SACRUS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM looks better i'll say http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM is a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM is a bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gfs ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The GEM is on the ball with this storm, its likely way too strong but its had the right idea for a few runs now while the GFS/Euro are having problems of different levels causing the GFS to be weak and unphased and the Euro to be keying in on the wrong things causing the late storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 based on the GGEM setup there's nothing stopping the storm from being an inland runner/coastal hugger as we get closer to the possible event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 based on the GGEM setup there's nothing stopping the storm from being an inland runner/coastal hugger as we get closer to the possible event OTS appears to be a bigger concern than if this is an Apps runner or not ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 based on the GGEM setup there's nothing stopping the storm from being an inland runner/coastal hugger as we get closer to the possible event Tombo and myself were discussing this the other day when the Euro was showing something more similar to what the GEM is now...the pattern is conduvive to a system possibly tracking close enough for mixing on the coast...due to the arctic high moving eastward out west you won't get a true cutter, but this could be a storm where we have mixing issues at JFK/ISP/BDR, even LGA for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Tombo and myself were discussing this the other day when the Euro was showing something more similar to what the GEM is now...the pattern is conduvive to a system possibly tracking close enough for mixing on the coast...due to the arctic high moving eastward out west you won't get a true cutter, but this could be a storm where we have mixing issues at JFK/ISP/BDR, even LGA for a time. yea i dont see this cutting, that arcitic airmass is pressing. Coastal hugger as shown i definitely can see or a track over 95, but further west, no unless something changes at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow. At least the ECM is not necessairly alone in depicting a set-up that has the ability to produce that type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow. At least the ECM is not necessairly alone in depicting a set-up that has the ability to produce that type of storm. not saying the coastal isnt happening, but the ggem has a bias of over phasing storms and getting ridiculous low pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gfs ens mean Mean certainly looks better than before. And glad to see the GGEM come aboard, even if that 850 line is close initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 not saying the coastal isnt happening, but the ggem has a bias of over phasing storms and getting ridiculous low pressures. It has not exhibited that bias all year due to the Nina but it might be on this one though, I don't see a 973mb low in that setup at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There is one model that has the lakes cutter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Correct me if I'm mistaken, but this is not the same storm as what the Euro shows. The GGEM phases the northern and southern stream compared to the Euro's keeping them seperate. In fact, this is what the Euro would show if both streams phased. The storm on the Euro results from the southern s/w eventually being ejected into the southern stream and climbing up the coast. The GEFS means lean much more towards the GGEM. However, if the GGEM has a bias of overphasing, its solution should be discounted as its the product of a phased, vamped up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Potential is what counts the most now guys, not storm placement. And we got potential. Lets sit with that the next couple of days and see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 based on the GGEM setup there's nothing stopping the storm from being an inland runner/coastal hugger as we get closer to the possible event Strongly disagree with this given the upper level height field. The orientation of the northern stream diving south and east and the strong diffluence that occurs aloft with the ridging off the east coast supports the track the GGEM shows....or maybe even one further offshore if any changes were to occur with the southern stream that phases. One would need a significant height field change to make this run inland. The northern stream would have to dig a good bit further to the west and alot more. Also..should be noted although the GGEM shows a bomb..it is nothing like the Euro. It's basically in agreement with the GFS..but just amplifies everything so much more that the surface low bombs out further west. The Euro has a completely different upper air progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 By the way..here's a keeper. Beautiful H5 depiction for some good overrunning and then a coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 alright euro has started, lets see what its spits out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 through hr 72 northern stream is digging down more...a little more ridging along the ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 84 northern stream continues to dig a good bit more...its not holding back much energy as 12z was.... more ridging along the ec...lgt to mod precip streaming from southern plains to st louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 90 has the overunning up to ohio...same theme as before more digging with northern stream and hgr hgts along ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 96 overunning to central pa..still leaving some enrgy behind...back in tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 96 overunning to central pa..still leaving some enrgy behind...back in tx Sounds like a step in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 102 has a broad area of sub 1008 pressure over eastern nc.....lgt precip over the area...with mod over western pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 108 has a sub 1004 low about 200 miles east of acy... .1-.25 over phl to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The energy over Alberta seems more important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 hr 114 sub 996 about 150 miles east of cc...precip out of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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