codfishsnowman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The details on thurs night/fri am seem kind of vague but i notice Albany forecast discussion was interested in it so was upton and to a lesser degree box. Does it look like a few inches of snow for most of us? This swfe is too complicated lol what happened to the big one for sun/mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12 Z GFS appears to be colder than the NAM aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM too warm most of CT for snow. Even has BDL going above freezing sometime tomorrow afternoon at surface with a southerly breeze all day.. OXC progged to get no snow as 900mb is above freezing by onset of precip and surface quickly warms to freezing between 10am and 1pm prob but they do get .31" of freezing rain.. WARNING CRITERIA.. BDL gets somewhere between .40 and .50 inches of freezing rain with minimal snow/sleet.. In my experience surface temps are always overdone in these situations.. So we are looking at a major freezing rain situation tonight and tomorrow morning.. I think ICE STORM WARNINGS will be posted tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 what did 00z EURO show for CT? precip amounts/types Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Dec 2007 was close, but the high is not as optimally placed. Thanks, was thinking 07 too, lots more ice this time in the interior it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Thanks, was thinking 07 too, lots more ice this time in the interior it seems. I'd be suprised if the 12z EURO holds serve in giving ORH 1' of snow......it's gonna trend warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So we are looking at a major freezing rain situation tonight and tomorrow morning.. I think ICE STORM WARNINGS will be posted tonight.. Agreed completely. In just about every single ice event I have tracked across CT, temps ended up colder than even the NAM. The NAM is marginal, but knock 1-2F off and there you have a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I like ice..but I like snow alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Every local news station as 2-4" for my area. BOX has 4-8 with a winter storm watch. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Agreed completely. In just about every single ice event I have tracked across CT, temps ended up colder than even the NAM. The NAM is marginal, but knock 1-2F off and there you have a major ice storm. Ice even at the shore of CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Got tix for todays' Uconn/Villanova ESPN game at 3:30 at Uconn.. Can't wait. Look for me on TV..i'll be tossing weenies onto the court Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'd be suprised if the 12z EURO holds serve in giving ORH 1' of snow......it's gonna trend warmer. Ray--why would you say that? Looks like the GFS has headed east/colder......(maybe that's reason enough! lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ice even at the shore of CT? NAM has KGON getting to 34 by onset of precip and 40-42 during peak of storm HVN 33 by onset 39-41 during peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ray--why would you say that? Looks like the GFS has headed east/colder......(maybe that's reason enough! lol) I'm just sold on this being a classic swfe, regardless of of a few weenie runs. Could I be wrong...sure. I admit that I have to rethink this if the EURO doesn't trend warmer at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM has KGON getting to 34 by onset of precip and 40-42 during peak of storm thanks very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ice even at the shore of CT? NO ICE FOR YOU!!! (in soup nazi tone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 SW Ct. fares much better than the rest of the south coast, much further away from the open ocean with a very quick gain in modest elevation, this will be a classic "colder than modeled" solution. I like 2-4 of snow here followed by ip then rain. I will have a north wind draining right down the Housatonic valley, the miracle winter will continue followed by 3-6 of powder on Friday and a mega bomb next sunday/monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm just sold on this being a classic swfe, regardless of of a few weenie runs. Could I be wrong...sure. I admit that I have to rethink this if the EURO doesn't trend warmer at 12z. okay. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I like ice..but I like snow alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 okay. thx I like the GFS in this.....EURO will probably roll in similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Got tix for todays' Uconn/Villanova ESPN game at 3:30 at Uconn.. Can't wait. Look for me on TV..i'll be tossing weenies onto the court Cool--go Huskies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 SW Ct. fares much better than the rest of the south coast, much further away from the open ocean with a very quick gain in modest elevation, this will be a classic "colder than modeled" solution. I like 2-4 of snow here followed by ip then rain. I will have a north wind draining right down the Housatonic valley, the miracle winter will continue followed by 3-6 of powder on Friday and a mega bomb next sunday/monday. The mid levels don't care how close to the ocean you are. I think 2-4" is realistic, though.....probably more toward the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The mid levels don't care how close to the ocean you are. I think 2-4" is realistic, though.....probably more toward the lower end. Out this way, I'm more concerend about qpf amounts than temps. Give me some of that NAM qpf lovin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The mid levels don't care how close to the ocean you are. I think 2-4" is realistic, though.....probably more toward the lower end. We are going to switch over, I am talking about surface temps staying below 32 here a little longer than say the ri or se mass coasts or cape cod. I want to see the coastal stronger, I hope it goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Got tix for todays' Uconn/Villanova ESPN game at 3:30 at Uconn.. Can't wait. Look for me on TV..i'll be tossing my weenie on the court Be careful they might arrest you for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like there's some water in them thar clouds. Where will it drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have fond memories of a crust of ice over deep snow as a kid. Trying to walk on it, see if you can make it without postholing. It looks like I'll see it again tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow, Canadian global is way east...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GGEM looks further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Cold is winning the battle AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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