40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 WOW......EURO drops about 1.3" of qpf here and well over half of it looks to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM, SREF and GFS soundings could not look any different from one another in Bufkit..... What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 WOW......EURO drops about 1.3" of qpf here and well over half of it looks to be snow. The one major consistency of the models....over an inch of qpf but everything else is vastly different..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM, SREF and GFS soundings could not look any different from one another in Bufkit..... What a mess. I think I'd lean colder, since the EURO is nodding toward the NAM....EURO is all snow for ORH....WOW. I think we'll see a little reversal at the last moment, but this looks like a net gainer for most, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'll tell you what, I entered this examination of the 00z suite with a great deal of skepticism, but it is starteling how similarly the NAM and EURO now seem in the eyes of this hobbyist. I'll wait to see if this holds through 12z, but they both have a major snow storm for much of interior sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And just like that, the 06z NAM is a mainly rain event....I figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If there isn't a Winter Storm Watch at KLEB over to Dentriteland, I'd be fairly surprised... Edit: yea, they're issuing them for all areas from the immediate coast... Expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yup, NAM is much warmer at 850 now... Compares the current 6z run with the same projected time as the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yup, NAM is much warmer at 850 now... Compares the current 6z run with the same projected time as the 00z run I think it's just because it doesn't go quite as nuts with the low. The low isn't any further N and the high is actually a little better....qpf also down this run. The H5 vort was also much more consolidated on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think it's just because it doesn't go quite as nuts with the low. The low isn't any further N and the high is actually a little better....qpf also down this run. qpf is beefed up to the west... whatever that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NHZ001>009-171700-/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0002.110118T1400Z-110119T1100Z/NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLEBROOK...BERLIN...LANCASTER...LITTLETON...NORTH CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD... HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH340 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING: SNOW WILL ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MIXED SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A THIN COATING OF ICE. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Burlington has also issued WSW's for their southern (to the east) zones... http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch Edit: From Taunton, WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR HARTFORD COUNTY CT...MASSACHUSETTS W OF WORCESTER...AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like 3-5" here then ice ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a nice 6-10" refresher here, perhap a bit more. The words "snow heavy at times" never grows old. The beat goes on. CoT FTW!! Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 11. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Low around 27. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And just like that, the 06z NAM is a mainly rain event....I figured. I guarantee you it reverts at 12Z...I've just sent an email to someone I know who works with NCEP to ask if anyone has complained about how poor the off hour NAM runs have been recently, and I'm going back into last winter....we've seen crazy solutions at 06 and 18 often defying the trends that occurred 2-3 runs before only to see the next 12 or 00 run go right back to trending that way again...I'm thinking perhaps some data may not be getting in to these runs...obviously there is no balloon launch but the off hour NAM has been atrocious compared to the off hour GFS and the 06Z GFS that just came in looks more like the 00Z NAM....that said I would still base any forecasts on the 00Z NAM until the 12Z says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Dropped to 0 but have bounced up to 5/-2. Looks like the weekend threat is trending better again. Who would ever have guessed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 EC is a hair over 1" QPF...all snow here. EC ensembles are over 0.75" QPF...all snow here. 6z NAM is about 0.85" QPF...all snow here. 6z GFS looks like a SN to Mix to SN scenario...maybe 0.50" worth of SN here. I suppose I relatively have to like how I sit right now...especially since Fri/Sun are probably off the table for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 qpf is beefed up to the west... whatever that means. That means it's good. Bit of a temp bust over night here. 6.7/-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 .I'd expect the pm package to upgrade TOL,Windham counties and NW RI to Warning... Euro is cold..6z GFS came in colder...No way the hills in CT get above freezing. Looks like 2-4 snow/sleet..then all zr whatever qpf is left after the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a nice 6-10" refresher here, perhap a bit more. The words "snow heavy at times" never grows old. The beat goes on. CoT FTW!! Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 11. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Low around 27. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Pete--first, I hate the c/p forecasts. But reading that, you'd have a higher range. Depending on the make up of the nighttime, you've got several inches of snow potential. Of course, that's mitigated by it not being forecated to be all snow which will compact things. But, just saying the qpf amounts would support more than the 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I haven't been on much the last couple days but hoping to pull off 6" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You would flip to some ice, and then perhaps end as snow. It has a swfe look to it, with 850 0C line starting to align from wnw-ese where the further ne you are, the better you maintain snow. The profiles may be very borderline in the mid levels for CT, so it's tough to tell how much snow would fall. There could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Just be happy it trended a little cooler. Yeah I was just looking at that on the freebies..Euro is cold..and would ensure all of interior Ct stay 100% frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I haven't been on much the last couple days but hoping to pull off 6" here. I think you will easily pull 6+. What are your thoughts south of you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think you will easily pull 6+. What are your thoughts south of you? I really haven't looked all that closely yet. I do have mostly frozen for Union. I'm going to try and take a closer look at snowfall potential today. It will probably be typical of these types of front end thump setups...advisory snow there and the cold air damming areas of N ORH cty/W MA, and SW NH get 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For those of us in the interior--let us enjoy and get the generators ready. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...HARTFORD COUNTY CT...MASSACHUSETTS WEST OF WORCESTER...AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...HEAVIEST NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE SNOW IN HARTFORD COUNTY CT AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE TUESDAY AND WILL SWITCH OVER TO A MIX MIDDAY. PRECIP WILL SWITCH BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...BECOMING TRECHEROUS...PARTICULARLY WHERE ICE HAS ACCUMULATED BY THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW AND ICE COMBINED COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I really haven't looked all that closely yet. I do have mostly frozen for Union. I'm going to try and take a closer look at snowfall potential today. It will probably be typical of these types of front end thump setups...advisory snow there and the cold air damming areas of N ORH cty/W MA, and SW NH get 6"+. Yeah exactly what I was thinking..colder scenario will win out...esp how strong this antecedent cold air is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Pete--first, I hate the c/p forecasts. But reading that, you'd have a higher range. Depending on the make up of the nighttime, you've got several inches of snow potential. Of course, that's mitigated by it not being forecated to be all snow which will compact things. But, just saying the qpf amounts would support more than the 6-10. I'm hoping to end up with an 8-12" snowfall which looks entirely possible. I just want to avoid any prolonged period of zr. Spent that better part of yesterday skiing in the trees and a nice dense snowfall will make conditions just about perfect. To get things skunked with a thick hide of zr would blow. Don't think that will happen at this point. Regardless, we're set to add to an already deep snowpack and that's fantastic. Still feel the end of the week could deliver the goods as well. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For those of us in the interior--let us enjoy and get the generators ready. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...HARTFORD COUNTY CT...MASSACHUSETTS WEST OF WORCESTER...AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...HEAVIEST NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE SNOW IN HARTFORD COUNTY CT AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE TUESDAY AND WILL SWITCH OVER TO A MIX MIDDAY. PRECIP WILL SWITCH BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...BECOMING TRECHEROUS...PARTICULARLY WHERE ICE HAS ACCUMULATED BY THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW AND ICE COMBINED COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. I don't think you or I will see much in the way of zr Mike. No generator needed, just gas up the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Forecasting amounts with this sure looks like it will be tricky. 5.3/-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm hoping to end up with an 8-12" snowfall which looks entirely possible. I just want to avoid any prolonged period of zr. Spent that better part of yesterday skiing in the trees and a nice dense snowfall will make conditions just about perfect. To get things skunked with a thick hide of zr would blow. Don't think that will happen at this point. Regardless, we're set to add to an already deep snowpack and that's fantastic. Still feel the end of the week could deliver the goods as well. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. If my flight to Jamica takes off on Wednesday morning, I might be returning to a disaster on my driveway on Friday night. My elderly in-laws are staying here with my daughter; don't expect them to fire up the snowblower. I'm not concerned about that, but man, I hope they don't have to fire up the generator. Did the EC lose the Sunday/Monday system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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