am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is there a lag associated with influence of the MJO and GWO.....in other words once they move into better position for us does it take a few days for its effects to actually be felt? Not really, since they are continuous. When the signal is strong (like now), you can feel pretty confident in their H5 correlations. Of course, the storm systems are a function of s/w activity moving through the longwave pattern set up by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z gfs ensembles have some pretty nice hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z gfs ensembles have some pretty nice hits good point though, its a shame the euro backed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Nam at 84 hours looks really healthy. The one thing that I would like to see is a high up north. Without that, this storm has a chance to be a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Nam at 84 hours looks really healthy. The one thing that I would like to see is a high up north. Without that, this storm has a chance to be a coastal hugger. Its hard to say where that is going, those types of storms where you get a phase between the north and south disturbance over the MW in a flowing type of pattern usually are decent events north of TTN but sometimes have a risk of being very sleety and rainy south of there, sometimes sleet can even make onto LI...usually 3-6 or 4-8 inch type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Nam at 84 hours looks really healthy. The one thing that I would like to see is a high up north. Without that, this storm has a chance to be a coastal hugger. there is a very large 1036mb high right behind the storm....thats fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z gfs ensembles have some pretty nice hits Several of those are rain in coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Several of those are rain in coastal plain. thats not the point....a big hit this far out is all we're looking it. fine tune rain/snow details and qpf later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Lol Ji, love the commentary on the ensembles :-) NAM is honking if you ask me. 500 mb showing a phase, rising heights along the east coast, HP (weak) to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS showing a moderate hit at 96 for Philly...more for LI, NYC, etc. Looks like the low begins to bomb out just after it passes Philly followed by a cold shot. Philly looks like a 2-4" type event verbatim...guessing LI and SNE are 6"+, NYC probably 3-6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice moderate hit for everybody on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 interesting stuff showing up for FRI. its been all or nothing around here the past couple winters but this system looks to skew the mean.....a decent hit for alot of folks. im wondering though what affect will this have on our potentially bigger system end of wknd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 interesting stuff showing up for FRI. its been all or nothing around here the past couple winters but this system looks to skew the mean.....a decent hit for alot of folks. im wondering though what affect will this have on our potentially bigger system end of wknd? that potential storm is actually just the Euro shearing out the Fri event and hanging a piece of the s/w back west too long - a typical bias it has. So really it's not a separate storm, it's just a piece of the first storm being delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The operational GFS is about 1-2 runs of changes in the height field to being more like the 0z CMC as it continues to hedge towards an earlier phase over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm surprised no one posted the 6z GFS ens mean (and if they did I'm sorry) 992mb for 96 hours is a HUGE signal that the 6z op is off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The operational GFS is about 1-2 runs of changes in the height field to being more like the 0z CMC as it continues to hedge towards an earlier phase over the plains. Would this phase delay the storm until saturday? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 that potential storm is actually just the Euro shearing out the Fri event and hanging a piece of the s/w back west too long - a typical bias it has. So really it's not a separate storm, it's just a piece of the first storm being delayed. Yep...and the GFS has been quite consistent on the timing of the storm being Friday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Would this phase delay the storm until saturday? Rossi No, it would just be a much more explosive storm. Look at the 12Z CMC for potential scenarios. The CMC for once isn't a big pile of junk and has a realistic threat potential that the GFS is trending to over the last few runs in the op and ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 boy- at hr162 on the 12Z gfs there is a real strong piece of energy diving down out of canada....can it phase with the southern stream energy? will it squash the southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No, it would just be a much more explosive storm. Look at the 12Z CMC for potential scenarios. The CMC for once isn't a big pile of junk and has a realistic threat potential that the GFS is trending to over the last few runs in the op and ensemble. I agree this is a Fri/Sat threat, the 2 runs of the euro were keying in on the wrong energy which it was haging back. This run of the gfs is cloe as you say to a very nice storm. It'll be intersting if the GGEM can hold serve and the ecm has a more robust and amplified system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GGEM holds steady. has another bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks closer to the coast. Looks like mixing issues for DC-PHL and possibly up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks closer to the coast. Looks like mixing issues for DC-PHL and possibly up to NYC. not a concern at this pt...the fact it held serve on this solution is all that matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GGEM holds steady. has another bomb! Through 84 it looks close to the NAM idea though the NAM is further NW with low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't understand why people keep saying that. This isn't a Snowstorm or out to sea scenario. It could clearly be a situation where it's too warm on the coast and is a valid concern, even this far out not a concern at this pt...the fact it held serve on this solution is all that matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 you guys are going off a ggem which clearly is always to warm...lets see what the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't understand why people keep saying that. This isn't a Snowstorm or out to sea scenario. It could clearly be a situation where it's too warm on the coast and is a valid concern, even this far out 96 hour lead time is far too great to call temp gradient, unless you believe 2m will be in the 40's Fri on the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Heard at the Mid-Atlantic forum that the 12z GEFS look much better than the 0z ones. Does anyone have the full storm progession maps from the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't understand why people keep saying that. This isn't a Snowstorm or out to sea scenario. It could clearly be a situation where it's too warm on the coast and is a valid concern, even this far out Says who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't understand why people keep saying that. This isn't a Snowstorm or out to sea scenario. It could clearly be a situation where it's too warm on the coast and is a valid concern, even this far out The point is, we're not getting worked up over details of where to place a rain/snow line on a 96 hour prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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