uofmiami Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Day 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tombo and myself were discussing this the other day when the Euro was showing something more similar to what the GEM is now...the pattern is conduvive to a system possibly tracking close enough for mixing on the coast...due to the arctic high moving eastward out west you won't get a true cutter, but this could be a storm where we have mixing issues at JFK/ISP/BDR, even LGA for a time. I'm of the same opinion as well if we get a system amplified enough to make a run up the coast. Did make a post last night that ended up getting buried last night. While the general setup with the NAO being somewhat less influential and possibly allowing a further west coastal low track is there.. I also noted about the MJO phase forecasted to be in 7 around this time. Rest below.. I would've included the PNA in your bold highlight. Right now I see the major drivers of this pattern going forward as being the forecasted generally -AO allowing the cold to be available and what is currently a forecasted persistent +PNA pattern allowing it to spill into the US (and the MJO too). The NAO around the time frame of this possible storm as tombo referenced above with the CPC map, while having some spread is still relatively neutral (albeit prob negative) and as also mentioned.. east based. It's pretty early in the game yet to say whether or not a storm in the manner of the 12z euro solution comes to fruition.. theres def the potential for it. However, with a weaker -NAO I would def think the possibility of more of a coastal hugger is on the table if we had a storm come up in the manner of the European. In addition, the MJO phase is forecasted to be in phase 7 at the time of this potential event I believe. And I know trying to connect the phase to past northeast and great lakes storms can be a bit of a wash.. perhaps could get a bit of met assistance here as i'm not an MJO expert by any means but I always thought that phases 8/1 were considered "better" for an east coast snowstorm while something in 7 could foretell something further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So is it safe to say we lost the storm at what was 168 hrs at 12 Z & the potential has shifted to the 4-5 day time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I was over in the PA/NY thread.......... the CMC looked really good in the day 4/5 range FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 per mitchels statement with the low diving down...as that low dives down a low also forms in the gulf and goes a good a distance ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Man, the Euro has been all over the place. Goes from a big storm to ots on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Seems that there are two main camps on this storm. 1) A weaker storm on Friday with some snow, unless you look at the GEM 2) A major storm if the energy phases up better and it occurs on Sunday, Like most of the storms this winter the models are flip flopping at the 120-168hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Seems that there are two main camps on this storm. 1) A weaker storm on Friday with some snow, unless you look at the GEM 2) A major storm if the energy phases up better and it occurs on Sunday, Like most of the storms this winter the models are flip flopping at the 120-168hr range. I am going to have to disagree with this...Majority of guidance has been keying in on what is now the 96-120 hr time frame. The ECM was at one time doing this and showed a MECS but then it reverted to showing two runs in a row of a system that was developed by hanging energy back over the SW and then it showed two MECS on those runs @ the 168 hr time frame. However..it was the only model and the OP run did not have much support from the ECM means ... Now the ECM is once again reverting back to the system at the earlier time frame-where it once was. We do have a model currently that phases the energies together which as you mentioned is the GGEM..but that is not in the latter time frame either but the 96-120 time frame. Basically it appears as the time frame to watch has always been the 20-22nd and not the storm that was @ 168 hrs out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At this time it is too early to tell, you can be right too. I call this model hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At this time it is too early to tell, you can be right too. I call this model hell. I call it La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 reguardless of what it shows, tons of potential here, thats all anyone should take it at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 reguardless of what it shows, tons of potential here, thats all anyone should take it at right now. Are there more threats at the end of the run? How cold does it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Are there more threats at the end of the run? How cold does it get? I think there is a bowling ball in the southern stream at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If you believe the GFS the area is going to make a run at 95-96...at this point it will only take one more 20 incher and 3-4 minor events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Are there more threats at the end of the run? How cold does it get? another snow event at hr 222...cold but not brutal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...RS_0z/f120.html gfs ens indiv, showing a wide variety of solutions. Anything is on the table right now imo, and we need to let the models get the tuesday storm out of their way. check out those srefs means 500mb at 87 hr... http://www.nco.ncep....ef_50h_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here's a snippet from my blog discussion tonight. I really believe we're going to see some mouth watering solutions (again) the next few days. The northern stream has been trending stronger and further south for about 3 or 4 model cycles on the GFS and GEFS means. Long Term High pressure builds back into the region by late week with below normal temperatures continuing behind the storm system. Attention then turns to a northern stream shortwave which is modeled to dive southeast towards the Central US. We are concerned in regards to this storm threat and it's potential impact on the area..especially considering the trends amongst most guidance suites today. Model guidance is hinting at a pacific jet shortwave breaking off southward towards the Gulf Coast and then ejecting northeast in tandem with this northern stream feature. The trends towards a stronger northern stream are concerning..as any further south..and we would likely be dealing with a partial or full phase with the two features--which would develop a more significant low pressure near or off the east coast. With plenty of cold air in place..as well as significant shortwave energy being modeled..the potential does exist for a winter weather event in this time frame. The GGEM is most robust at this time frame..digging the northern stream far enough south to interact with the shortwave that tracks over the Arklatex and then northeast. The GFS has trended further south with the northern stream it's past 3 model cycles. Included slight chance pops for Friday..but this will probably need to be adjusted with timing as we approach the event..modeling uncertainty precludes higher pops at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Interesting to see another potential set-up with either a phase or no phase situation, in regards to that northern stream. This could be about timing, or the Northern stream's strength. Most importantly, the interaction between the southern/northern stream will, once again, be vital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 These would argue the GEM had as flukey a run as the Op Euro did last night...not one of the 20 ensemble members supports it... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html no comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 fwiw the dgex is a rainstorm tracks the low over the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The DGEX has tried to poo on every party this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Meanwhile 90% of the 6z GFS ensemble members are stronger and wetter than the op GFS for the Fri-Sat storm. Many of them are amplified enough that they suggest a change to rain along and east of I-95. http://raleighwx.ame...06zp72f144.html http://www.meteo.psu...ef.html#picture These would argue the GEM had as flukey a run as the Op Euro did last night...not one of the 20 ensemble members supports it... http://www.weatherof...ime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If you're looking for something outside the normal model guidance to hang your hat on, the MJO and the GWO are both going to be in prime position for an East Coast snowstorm around the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If you're looking for something outside the normal model guidance to hang your hat on, the MJO and the GWO are both going to be in prime position for an East Coast snowstorm around the 22nd. Well I'll give you this, you have been banging the drum for a while back in early Jan around this time. Hopefully something big will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well I'll give you this, you have been banging the drum for a while back in early Jan around this time. Hopefully something big will come. I was only forecasting the MJO and GWO, which looks like it will be right... we'll see if that potential can be realized. I'm still learning all of this medium range stuff, so take all of my posts about it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I was only forecasting the MJO and GWO, which looks like it will be right... we'll see if that potential can be realized. I'm still learning all of this medium range stuff, so take all of my posts about it with a grain of salt. Will do, but seems like you are on track with your thoughts, seems like tonight and tomorrow is a tough call out my way, guess I'll be expecting a slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The DGEX has tried to poo on every party this year. The DGEX is poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The NAM/ CMC/GFS ensembles look like they are on the same page with the quicker movement of the sw energy to the east. And some very cold air is showing up on the GFS ensembles in the wake of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is there a lag associated with influence of the MJO and GWO.....in other words once they move into better position for us does it take a few days for its effects to actually be felt? If you're looking for something outside the normal model guidance to hang your hat on, the MJO and the GWO are both going to be in prime position for an East Coast snowstorm around the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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