NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 "nonsense" Are you talking about the after affects of last weekends snows, where he was constantly being challenged on the end result of accumulated snow? That whole scene seemed relentless, but to each his own. I personally can't get up for pounding on folks who do the forecasting. It is what it is - forecasting. If someone says I may see 10", and I only get 3", I will be most likely be angry, but not constantly rail on the dude for his call. Being a pro forecaster has to be one of the biggest headache jobs ever. I know at least from the perspective of the general public, they seem to not understand the fact that the word "forecast" is part of the equation, which alone signals - maybe I'm right, or maybe I'm wrong. But, if I'm wrong, I can only hope that I'm not 100 percent off base. Of course it's a whole other deal all together if the forecaster is confident enough to guarantee something that he can't deliver. That is another discussion. I think there's way too much dependence in forecasting, including the notion to take what forecasters say as gospel. One can't always believe, or put a 100 percent stock in what they see on t.v., or hear on the radio. Just my 2 cents (1 cent - adjusted for inflation) [/rant off] And when they do a great job like the storm we just had...nobody congratulates them. You only hear the gen public complain...that's about all the gen public is good for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 from nyc phl thread appears gfs coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Where's that, Bob? My house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS has a nice slug of snow away from the s coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 My house. What's your depth right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is the advance of the qpf a lot slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What's your depth right now? Like 8"-10" on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS has a nice slug of snow away from the s coast. Definitely holding the cold longer than the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 "nonsense" Are you talking about the after affects of last weekends snows, where he was constantly being challenged on the end result of accumulated snow? That whole scene seemed relentless, but to each his own. I personally can't get up for pounding on folks who do the forecasting. It is what it is - forecasting. If someone says I may see 10", and I only get 3", I will be most likely be angry, but not constantly rail on the dude for his call. Being a pro forecaster has to be one of the biggest headache jobs ever. I know at least from the perspective of the general public, they seem to not understand the fact that the word "forecast" is part of the equation, which alone signals - maybe I'm right, or maybe I'm wrong. But, if I'm wrong, I can only hope that I'm not 100 percent off base. Of course it's a whole other deal all together if the forecaster is confident enough to guarantee something that he can't deliver. That is another discussion. I think there's way too much dependence in forecasting, including the notion to take what forecasters say as gospel. One can't always believe, or put a 100 percent stock in what they see on t.v., or hear on the radio. Just my 2 cents (1 cent - adjusted for inflation) [/rant off] Nah it was some other stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nope. I still think 6-12 out there and up here. 4-8 for you. I'm thinking 2-5" and 5-10" up your way and Dendrite. We'll see, either way should be wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Definitely holding the cold longer than the NAM is. I would love that, but I also worry the GFS may be too far east. The euro wasn't too far off at all, so maybe a track near ACK could happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Definitely holding the cold longer than the NAM is. Looks a fair amount east of the 00z run. Also shifts the qpf shield to the east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Very little qpf up this way, But it would be snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I guarantee you it reverts at 12Z...I've just sent an email to someone I know who works with NCEP to ask if anyone has complained about how poor the off hour NAM runs have been recently, and I'm going back into last winter....we've seen crazy solutions at 06 and 18 often defying the trends that occurred 2-3 runs before only to see the next 12 or 00 run go right back to trending that way again...I'm thinking perhaps some data may not be getting in to these runs...obviously there is no balloon launch but the off hour NAM has been atrocious compared to the off hour GFS and the 06Z GFS that just came in looks more like the 00Z NAM....that said I would still base any forecasts on the 00Z NAM until the 12Z says otherwise. Well, had I not gone to bed, then I would have expressed my disagreement and I would have been right. The NAM pulled the same sh** that I suggested it would yesterday.....one really weenie run, then pulled the rug out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ORH is primetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Does this sort of set up allow for some of the traditional coastal storm features, i.e. banding, deformation, ccb? or does the primary and warming of the midlevels fook it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GFS is pretty darn cold again...a lot like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The BOX map that only had me 1" is wrong; I'll go on record as stating such. The 00z EURO was too cold and I virtually guarantee that the 12z run will be warmer. 2-5" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As much as I hate to say it..NAM may be too amped and juiced..If euro continues cold..that's the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And when they do a great job like the storm we just had...nobody congratulates them. You only hear the gen public complain...that's about all the gen public is good for. So true. Even when you are right, they complain. When I was doing TV at LSC, some guy at the grocery store recognized me. He was angry because "I made the 15 inches of snow happen" because I predicted it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 we are defintely entering the old adage 'its snows where it wants to snow' territory now. if there was any doubt before, there shouldnt be anymore. truthfully, you guys have no business pulling off a winter storm out of this with a primary north of the lakes and a +NAO, but somehow the pattern manages to compensate itself perfectly enough to do that. i remember what that felt like in 07-08, everything just kept turning into more snow like white gold. helluva winter for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just a little different in qpf totals. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The colder scenarios make much more sense..which would also mean less qpf out into NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As much as I hate to say it..NAM may be too amped and juiced..If euro continues cold..that's the way to go The NAM blows in SWFEs.......if the EURO hodls the course at 12z, then I'll consider buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I would love that, but I also worry the GFS may be too far east. The euro wasn't too far off at all, so maybe a track near ACK could happen? I haven't paid much attention to the models over the past few days so I have no idea what's going to happen. All I do know is there is a really cold antecedent airmass that may allow for some sleet/icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The BOX map that only had me 1" is wrong; I'll go on record as stating such. The 00z EURO was too cold and I virtually guarantee that the 12z run will be warmer. 2-5" IMBY. I asked this before maybe you or Will remember, last SWFE with antecedent 12-18 cover and temps in the teens , any similar setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Smeone setup a canvas below the highest building in Knox, Ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I asked this before maybe you or Will remember, last SWFE with antecedent 12-18 cover and temps in the teens , any similar setups? Dec 2007 was close, but the high is not as optimally placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Smeone setup canvas below the highest building in Knox, Ny. That might be any two-story house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That might be any two-story house. Not much elevation for a hill-town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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