earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Definitely interesting to see the NAM and majority of the SREF members resembling a GGEM solution...as well as the GFS trending towards it. My interest is definitely there at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 EC is drier than the GFS. True but thats not all the whole point there, basically this is sandwiched right in between the GGEM and GFS as far as placement is concerned. But your point is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 True but thats not all the whole point there, basically this is sandwiched right in between the GGEM and GFS as far as placement is concerned. But your point is valid. no, the euro isnt a compromise. The euro is the furthest north in developing the storm. The gfs at hr 96 has a low off delmarva while the euro is on the tip of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 with the left over energy from the euro it pops another storm by it heads ots and brushes the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 no, the euro isnt a compromise. The euro is the furthest north in developing the storm. The gfs at hr 96 has a low off delmarva while the euro is on the tip of long island. So its basically not good for DC and up to TTN then or am i misinterpreting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So its basically not good for DC and up to TTN then or am i misinterpreting it? for the euro yes...basically ttn north separates accum qpf of .1 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro is really diving energy down on the west coast at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 also, you can't just say the euro is wrong cause its holding back energy. Granted it may be wrong in this case, but it also could be right and other models haven't latched on to the idea yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 ot, but i was gonna rename the thread title, just don't know how. Any help? thats some impressive supports from the individuals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 pops a coastal at 138 300 miles east of the outer banks from that leftover energy fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 also, you can't just say the euro is wrong cause its holding back energy. Granted it may be wrong in this case, but it also could be right and other models haven't latched on to the idea yet. But that is a common bias of the Euro. That's why it's easy to say it's wrong, similar to if the GFS squashes everything OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How do temps on the EC look after the system Tom? It was nice to see the GFS get colder again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At 144 hrs, strong southern stream wave with a northern s/w coming down out of canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ot, but i was gonna rename the thread title, just don't know how. Any help? Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ot, but i was gonna rename the thread title, just don't know how. Any help? thats some impressive supports from the individuals How about "snow coming, just not sure how much" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How do temps on the EC look after the system Tom? It was nice to see the GFS get colder again... plenty fine the 850s never make it past dc or lower delaware....frz line is on top of us or south of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Done Well played, sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro really bombs that storm out up in Canada.. looks sub 960 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 But that is a common bias of the Euro. That's why it's easy to say it's wrong, similar to if the GFS squashes everything OTS. yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro really bombs that storm out up in Canada.. looks sub 960 mb a good 50/50 low for the storm over the southern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Done very nice next thread: am19psu finally understands the error of his ways thanks to new member with 4 posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 plenty fine the 850s never make it past dc or lower delaware....frz line is on top of us or south of us... I meant over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Lots of potential post 144 hrs on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At 144 hrs, strong southern stream wave with a northern s/w coming down out of canada. gfs and prior euro runs hinted at a threat in the 1/25 - 1/27 timeframe as well. Seems like more tracking to do for next week as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I meant over the weekend for the cold blast or the storm and is this in concern for the redwood lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gfs nd priot euro runs hinted at a threat in the 1/25 - 1/27 timeframe as well. Sems like more tracking. Yeah. The storms keep coming. After the Friday/Saturday, GGEM/GFS and Euro all show the possibility of a storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense. It's because this bit of CW is complete rubbish. I'm sure this all started because historically the EC often struggled with large cut-off lows over the SW US, where it would have an issue in holding onto energy a bit too long. This doesn't mean that the model always holds back energy too long in that particular region. As an aside, I'm not even sure the EC model exhibits this type of behavior anymore (granted I don't look at these types of things very closely on a regular basis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense. Agreed. This is a drastically overstated and widely misunderstood "bias." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense. My memory serves me correctly the ECM was the first to pick up on the threat with that system but then it completely lost it and sent it swimming out in the sea. It was the GFS actually that was then the first to bring that system back to the west.....on one of its 18 Z runs...and then it got blamed on initialization errors etc..... ECM is playing right to its bias here & has been far from spectacular so far with this system.... Now i know you are probably not going to believe a word i just said , and I am ok with it. Just look at what happened last night how it sped the storm up by how many hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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