped. SREF/NAM height fields wiped the floor with the operation globals--and they are very amped here--more so than the globals. All this is suddenly making this event all the more interesting. ECM is a fat outlier--but it too has made some very positive changes with amplification. It really is the biggest outlier in its western wave--and it has a weak phase. Right now still a somewhat low probability (less than 40), but the probability is increasing rapidly for a CMC like solution. A good analysis. I think we need to be concerned about the fact that both pieces of energy are outside the RAOB network at the moment. Solutions could change significantly in either direction as the waves get onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 any word on the 12z Euro Ens? They don't come out on Allan's site until 4:30, but I thought some of you got them around 3:00... Before last week's Miller B, one 12z run the op was out to lunch, but the ens agreed with the other models. Then the op came on board at 0z. they come out at 345 on allans site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 they come out at 345 on allans site. Ok thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro ensembles essentially look like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What a scenario, once again a full phase early enough will let this bomb early like the GGEM, a little bit late and we get the GFS, and a weak phase we get the Euro. This has the potential to be a bomb, or not, but its there and not too far off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am also saying that this storm could deliver up to a foot or more of the white stuff to us by Saturday morning with below zero temps at night to follow with the raditional cooling. All I can say is get ready for some literally butt cold and shoveling. All snow must be shoveled by Saturday morning otherwise an ice brick warning will be issued for strained backs You bring up a pet peeve of mine... SNOW DOESN'T FREEZE ROCK HARD JUST BECUASE IT IS GONNA GET REALLY COLD. Sorry for yelling But seriously, I've heard the media do this time and again... "better shovel the snow before it gets really cold or you'll never get rid of it!" Uh, yeah, how about no! Snow doesn't just magically freeze solid just because it gets really cold after a storm... if it stays all snow (and given the GEM that IS a question right now), then it'll still be snow the next day. It won't magically change into a brick or get heavier or much denser just because the temperature dropped to 5 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A good analysis. I think we need to be concerned about the fact that both pieces of energy are outside the RAOB network at the moment. Solutions could change significantly in either direction as the waves get onshore. Always that concern--that is why I stick with 40% for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro ensembles essentially look like the OP. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro ensembles essentially look like the OP. I wonder how many members look more like the GFS/GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You bring up a pet peeve of mine... SNOW DOESN'T FREEZE ROCK HARD JUST BECUASE IT IS GONNA GET REALLY COLD. Sorry for yelling But seriously, I've heard the media do this time and again... "better shovel the snow before it gets really cold or you'll never get rid of it!" Uh, yeah, how about no! Snow doesn't just magically freeze solid just because it gets really cold after a storm... if it stays all snow (and given the GEM that IS a question right now), then it'll still be snow the next day. It won't magically change into a brick or get heavier or much denser just because the temperature dropped to 5 degrees. Ray, doesnt it freeze "rock hard" from alternating freeze-thaw cycles? Even with daytime temps below freezing, the sun melts some of it, which refreezes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What if the temperatures drop to -30, then would the snow freeze rock solid? This is a serious question by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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