CT Rain Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wonder what the euro has in store. We've seen this before... NAM goes crazy and too cold in mid levels... but nails the temp structure in the BL by keeping it cold. This could be one of those cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS is almost the same as 18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We've seen this before... NAM goes crazy and too cold in mid levels... but nails the temp structure in the BL by keeping it cold. This could be one of those cases. It's going nuts with the surface low, and as that happens, the 850 low closes off and reduces all the srly inflow. I think the NAM is a little too nuts as well, but the euro should be interesting. There has been a trend overall to come in a little cooler with all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ryan, that anchorwoman is looking at you like she wants to make you her boy toy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It's going nuts with the surface low, and as that happens, the 850 low closes off and reduces all the srly inflow. I think the NAM is a little too nuts as well, but the euro should be interesting. There has been a trend overall to come in a little cooler with all models. Yeah when it gets overly amped up it starts resulting in excessive cooling in mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow...Burbank had 6+ inside 495...bullish. Storm possible Sunday....say it ain't so! I cannot be delayed...9:40PM flight to connection flight in Zurich to Florence. EDIT: GFS doesn't have it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow...Burbank had 6+ inside 495...bullish. Storm possible Sunday....say it ain't so! I cannot be delayed...9:40PM flight to connection flight in Zurich to Florence. EDIT: GFS doesn't have it... GFS has a Friday event gradually returning. Swissair BOS-ZRH? Been on that often but not in about 15 years. In those days, I'd drive from Zurich to Italy. Time was easier to have then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 UKMET is cold. Verbatim snowstorm all the way to Boston. I'll probably get out just ahead of it but perhaps the airlines will pre-emptively cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS has a Friday event gradually returning. Swissair BOS-ZRH? Been on that often but not in about 15 years. In those days, I'd drive from Zurich to Italy. Time was easier to have then... Yes...I've only flown once and it was Swissair. I thought they did a good job. We took off during the snow/icestorm on 2/14/2007. We were the last plane to leave before they closed Logan because of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS MOS for KLEB continues to do a lot of "Z"... It's been honking that for a while... and I got massively burned last year in a borderline even going against a warmer MOS reader for KLEB... Granted that was surface temps, not what is sure to be a fully frozen event here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RGEM wasn't too shabby. 1"+ qpf max in WNE and ENY through 48 hours. It's going nuts with the surface low, and as that happens, the 850 low closes off and reduces all the srly inflow. I think the NAM is a little too nuts as well, but the euro should be interesting. There has been a trend overall to come in a little cooler with all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 UKMET is cold. Verbatim snowstorm all the way to Boston. I'll probably get out just ahead of it but perhaps the airlines will pre-emptively cancel? Nice. On that note...heading to bed. Final solutions tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RGEM is a freakin bomb here... Going to be an inch plus of what I believe is SN. If it continues snowing past 48, which is should... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Whats that the St. Gothard Pass from Switzerland to Italy? I took a train down than way in the 90s..... But we used to drive through the Brenner Pass from Austria to Italy...nice times back in the 70s. GFS has a Friday event gradually returning. Swissair BOS-ZRH? Been on that often but not in about 15 years. In those days, I'd drive from Zurich to Italy. Time was easier to have then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah on that the 10 mm line would be about .4" and the 25 mm line is about 1 inch.... RGEM is a freakin bomb here... Going to be an inch plus of what I believe is SN. If it continues snowing past 48, which is should... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah on that the 10 mm line would be about .4" and the 25 mm line is about 1 inch.... Right, right around 20 here (based on the color maps not shown). And I would anticipate based on the low position and rh that it would continue after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM appears to be showing something very similar in terms of ptype and amounts up here... maybe a little less but 20-30 mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Any word from Will recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro a little colder and slightly east. Virtually a wet snow bomb to BOS through 00z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro a little colder and slightly east. Virtually a wet snow bomb to BOS through 00z Wednesday. precip amounts wud be greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 precip amounts wud be greatly appreciated. It gives several inches to HFD before it tips to sleet perhaps. BOS could have the same before temps near 850 and the surface warm. ORH easily over 6" this run, but it's tough to get specific without looking at the thermal profiles. ORH in theory could see near a foot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It gives several inches to HFD before it tips to sleet perhaps. BOS could have the same before temps near 850 and the surface warm. ORH easily over 6" this run, but it's tough to get specific without looking at the thermal profiles. ORH in theory could see near a foot here. Sorry for the IMBY questions Scott but how does it look west of HFD? Do we stay all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sorry for the IMBY questions Scott but how does it look west of HFD? Do we stay all snow? You would flip to some ice, and then perhaps end as snow. It has a swfe look to it, with 850 0C line starting to align from wnw-ese where the further ne you are, the better you maintain snow. The profiles may be very borderline in the mid levels for CT, so it's tough to tell how much snow would fall. There could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Just be happy it trended a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I figure I'll ask (I hate doing imby, but no public euro), but qpf up at KLEB? THanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro also has the sneaky little threat for Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I figure I'll ask (I hate doing imby, but no public euro), but qpf up at KLEB? THanks in advance. Oh you're LEB..lol. You have just over 0.75" all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Oh you're LEB..lol. You have just over 0.75" all snow. Sorry, should put it in my profile. I go between N. Bronx and Hanover. Thanks a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You would flip to some ice, and then perhaps end as snow. It has a swfe look to it, with 850 0C line starting to align from wnw-ese where the further ne you are, the better you maintain snow. The profiles may be very borderline in the mid levels for CT, so it's tough to tell how much snow would fall. There could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Just be happy it trended a little cooler. Haha thanks Scott. The less rain the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I see a dangerous trap that I feel many are going to fall into on the heels of the NAM's huge mesoscale win in the HECS; that system underwent incredible bombogensis as a result of the polar air interacting with the ocean, which is a mesoscale phenomenon and directly in wheelhouse of the NAM....John did a great job foretelling that. This sytem, however is a far different animal and in sharp contrast to the HECS in that it represents the NAM's greatest deficiency...swfes. We have seen time and time again that the NAM will not drive the warm advestion far enough n in these, so I'd be careful that it doesn't over trend in the cold direction, before correcting itself to a degree at the last moment. lol at the NAM. Even BOS is flirting with all snow on this run. I like the little contour of 0C 850 air wrapped around Rt 128..lol. Pretty tough to get much ice away from the coast when the 850 low track is se of you. That's usually mostly snow, but the NAM may be a little extreme on this run. Patriots? Who dat? lol the NAM is almost all snow here in HFD. Wow. I knew this was coming.....heavy, heavy caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 all this excitement for 6-10 inches of snow? You're turning into me. lol With the snowpack we already have, I'll take every flake that I can get.....to sieze a mod event from the jaws of flodding would be an EPIC win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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