Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM is likely to warm in the BL for the coastal plain as it was in the last storm. I'd lean on climo for this one and hedge warmer. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just corrected the image. It's really 'non-bullish" on anyone hitting 8". Would that be "sheepish"? I think it's bearish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think it's bearish I thought that was only wtih stocks. Either way--surprsied they have so little confidence. 13.8/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 box AFD doesn't really mention dynamic cooling at all does mention GL weakening low will drag mid level warmth into region. IMO this could cut down totals in GC/ S.VT i would like to compare 8h-9h soundings for KPIT ...KORH KBOS for 21 and 0z . .....respectively. i would assume mid levels would warm a tad more out west closer to the source (GL Low) Did not include 18 z in AFD, interestingly colder though overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it didn't get much above 15 here today...beautiful day though...no wind, brilliant sunshine...snowblowed to the woodpile, shoveled out the woodpile, brough some firewood in...just absolutely amazing!!! still have no idea what this storm tomorrow is going to bring...or what time it's supposed to start, for that matter...i left the woodpile uncovered thinking i could bring in another load tomorrow and then cover it back up before the precip started...would be handy to know a start time... keeping my fingers crossed for a colder storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I thought that was only wtih stocks. Either way--surprsied they have so little confidence. 13.8/-2 Emotion is as much a part of weather as it as in the stock market, as this forum clearly demonstrates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I thought that was only wtih stocks. Either way--surprsied they have so little confidence. 13.8/-2 doesn't include n e thing after 0z, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I thought that was only wtih stocks. Either way--surprsied they have so little confidence. 13.8/-2 Perhaps they're riding the Euro. I haven't seen the QPF maps, but from what I understand they've been going downhill the past couple of runs and 12z spits out .5-.75 for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 doesn't include n e thing after 0z, no? And there you have it. Thanks for pointing that out. 13.6/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS rips good early morning on...meeting cancel likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow--gfs has .5+ everywhere west of the river by 1:00p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS rips good early morning on...meeting cancel likely. The only reason I'm worried about no school cancellation here is that local news stations only have 2-4" here. Some towns may say NBD even though it could be 5 then ice making conditions worse then a 12" powder snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 The only reason I'm worried about no school cancellation here is that local news stations only have 2-4" here. Some towns may say NBD even though it could be 5 then ice making conditions worse then a 12" powder snow day. All I know is that the drive to MHT around 10 will probably be bad, but coming back a little after noon will be an unmitigated disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 All I know is that the drive to MHT around 10 will probably be bad, but coming back a little after noon will be an unmitigated disaster. Should I have any concerns with my commute from the North Shore into Boston in the morning? Or coming home for that matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 All I know is that the drive to MHT around 10 will probably be bad, but coming back a little after noon will be an unmitigated disaster. Yes it will. Another problem is midterms tommorow, so we have a half day so busses will be going home at 11:30, could be primetime for bad conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like 5-8'' before changeover on the GFS. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like 5-8'' before changeover on the GFS. AWT. Closer to the 5" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Pretty odd qpf field on the 18z GFS.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Closer to the 5" verbatim. Better than 12z. We'll say 6'' and call it a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Pretty odd qpf field on the 18z GFS.......... Yeah....mostly western NE and southwest of there. The 12z NAM also had a trouncing of western NE/ENY, didn't it? With mixing a lot of folks fall short of warning verification based on those qpf's. 13.1/-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yes it will. Another problem is midterms tommorow, so we have a half day so busses will be going home at 11:30, could be primetime for bad conditions. Dec. '07 commute redux in S NH, only with an earlier start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS flips E Mass to snow on Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A lil extra at 48 for SE NH/ E Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro had an extra inch on Wednesday too I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm concerned too about school cancellations... some people saying "a delay will be fine" based on forecasts from a day or 2 ago. Not the case!! At my school, we have exams Wed-Fri as they added tomorrow as an extra class day following 2 days off last week. I'm doubtful they'll cancel as that'll just screw up exam week even more. But it wouldn't be a bad idea with something like this; we're in for surprises -- good and bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like 5-8'' before changeover on the GFS. AWT. i think timing the ML warming is always difficult watching ML warming here ...http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# .compared with 12z nam gfs forecasts i want to say that the "look" on radar of this Great lakes low and precip would make me hestitant to think some sneaky warm layer wont make it in during the mid afternoon dynamic cooling be damned. but i'm talk out my rear end. ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm concerned too about school cancellations... some people saying "a delay will be fine" based on forecasts from a day or 2 ago. Not the case!! At my school, we have exams Wed-Fri as they added tomorrow as an extra class day following 2 days off last week. I'm doubtful they'll cancel as that'll just screw up exam week even more. But it wouldn't be a bad idea with something like this; we're in for surprises -- good and bad Yeah, a delay makes no sense with the timing of the storm. Id say everyone West of 495 and North of Ma/Ct border should cancel, but well see. We have midterms tommorow-thurs so Im fine with making them Wed-Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm concerned too about school cancellations... some people saying "a delay will be fine" based on forecasts from a day or 2 ago. Not the case!! At my school, we have exams Wed-Fri as they added tomorrow as an extra class day following 2 days off last week. I'm doubtful they'll cancel as that'll just screw up exam week even more. But it wouldn't be a bad idea with something like this; we're in for surprises -- good and bad I'm pretty sure the forecats will be updated by tomorrow morning when they'd need to make a decision. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 From Springfield's finest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Huh? Nam had me pegged for 20in this past storm 6 to 12 hr out and I ended up with 13in. Does that make sense now? NAM was too warm in the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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