Kbosch Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 00zs say I'm gonna need to dig out my canoe from under all that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Plenty of el here. Lots of 1000-1200+ just in my town It snows here...maybe almost as much as in your hamlet He doesn't believe that...but the world never forced the ignorant to be enlightened. You avg just about as much as him. But I know he's probably trying to pull your strings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Rather interesting sounding from KLEB at 72 on the 6z NAM... Very wet snow, or very cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I like ice more than snow. Bring on the zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I like ice more than snow. Bring on the zr. Disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 He doesn't believe that...but the world never forced the ignorant to be enlightened. You avg just about as much as him. But I know he's probably trying to pull your strings. Aww,that hurts Will, you've met me, do you really think I'm ignorant?lol I was just trolling Dave but it looks like I caught a met. I'd bet my bottom dollar that my 1400' , East Slope of the Berks locale averages more than Hubbardston, though I did note the wordsmithing "just about as much".lol Think Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Disgusting. Good ice storms (not talking a glaze or .2") don't happen very often here in the exterior coast plain areas of SNE. Sure out at 2k in the Berkshires there are a fair share. Bring on a '98 redux, though just a hair colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM coming in colder and colder each run now AWT it would...Snow to a damaging icestorm N +W of 95/495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM coming in colder and colder each run now AWT it would...Snow to a damaging icestorm N +W of 95/495 Another strange run of models. HPC prelim says "abysmally low confidence" in their med range. Euro op has nice coastal later in the period but no semblance of it in the ensemb. Have not idea what the gfs is showing short or long. No discussion overnight so have to think folks are not too excited about this next event. Hard to see cold air at the surface get scoured out that easily when it is going to be 0 to singles monday night on top of almost 2 feet of snow. I'm just going to assume I get a few inches of snow and then some sleet maybe frzg rain before it cuts off. Then a crust and we wait for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Another strange run of models. HPC prelim says "abysmally low confidence" in their med range. Euro op has nice coastal later in the period but no semblance of it in the ensemb. Have not idea what the gfs is showing short or long. No discussion overnight so have to think folks are not too excited about this next event. Hard to see cold air at the surface get scoured out that easily when it is going to be 0 to singles monday night on top of almost 2 feet of snow. I'm just going to assume I get a few inches of snow and then some sleet maybe frzg rain before it cuts off. Then a crust and we wait for the next one. Euro op has the end of week storm suppressed and mnissing us..though it's probably wrong. I think the ens have some semblance of it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Aren't the NAM/GFS/EC all transitioning to rain throughout the area eventually? I'm not really enthused from what I'm seeing. Seems like not many others are enthused as I think there were only three pages of posts made since 8:30p.m. lol I'm afraid my flight will take off. Did the late week sysem fall off the table? What's that all about? Cold is still there, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Aren't the NAM/GFS/EC all transitioning to rain throughout the area eventually? I'm not really enthused from what I'm seeing. Seems like not many others are enthused as I think there were only three pages of posts made since 8:30p.m. lol I'm afraid my flight will take off. Did the late week sysem has fallen off the table? What's that all about? Cold is still there, though. THE GFS/EURO don't have the CAD like the nam has which is to be expected since the NAM is better at picking up mesoscale features like that. Its safe to say your area will not get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 THE GFS/EURO don't have the CAD like the nam has which is to be expected since the NAM is better at picking up mesoscale features like that. Its safe to say your area will not get above freezing. Kevin--I hope you're right. I can't forecast worth sh*t in a straight-forward system. With this one, the one word that comes to my mind is "ugly". What's your take down at BDL? I suspect my plane is likely to be coming in there on Tuesday night for an 8:30 departure on Wed. Any hope for a "trip cancel"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 At least it's not a horrific 50° torch soaker. Plenty of frozen on either side. Wednesday will blow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 BOX says "very low confidence" on end-of-the-week storm. Reading their AFD and their description, I'd go on a limb with "fairly high confidence" that there is not going to be a storm. Do any of the ice scenarios for Tuesday suggest anything 'severe"? Seems like we could go heavier snows (though BOX is doubtful on warning criteria anywhere) which I htink would mitigate the effect of later ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Kevin--I hope you're right. I can't forecast worth sh*t in a straight-forward system. With this one, the one word that comes to my mind is "ugly". What's your take down at BDL? I suspect my plane is likely to be coming in there on Tuesday night for an 8:30 departure on Wed. Any hope for a "trip cancel"? They should go snow to sleet to zr to maybe a 33-34 rain/drizzle ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 BOX says "very low confidence" on end-of-the-week storm. Reading their AFD and their description, I'd go on a limb with "fairly high confidence" that there is not going to be a storm. Do any of the ice scenarios for Tuesday suggest anything 'severe"? Seems like we could go heavier snows (though BOX is doubtful on warning criteria anywhere) which I htink would mitigate the effect of later ice. Why would you say that other than letting your pessimism percolate to the surface? This season has shown a propensity for storminess and overperformance. I'd say it's better than 50/50 it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 They should go snow to sleet to zr to maybe a 33-34 rain/drizzle ending Thanks. Regardless of the outcome, we'll have some nice antecedent cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks. Regardless of the outcome, we'll have some nice antecedent cold in place. Yeah this is a true arctic airmass moving in today/tonite..The CAD should be impressive on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow depressing overnight runs. Warm system tues/wed trailing system is a miss, and now friday system is suppressed on guidance including the Euro and Gfs. Im really stoked gods country might get some ice, I am sure its the last thing they would want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 BOX says "very low confidence" on end-of-the-week storm. Reading their AFD and their description, I'd go on a limb with "fairly high confidence" that there is not going to be a storm. Do any of the ice scenarios for Tuesday suggest anything 'severe"? Seems like we could go heavier snows (though BOX is doubtful on warning criteria anywhere) which I htink would mitigate the effect of later ice. Why would you say that other than letting your pessimism percolate to the surface? This season has shown a propensity for storminess and overperformance. I'd say it's better than 50/50 it happens. It's not my pessimism, Pete. Like I said in my post, I referring to how their AFD reads. GFS SHOWS POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ECMWF HAD A STORM ON PREVIOUS RUNS BUT 00Z RUN NOW IS SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND GGEM/UKMET HAVE NO STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Box afd does not really seem that dire for the deep interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Box afd does not really seem that dire for the deep interior. It seems teh snow will not reach warning criteria, but we'll get enough of our qpf in snow/sleet where the ice that follows would fall short of a warning as well. My guess anyway. Either way--wintry is more important than the wording used to describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What am I missing here? Why is everyone saying the end of week storm is suppresed when last night's euro shows a bombing storm tracking from HSE to Portland ME? A few weeks ago this run of the euro would have resulted in ten pages of chatter overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's not my pessimism, Pete. Like I said in my post, I referring to how their AFD reads. GFS SHOWS POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ECMWF HAD A STORM ON PREVIOUS RUNS BUT 00Z RUN NOW IS SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND GGEM/UKMET HAVE NO STORM Ok Mike, we shall see. Seems like you never believe.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What am I missing here? Why is everyone saying the end of week storm is suppresed when last night's euro shows a bombing storm tracking from HSE to Portland ME? A few weeks ago this run of the euro would have resulted in ten pages of chatter overnight. Good example of when most have snow on the ground, Thoughts change, Storm on the Euro at the end of the weeks looks good up this way, The Tue-Weds storm here is a snow/sleet rain back to snow/sleet so i don't think its that devestating up this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Aww,that hurts Will, you've met me, do you really think I'm ignorant?lol I was just trolling Dave but it looks like I caught a met. I'd bet my bottom dollar that my 1400' , East Slope of the Berks locale averages more than Hubbardston, though I did note the wordsmithing "just about as much".lol Think Snow! I'm guessing you avg a good ten inches more at your airye than me. No real data on my end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro does have next week's storm going over the Cape. Good snows for all. Euro ensembles are ots for now. Still looks like a mess this week. I don't see any big changes from last night's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro does have next week's storm going over the Cape. Good snows for all. Euro ensembles are ots for now. Still looks like a mess this week. I don't see any big changes from last night's runs. Nam is colder though ..quite a bit actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ok Mike, we shall see. Seems like you never believe.lol Lol.. Not an issue of faith. Rather of literacy. I'm reading what they wrote. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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