Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

JAN 20th-22nd potential..


NaoPos

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 983
  • Created
  • Last Reply

True but thats not all the whole point there, basically this is sandwiched right in between the GGEM and GFS as far as placement is concerned. But your point is valid.

no, the euro isnt a compromise. The euro is the furthest north in developing the storm. The gfs at hr 96 has a low off delmarva while the euro is on the tip of long island.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

also, you can't just say the euro is wrong cause its holding back energy. Granted it may be wrong in this case, but it also could be right and other models haven't latched on to the idea yet.

But that is a common bias of the Euro. That's why it's easy to say it's wrong, similar to if the GFS squashes everything OTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But that is a common bias of the Euro. That's why it's easy to say it's wrong, similar to if the GFS squashes everything OTS.

yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense.

It's because this bit of CW is complete rubbish. I'm sure this all started because historically the EC often struggled with large cut-off lows over the SW US, where it would have an issue in holding onto energy a bit too long. This doesn't mean that the model always holds back energy too long in that particular region.

As an aside, I'm not even sure the EC model exhibits this type of behavior anymore (granted I don't look at these types of things very closely on a regular basis).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense.

Agreed. This is a drastically overstated and widely misunderstood "bias."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yes, but was everyon saying the same with the boxing day storm? When in reality it was right and all the other models trended towards it....Im not saying it right or wrong, but throwing it out cause its holding energy back doesn;t make sense.

My memory serves me correctly the ECM was the first to pick up on the threat with that system but then it completely lost it and sent it swimming out in the sea. It was the GFS actually that was then the first to bring that system back to the west.....on one of its 18 Z runs...and then it got blamed on initialization errors etc.....

ECM is playing right to its bias here & has been far from spectacular so far with this system....

Now i know you are probably not going to believe a word i just said , and I am ok with it. Just look at what happened last night how it sped the storm up by how many hours?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...