Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I would think an icestorm would be more likely to happen with a warm front, not a cyclone sitting on the benchmark. Warmer air riding up and over colder air with strong high pressure north of new england, low level cold oozing down the valleys. Certainly dont envision that with cyclogenesis to our se and no HP to our north. The GFS run created an Ageo drain of low level cold, the 6 Z Nam closed ML centers south of us, lots of floppy stuff today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It's a tough call yet again... gee wiz. In any event, I'm impressed with the rad presentation along the Mohawk Trail upstream this afternoon. This kind of 30DBZ fuzz in 25/10 type air mass is high ratio low visibility stuff. I don't perceive this as a "dry up" scenario because it is not based on either CAA, or s-base instability, but has got mlv dynamical support. I think 1-spot 3" totals should sweep through the area. The storm mid week is puzzling. The 12z GFS has all snow at FIT per point-click MOS product at Weathertap, and the synoptics are not impossible, yet the warm solutions forcibly entered on the 12z guidance. I still see colder solutions as favored despite these runs, but may capitulate if things appear different on over the weekend. Part of the reason why is because the west to east component of the flow is where most of this amplitude is stored... The north south is relatively shallow. In other words, we don't necessarily need the more typical Dekotas longitude ridge axis; particularly also when the flow is highly compressible over FL - that ain't hurting anything. Also, the PNA is rising, so the correction vector is pointed toward more western heights out in time, probably somewhat E as well. ...how much remains to be seen, but envision a model byproduct that shades the top of the ridge axis polarward. We've got a winner, John. I'm a little north of the Trail. S+, big flakes. Vis down to about 1/4 mile attm. Fingers crossed for more wintry than wet on Tuesday. 18.6/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 LOL I agree , need closed ML centers South and East, Nam looks floody,, let's see what evolves, multiple solutions all over the place. Ya know flopping around., payback is a biatch you guys roasted me all winter last year. I have my targets lined up, LOL I disagreed that the 2nd half would be "la EPIC" last year and I was right.....I thought this year would be a good winter, but not epic.....jury still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The GFS run created an Ageo drain of low level cold, the 6 Z Nam closed ML centers south of us, lots of floppy stuff today. I suspect tomorrow will be one of those days where each NAM run gets colder and colder as it senses the LL cold, snowpack, and how strong /cold the high is.. Can already envision it happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The GFS run created an Ageo drain of low level cold, the 6 Z Nam closed ML centers south of us, lots of floppy stuff today. Yeah all over the place so who knows. GFS is a good ice storm while the NAM is a flooding event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Ginx's flooding fetish will get a workout on Tuesday if the NAM is right Epic disaster with clogged drains but it will change at 0 Z, I still expect a front ender to drizzle crappie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 BOX basically lock a cold scenario Sort of Euroish MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 14. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. PATCHY FOG. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I suspect tomorrow will be one of those days where each NAM run gets colder and colder as it senses the LL cold, snowpack, and how strong /cold the high is.. Can already envision it happening I really don't think anything you just said is valid. It all depends on how the models develop and track the developing coastal low and the orientation of high to the northeast. The NAM is just too tucked in to the coast and floods us with easterly winds as opposed to the GFS that develops the low early enough to start the ageostrophic northerly drain. The Euro, on the other hand, doesn't really develop any coastal low and results in rain... but at least no flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Epic disaster with clogged drains but it will change at 0 Z, I still expect a front ender to drizzle crappie. The NAM has like 2.5" of rain in New London county lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Tauton seems to be going with colder senario giving me mostly snow here in Manchester Nh! Hope it verifies or at least snow/ice storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Watch out Friday. Sh*t. I'm supposed to return from Jamaica Friday night, connecting through Pittsburh. If that gets canceled, I'll be pissed. Happy if the outbound does and I can cancel, but not the return. NO...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I disagreed that the 2nd half would be "la EPIC" last year and I was right.....I thought this year would be a good winter, but not epic.....jury still out. You are not on the hit list. But that jury is about to give a historic decision. Long rangers are pimping Feb by the dozens. Just let JB in the back door, he brought in another kegerator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The NAM has like 2.5" of rain in New London county lol You know how you media guys say ponding on the roads,that would be oceans on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We've got a winner, John. I'm a little north of the Trail. S+, big flakes. Vis down to about 1/4 mile attm. Fingers crossed for more wintry than wet on Tuesday. 18.6/13 This is a pretty impressive radar depiction for what the models were showing... looks stronger than progged. Snow growth is maximized up here in the north and we've got an inch so far... but I think the radar out of the Albany area looks even more impressive. 30dbz+ in this environment is 1"/hr or more snowfall rates. High ratio and low visibility stuff like Tip said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Got the 18z NAM is beyond ugly... flooding rains for all! 40+ for KTOL with southeasterlies gusting to 35 The nutmeg state will be come "The Blue Snow State". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Who can trust the NAM??? Lol.... Anyway here on a little weekend getaway in Manchester VT....getting awesome clippper snows...great snow growth beautiful scene. not worried at all...awesome stretch incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Sh*t. I'm supposed to return from Jamaica Friday night, connecting through Pittsburh. If that gets canceled, I'll be pissed. Happy if the outbound does and I can cancel, but not the return. NO...................... Come back Thursday night. I am but I always was. If there's a hint of earlier, I'll head out mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 You know how you media guys say ponding on the roads,that would be oceans on the roads. lol no kidding. It's a weird setup I think we need the streams to remain separate and that southern stream to pop the coastal as soon as possible and track it near the BM to lock in the cold. Solutions really turned ugly today, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro ensemble mean shows the Friday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 BOX basically lock a cold scenario Sort of Euroish MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 14. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. PATCHY FOG. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT That doesn't sound like ice to me...... S+ continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro ensemble mean shows the Friday storm What's it show for the Tuesday deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That doesn't sound like ice to me...... S+ continues. How much so far Mikey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 You are not on the hit list. But that jury is about to give a historic decision. Long rangers are pimping Feb by the dozens. Just let JB in the back door, he brought in another kegerator. I don't doubt that.....I told you I have been hedging snowier than my outlook for awhile now, but my call is what it is......no changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 What's it show for the Tuesday deal? Hard to say... but looks pretty similar to the op and definitely not like the ice on the GFS. I'd say it's a quick snow/sleet to rain for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 How much so far Mikey Eye-balling close to an inch. Really impressive flakes. Radar continues strong upstream. Maybe a 3" deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The euro op looks like a classic swnh..nrn orh county and berks ice. Tolland may get some, but I don't like the boundary layer trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'd call that a MECS on the EURO next Friday....6-10" type deal....nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Eye-balling close to an inch. Really impressive flakes. Radar continues strong upstream. Maybe a 3" deal? clipper has been an overperfomer all the way across the lakes incredible squall line developing near lake ontario on the backedge hvy snow here 1/4 mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'd call that a MECS on the EURO next Friday....6-10" type deal....nice. Eh, SECS for most. Nice hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'd call that a MECS on the EURO next Friday....6-10" type deal....nice. As long as Sunday is dry...I'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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