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Midweek Storm DISCO


DomNH

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Seems to me, the only option is to go with the NAM for this area (KLEB). Considering how consistent it has been, and the fact that it gives about 9 inches of Snow followed by a slight glaze... It's the only way.

My dreams and aspirations aside, I'm pretty sure this is the 2nd straight euro run to chomp down qpf here. Whether or not that's a big deal given dynamics (see watcher91), idk. One thing that has been consistent has been the GFS MOS, which is printing out a whole lot of "z" and a "2" consistently (for like 6 consecutive runs). I don't think that's right, but it's there. GGEM looks ridic wet... and the RGEM is pretty impressive too...

Bottom line is, idk... but not willing to chomp on any solution. I would throw up a warning.

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You don't wanna see..trust me.

well on the twister wx site the 12z gfs looks like it wants to give me around 6 inches of snow......or more.

HPC last nite was talking about a blend of GFS/ECWMF profiles.......so interesting stuff setting up especially N of pike and W of 495....but perhaps even W of 128 ?

i think some places may ice like hell. tommorrow afternoon even just outside boston? what a traffic disaster.

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My initial thought is that event #2 is too fast moving to rival the snowfall maxes NE just had. I'm thinking more like 12"-16" in the max band...... I think the 12Z NAM extrapolated would be on board.

Some said the same thing about the HECS.....if it bombs, you are going to have 20"+ is 12 hrs somewhere.

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well on the twister wx site the 12z gfs looks like it wants to give me around 6 inches of snow......or more.

HPC last nite was talking about a blend of GFS/ECWMF profiles.......so interesting stuff setting up especially N of pike and W of 495....but perhaps even W of 128 ?

i think some places may ice like hell. tommorrow afternoon even just outside boston? what a traffic disaster.

Yeah this is definitely looking ugly..especially up your way. A colder solution aloft like the GFS is probably a better scenario since it'd mean more in the way of snow and less in the way of ice. Of course there could be those sneaky warm layers around 900 mb. Ugh..such a tough, tough forecast.

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I'm not worried about the extent of QPF. Lots of moisture involved, along with large scale isentropic lift, should yield widespread 0.75"+

Becoming more confident in a 8-12" deal for S NH and N MA with 0.25-0.5" ice accretion across central MA - southwest MA - northern CT

Bullish. I like a little extra upglide enhancement too over what the 12z EC has, but I'm not 100% convinced we remain all snow yet. I could see us wasting some tail end precip on light ZR garbage. The 4 to 5km 12z NMM/ARW WRFs are very juicy for us and cold. They would verify your amounts.
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I love how the NNE guys can switch back and forth between threads, I want to start a South of Mass/ NH line sub forum to the NE sub forum which is a sub forum of American Weather or maybe start my own website and call it 42 south 41 north, j/ k Brian What's our WRF model say?

These aren't SNE threads. They're New England storm discussions. SNE and NNE have general discussion/obs threads. :huh:

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Some said the same thing about the HECS.....if it bombs, you are going to have 20"+ is 12 hrs somewhere.

i would add to that ...that last weekend turned from a MECS to an HECS because the H5 low captured the surface low...and slowed it significantly thus changing it from 10-12 hours to 15-18.

ray earlier the other day you said effectively that you gave up on tommorrow's storm cause it will not be much in wilmington......seeing your up by tewksbury line it looks like the gfs and euro would give you 3-6 inches.

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i would add to that ...that last weekend turned from a MECS to an HECS because the H5 low captured the surface low...and slowed it significantly thus changing it from 10-12 hours to 15-18.

ray earlier the other day you said effectively that you gave up on tommorrow's storm cause it will not be much in wilmington......seeing your up by tewksbury line it looks like the gfs and euro would give you 3-6 inches.

I've thought 2-5" for a couple of days.

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