moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is kind of funny. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...ICE ACCRETION OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM TUESDAY. THE SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY FALL ON TOP OF THE SNOW TUESDAY EVENING...ADDING TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...5 TO 32 ABOVE. * VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED TO UNDER ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 New maps hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has got to be a huge Box staff headache, verbatim NAM is traffic stopping bomb midday six hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hell of an AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has got to be a huge Box staff headache, verbatim NAM is traffic stopping bomb midday six hour NAM is likely to warm in the BL for the coastal plain as it was in the last storm. I'd lean on climo for this one and hedge warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No question this is a very tough forecast. In ORH area they are calling for 3-5 inches followed by 1/4-1/2" ice. If this is going to bust it would seem atm it is more likely to bust more snowier. than i flip to rain, but you never know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM is likely to warm in the BL for the coastal plain as it was in the last storm. I'd lean on climo for this one and hedge warmer. BOX seems to be following SWFE with cold antecedent airmass climo almost to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hope Harvey didn't take the holiday off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 My zfp has 6-10. Sounds reasonable. Hopefully not too much taining and we can hit the high end. Looks like a lot of ice in CT. .25-.50 in hartford? Get the salt out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Finally BOX reveals the updated snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BOX also has a chance to change back over to ZR overnight tomorrow in boston with a low of 31 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Finally BOX reveals the updated snow forecast That is the same one from this morning look at the upper right hand corner 4:05 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Finally BOX reveals the updated snow forecast Upgrade for SE areas, reduction for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 wow box gives me 5-9" tomorrow and 2-4 tomorrow night 7-13" ?? huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I say "boooooo" on the new map. lol The forecast is for 6-10", looks like they split the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 box AFD doesn't really mention dynamic cooling at all does mention GL weakening low will drag mid level warmth into region. IMO this could cut down totals in GC/ S.VT i would like to compare 8h-9h soundings for KPIT ...KORH KBOS for 21 and 0z . .....respectively. i would assume mid levels would warm a tad more out west closer to the source (GL Low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Does this have a chance to go 12/16/07 a bit with things trending colder, and the Trend of this winter being awesome?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i kind of excited to see what the gfs says now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 wow box gives me 5-9" tomorrow and 2-4 tomorrow night 7-13" ?? huh You need to look at the zfp. 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You need to look at the zfp. 6-10. I will take it either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 new map form box gives me 8.6! wooohoooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 They upped the totals for Essex county to 3-5, thoughts guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 also the 12z gfs on twister osu shows MSLP -500 column max temp this may show why box tempered GC accums the 1000-500 mb max temps map shows 0c + cutting just west of ORH into GC at 21z ....with a nice sub 0c layer .....thru C. CT nw Ri and the 128 belt past 495.......then at 0z http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model _mm=01&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=12&fhour=33¶meter=TVMXC&level=SFC_500&unit=MB&ma ximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false looks like sub 0c 850's hang on for NE mass thru 0z but BL temps warm a touch too much. 8H could be marginal as well...guess that is the beauty of looking at plymouth state soundings ...eliminates the mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BOX p+c gives me 4-8, map gives me 5, warning says 2-6 and .25-.5 ice, with higher snows north of ma pike. It seems like a very tough forecast here. Depending on how things play out it may be 3" then quick change, or we could end up with an 8-12" snow bomb before the changeover if the 18z nam is right. Split the difference. 3-6" 1st call, 4-7" final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Interesting--ALY's warning is only calling for 3-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 sun going down still a clear sky and no wind! Temps are going to drop like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 sun going down still a clear sky and no wind! Temps are going to drop like a rock Nice that they added the metar feature for temps in the profile section.......... Edit: Looks like i am missing my data....hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is interesting: Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why? Just corrected the image. It's really 'non-bullish" on anyone hitting 8". Would that be "sheepish"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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