LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is a SECS. .5-.75" QPF for everybody except Long Island, who sees .75-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't understand why people keep saying that. This isn't a Snowstorm or out to sea scenario. It could clearly be a situation where it's too warm on the coast and is a valid concern, even this far out I agree to certain point. Main thing is that there is a storm out there to get all worked up if it will be snow / rain / mix this far out will drive you nuts this storm is bound to shift back and forth and maybe even lose the storm until we get Closer to the actual event. Good thing is there is a storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For anyone worried about precip-type on the GGEM, here are the maps: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Go to about 90 hours on. Everyone from the Delaware River north and west looks to stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not saying its wrong, but just a reminder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For anyone worried about precip-type on the GGEM, here are the maps: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Go to about 90 hours on. Everyone from the Delaware River north and west looks to stay snow. hr 99 has a 982mb Low directly over Trenton, so despite whatever it says, I doubt that would be all snow as far south as Philly. But I agree with others, just the fact that it has a storm is good enough for me from 96 hours out. The GEM tends to over-phase storms anyway, which is why we have a farther west track and therefore warmer temps. About 4-5 days out from the last storm, the GEM was showing a bomb with mixing along I-95. 24 hours from the storm it was too far east So I wouldn't worry too much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This could def hug the coast but only if it wraps up significantly which in a way I doubt. I think it will be flatter and it will probably end up being mostly snow from PHL to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No, it would just be a much more explosive storm. Look at the 12Z CMC for potential scenarios. The CMC for once isn't a big pile of junk and has a realistic threat potential that the GFS is trending to over the last few runs in the op and ensemble. Great to see you involved in the storm threat again. You were pretty well spot on with your thoughts each event I have followed you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z gfs finally starting to catch on. Looking much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 99 has a 982mb Low directly over Trenton, so despite whatever it says, I doubt that would be all snow as far south as Philly. But I agree with others, just the fact that it has a storm is good enough for me from 96 hours out. The GEM tends to over-phase storms anyway, which is why we have a farther west track and therefore warmer temps. About 4-5 days out from the last storm, the GEM was showing a bomb with mixing along I-95. 24 hours from the storm it was too far east So I wouldn't worry too much yet. Might be one of those cases where the low is so deep the cold air comes in. But I agree not to worry about temps too much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 alright euro is out to hr 36 lets see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 When did Trenton move to the Jersey shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Great to see you involved in the storm threat again. You were pretty well spot on with your thoughts each event I have followed you! 100% agree. Just the fact that BI is looking at this potential event without completely discounting the GGEM instills my confidence. He's a great met and really nice of him to spend time in our threads given his location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No Tombo EC pbp? Edit: NVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tom, How's euro for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 When did Trenton move to the Jersey shore? lol i was thinking the same thing when he said the low was centered over trenton. Granted its not in the BEST location but it sure as heck isnt inland its basically sitting just on the jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No Tombo EC pbp? He is doing it, he said out to 36 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tom, How's euro for tomorrow? little colder, but nothing of much for the cities inch or less of snow quickly to ice then rain...Euro qpf is about the same as gfs .75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 little colder, but nothing of much for the cities inch or less of snow quickly to ice then rain...Euro qpf is about the same as gfs .75-1 Thanks Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 through hr 66 the euro is hanging back a good bit more enrgy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 through hr 78 it continues to hold bac some energy in the sw...hgts are hgs along the ec....it looks about 6 hrs slower with everything at h5....in terms of surface the storm is further north in the plains...lgt to mod precip is streaing from tx to ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 84 has lgt to mod precip from western ny and pa southwest to eastern tx...loos like a 1012 low is trying to develop just north of mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 1004 low looks to be centered over dc of hgr...850s are from ocmd to just south of fredricksburg...frz line nyc to phl then along m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Classic example of its bias of holding energy back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 96 has a sub 1000 low at the tip of li .1-.25 qpf from ttn to bos lgt precip south of ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro bias may be at play. From hr 72 -84 it held the southern stream energy in the SW, and then the northern stream beat it. Dont buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Even the recently very supressive UKMET has a low off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 102 the storm move ene to about 125 miles east of bos... lgt to mod precip for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So basically this fits right in the middle of the GFS and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 because the southern stream is held back, the northern stream outruns it, pops a miller B type scenario. before that though, the ridge out west was a bit more amp'd than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So basically this fits right in the middle of the GFS and GGEM? EC is drier than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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