tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 180 has another big storm gathering in the gulf, but the hgts acorss the ec are pretty high already , but the 50/50 low is helping out in flattening the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 My memory serves me correctly the ECM was the first to pick up on the threat with that system but then it completely lost it and sent it swimming out in the sea. It was the GFS actually that was then the first to bring that system back to the west.....on one of its 18 Z runs...and then it got blamed on initialization errors etc..... ECM is playing right to its bias here & has been far from spectacular so far with this system.... Now i know you are probably not going to believe a word i just said , and I am ok with it. Just look at what happened last night how it sped the storm up by how many hours? the euro had the storm for like 10 runs in a row then lost it in the medium range then brought it back after the gfs did. The euro's timing for the event when it was showing the event was spot on, while the gfs consistently tried to make it a friday night into christmas day storm, while the euro said sunday. Granted the gfs brought it bac first but to the euro's timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the title asked me to.....how much for the Jersey Shore? (your welcome) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the title asked me.....how much for the Jersey Shore? (your welcome) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 for the cold blast or the storm and is this in concern for the redwood lol Cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Cold blast. sat morn is the coldest. low to mid teens for the cities, upper single digits for the burbs. Sunday is upper teens. These are low, the highs are below frz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the hr 216 storm is an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the euro had the storm for like 10 runs in a row then lost it in the medium range then brought it back after the gfs did. The euro's timing for the event when it was showing the event was spot on, while the gfs consistently tried to make it a friday night into christmas day storm, while the euro said sunday. Granted the gfs brought it bac first but to the euro's timing. Tom's memory is spot-on. The EC pretty much had it from the 20th thru the 23rd... lost it at 12Z on the 23rd... and brought it back at 0Z on the 25th. So it had it for many runs, lost it for 3 runs (~36 hours), then brought it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ooofa! major flood per hour 222... you know this thing will trend offshore... Apps runner?? this winter?? hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 the hr 216 storm is an apps runner. problem with this run is: if the euro's bias is in play, the 1st system for this time period would alter the whole upstream set up @ h5 and down. Guess we'll have to see what the Ensemble shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ooofa! major flood per hour 222... you know this thing will trend offshore... Apps runner?? this winter?? hmmmm LOL it's 216 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 180 has another big storm gathering in the gulf, but the hgts acorss the ec are pretty high already , but the 50/50 low is helping out in flattening the look on plymouth the hr168 h5 maps are looking really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tom's memory is spot-on. The EC pretty much had it from the 20th thru the 23rd... lost it at 12Z on the 23rd... and brought it back at 0Z on the 25th. So it had it for many runs, lost it for 3 runs (~36 hours), then brought it back. Which is what i just said ... It picked up on the threat first but then lost it ...and every body started jumping off the cliffs and thinking it was not coming etc..until the GFS brought it back west. It was the first model. This is a completely different set up and pattern from the boxing storm blizzard... And yes I am well aware that the ECM was the first model this go around to show a MECS at the time frame we are discussing...However..after that it went to holding back the energy and creating a MECS for two runs in a row at the 168 hr time frame to last night...speeding up the system by a good amount of hours.... That is not consistency & that is struggling with the system.... Sorry but I can not consider the ECM as valid when all models are completely singing a different tune.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 problem with this run is: if the euro's bias is in play, the 1st system for this time period would alter the whole upstream set up @ h5 and down. Guess we'll have to see what the Ensemble shows I give up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL it's 216 hours out! yea.. I know... I got carried away a little bit. I just like to laugh at lake cutters and apps runners this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I give up..... You tried. Just remember: If the model doesn't show a good storm, it gets tossed on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I give up..... That is the Euro's bias last time I checked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You tried. Just remember: If the model doesn't show a good storm, it gets tossed on this board However, I've also seen a lone good solution be tossed out. I don't think we can throw the Euro out at all, but if the other guidance continues in the direction of a good storm, then chances are DECENT the Euro bias is at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That is the Euro's bias last time I checked? fromt dtk earlier in the thread. It's because this bit of CW is complete rubbish. I'm sure this all started because historically the EC often struggled with large cut-off lows over the SW US, where it would have an issue in holding onto energy a bit too long. This doesn't mean that the model always holds back energy too long in that particular region. As an aside, I'm not even sure the EC model exhibits this type of behavior anymore (granted I don't look at these types of things very closely on a regular basis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That is the Euro's bias last time I checked? You checked it how/where? [this is a serious question] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 fromt dtk earlier in the thread. It's because this bit of CW is complete rubbish. I'm sure this all started because historically the EC often struggled with large cut-off lows over the SW US, where it would have an issue in holding onto energy a bit too long. This doesn't mean that the model always holds back energy too long in that particular region. As an aside, I'm not even sure the EC model exhibits this type of behavior anymore (granted I don't look at these types of things very closely on a regular basis). It still is an EC bias, just like squashing lows out to sea is still a tendency of the GFS, no matter what NCEP does to upgrade it. Doesn't make it a bad model, but every model has its biases, and this one is the ECMWF's bias,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 However, I've also seen a lone good solution be tossed out. I don't think we can throw the Euro out at all, but if the other guidance continues in the direction of a good storm, then chances are DECENT the Euro bias is at play. I wouldn't beat the drum until the Euro gives in a little (if it does) if not, You probably wanna take the CMC as an extreme solutions and take a blend of the GFS ensembles and the Euro - what that gives you by game time, your guess is as good as mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You checked it how/where? [this is a serious question] Observation, the best tool in the world (this is a serious answer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 However, I've also seen a lone good solution be tossed out. I don't think we can throw the Euro out at all, but if the other guidance continues in the direction of a good storm, then chances are DECENT the Euro bias is at play. Or the models trend towards the euro..Look at this current storm. The euro was the first to show coastal while the gfs and ggem where showing cutters. What happened they trended towards the euro. The euro doesn't have a bias of holding energy back, its bias is towards cut off lows in the sw, which this storm isn't Read dtk comment earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Or the models trend towards the euro..Look at this current storm. The euro was the first to show coastal while the gfs and ggem where showing cutters. What happened they trended towards the euro. The euro doesn't have a bias of holding energy back, its bias is towards cut off lows in the sw, which this storm isn't Read dtk comment earlier. It was also always closer and a better hit with last week's storm, at least compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Or the models trend towards the euro..Look at this current storm. The euro was the first to show coastal while the gfs and ggem where showing cutters. What happened they trended towards the euro. The euro doesn't have a bias of holding energy back, its bias is towards cut off lows in the sw, which this storm isn't Read dtk comment earlier. Well, it wasn't so much of a trend toward the Euro, the cutter still exists, the coastal is just trending stronger (which should have been expected this year anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Or the models trend towards the euro..Look at this current storm. The euro was the first to show coastal while the gfs and ggem where showing cutters. What happened they trended towards the euro. The euro doesn't have a bias of holding energy back, its bias is towards cut off lows in the sw, which this storm isn't Read dtk comment earlier. I'm saying IF the solutions of the GGEM and GFS and NAM continue, chances are that the Euro will come around. I have seen the Euro lose storms once already this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, it wasn't so much of a trend toward the Euro, the cutter still exists, the coastal is just trending stronger (which should have been expected this year anyway). yes, but the ggem and the gfs had no surface reflection of a coastal until maybe sne. I remember a couple of the gfs runs driving the southern stream to detroit and we were forecasted to be in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yes, but the ggem and the gfs had no surface reflection of a coastal until maybe sne. I remember a couple of the gfs runs driving the southern stream to detroit and we were forecasted to be in the 50s. Maybe a run or two, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Bottom line right now is to trust nothing. I particularly wouldn't trust the GEM since its record lately is the worst of the globals, but I wouldn't buy the EC solution yet either, at least not til its shown more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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