NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Here's what the 12 EURO shows... While John (earthlight) pointed out that the blocking is a less than ideal east based a bit, there's still a block. Hey. we'll take what we can get. The MJO is forecasted to be in it's strongest phase 7 than we've seen in quite some time. With the Pac ridge building, this time period has potential. Moreso, than what the 18-19th has in terms of widepsread snowfall. We'll have to see how the 18-19th system interacts up north, and whether it becomes a 50-50 and help establish a block (such as what the 12z EURO showed today) Discuss away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 below zero temps right after this storm for the big cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 More EC images: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 With the lack of blocking for this storm. It will be a quick mover.. and will have to take a perfect trajectory to keep this from gong to rain near the low pressure system. :x This will play havoc on precip type East of 95 if the low is too close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 With the lack of blocking for this storm. It will be a quick mover.. and will have to take a perfect trajectory to keep this from gong to rain near the low pressure system. :x This will play havoc on precip type East of 95 if the low is too close to the coast. yup, like forky said you need a flatter solution. The euro just has to much enrgy on the back side which raises the hgts to much on the ec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 below zero temps right after this storm for the big cities Those are for lows, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Those are for lows, right? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If we are talking 7 days out from now ... I find it hard to believe anyone would get rain with MAX temps looking like this... A SECOND VERY STRONG COLDSURGE DROPPING THRU THE NRN PLAINS DAY 5 THURSDAY AND DRIVING TOTHE EAST COAST DAY 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIRTHIS SEASON AS REFLECTED BY THICKNESS VALUES AND H850 TEMPS.HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BYTELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL ANDENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXTWEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The ridge axis is too far west for me and the lack of blocking makes me concerned right off the bat that the storm will try to cut in future runs, unless the trough and cold air behind it really is powerful enough to overwhelm all else. Either way, this has much less room for error than a system that tries to cut with a block present. Right now I think (if it happens) that an inland solution is preferred here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The ridge axis is too far west for me and the lack of blocking makes me concerned right off the bat that the storm will try to cut in future runs, unless the trough and cold air behind it really is powerful enough to overwhelm all else. Either way, this has much less room for error than a system that tries to cut with a block present. Right now I think (if it happens) that an inland solution is preferred here. I posted last night the 00Z Euro solution should have been inland with the low track, it made no sense that such a strong 500 trough over IL was still neutral over the EC or only slightly negative...this storm would not likely cut THAT far inland due to the approaching arctic airmass but it could hug the coast or track just west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The ridge axis is too far west for me and the lack of blocking makes me concerned right off the bat that the storm will try to cut in future runs, unless the trough and cold air behind it really is powerful enough to overwhelm all else. Either way, this has much less room for error than a system that tries to cut with a block present. Right now I think (if it happens) that an inland solution is preferred here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I posted last night the 00Z Euro solution should have been inland with the low track, it made no sense that such a strong 500 trough over IL was still neutral over the EC or only slightly negative...this storm would not likely cut THAT far inland due to the approaching arctic airmass but it could hug the coast or track just west of NYC. i think this is going to be a common theme for the 2nd half of winter. The cutter option is on the table more so do to the lack of blocking. 12z Euro just has to much energy on the back side of that trof, need it to phase a little later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Majority of your guidance does not even have a storm at this time range.. And the ones that do have it south and east and are reflecting at nothing resembling a lakes cutter and with a -NAO -AO + PNA it would be extremely difficult to have a lakes cutter .. GFS UK GGEM Then there is the ECM Currently the ECM is alone with this event... With the cold air ..the concern would be more suppression of anything as that is actually what majority of the guidance is suggesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Majority of your guidance does not even have a storm at this time range.. And the ones that do have it south and east and are reflecting at nothing resembling a lakes cutter and with a -NAO -AO + PNA it would be extremely difficult to have a lakes cutter .. Currently the ECM is alone with this event... With the cold air ..the concern would be more suppression of anything as that is actually what majority of the guidance is suggesting... the gem is pretty close to the euro, its just not as robust the nao is east based at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Majority of your guidance does not even have a storm at this time range.. And the ones that do have it south and east and are reflecting at nothing resembling a lakes cutter and with a -NAO -AO + PNA it would be extremely difficult to have a lakes cutter .. Currently the ECM is alone with this event... With the cold air ..the concern would be more suppression of anything as that is actually what majority of the guidance is suggesting... That is true, but remember that it was a few days ago where the Euro showed a similar solution for the 18th-19th event the GFS showd at 12Z this morning with the relatively decent low track but no cold air...of course it waffled since then but it might have had the idea right before any other models did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 and the gfs is all northern stream with a late blooming miller B that's ots and doesnt effect us.. has suppression written all over it too many early assumptions, anything can happen, things will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the gem is pretty close to the euro, its just not as robust the nao is east based at best How is the GGEM close to the ECM? 144 GGEM 12 Z 12 Z ECM One is up by Cape Cod at 144 hrs and the other is well south over Alabama... It does show a storm yes...in the same ball park ...no ... Pattern does not reflect a GLC... A SECOND VERY STRONG COLDSURGE DROPPING THRU THE NRN PLAINS DAY 5 THURSDAY AND DRIVING TOTHE EAST COAST DAY 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIRTHIS SEASON AS REFLECTED BY THICKNESS VALUES AND H850 TEMPS.HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BYTELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL ANDENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXTWEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z gfs has a storm, just a day or two earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 How is the GGEM close to the ECM? One is up by Cape Cod at 144 hrs and the other is well south over Alabama... It does show a storm yes...in the same ball park ...no ... Pattern does not reflect a GLC... A SECOND VERY STRONG COLDSURGE DROPPING THRU THE NRN PLAINS DAY 5 THURSDAY AND DRIVING TOTHE EAST COAST DAY 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIRTHIS SEASON AS REFLECTED BY THICKNESS VALUES AND H850 TEMPS.HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BYTELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL ANDENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXTWEEKEND. The precip look is pretty close with the way how its oriented more towards a front passage. No one is saying a glc, but a hugger or track over the cities isnt out of the question. Whenever you have limited blocking and the trof/ridge positioning being shown an inland solution is not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The precip look is pretty close with the way how its oriented more towards a front passage. No one is saying a glc, but a hugger or track over the cities isnt out of the question. Whenever you have limited blocking and the trof/ridge positioning being shown an inland solution is not off the table. Some on here would welcome one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 heres the euro ens mean at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18z gfs trended towards the gem and euro this run with a more sw to ne look to it...looks like 2-4 for phl to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I would say the 18 Z GFS looks more like the ECM means and nowhere near the operational run of the ECM ECM means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 18z NOGAPS has the Friday storm now too. 18z gfs trended towards the gem and euro this run...looks like 2-4 for phl to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 a changeover is not out of the question, given all the southerly flow in e n america. however, we can still get a pretty good amount of snow before it warms up with these waa situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 a changeover is not out of the question, given all the southerly flow in e n america. however, we can still get a pretty good amount of snow before it warms up with these waa situations If you're talking about the first event I initially thought the same but the models have clearly trended in the direction of a relatively strong coastal storm with the angle of approach by the storm and position of the high considerably getting worse, at this point the most I can envision is 1-2 inches of snow before a changeover at the coast...the 18Z GFS still gave some hope but the NAM is an outright nightmare for anyone who wants that....the NAM is not in its best range but this season it has been very good on occasion even at its long range though it was obviously too far west with the last event beyond 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If you're talking about the first event I initially thought the same but the models have clearly trended in the direction of a relatively strong coastal storm with the angle of approach by the storm and position of the high considerably getting worse, at this point the most I can envision is 1-2 inches of snow before a changeover at the coast...the 18Z GFS still gave some hope but the NAM is an outright nightmare for anyone who wants that....the NAM is not in its best range but this season it has been very good on occasion even at its long range though it was obviously too far west with the last event beyond 72. SG, which storm are we talking about? The one at the end of the next week when temps are supposed to be in the 20s, or the Monday-Tuesday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 SG, which storm are we talking about? The one at the end of the next week when temps are supposed to be in the 20s, or the Monday-Tuesday event? I swear I'm lost....I see posts in each thread where I see what appears to be people discussing the storm from the other thread....I was referring to the first event Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 I swear I'm lost....I see posts in each thread where I see what appears to be people discussing the storm from the other thread....I was referring to the first event Tuesday. Wrong thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If you're talking about the first event I initially thought the same but the models have clearly trended in the direction of a relatively strong coastal storm with the angle of approach by the storm and position of the high considerably getting worse, at this point the most I can envision is 1-2 inches of snow before a changeover at the coast...the 18Z GFS still gave some hope but the NAM is an outright nightmare for anyone who wants that....the NAM is not in its best range but this season it has been very good on occasion even at its long range though it was obviously too far west with the last event beyond 72. the second one. it looks that way, at least on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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