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Midweek Storm DISCO


DomNH

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We've seen this before... NAM goes crazy and too cold in mid levels... but nails the temp structure in the BL by keeping it cold.

This could be one of those cases.

It's going nuts with the surface low, and as that happens, the 850 low closes off and reduces all the srly inflow. I think the NAM is a little too nuts as well, but the euro should be interesting. There has been a trend overall to come in a little cooler with all models.

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It's going nuts with the surface low, and as that happens, the 850 low closes off and reduces all the srly inflow. I think the NAM is a little too nuts as well, but the euro should be interesting. There has been a trend overall to come in a little cooler with all models.

Yeah when it gets overly amped up it starts resulting in excessive cooling in mid levels.

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Wow...Burbank had 6+ inside 495...bullish.

Storm possible Sunday....say it ain't so! I cannot be delayed...9:40PM flight to connection flight in Zurich to Florence.

EDIT: GFS doesn't have it...

GFS has a Friday event gradually returning.

Swissair BOS-ZRH? Been on that often but not in about 15 years. In those days, I'd drive from Zurich to Italy. Time was easier to have then...

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GFS has a Friday event gradually returning.

Swissair BOS-ZRH? Been on that often but not in about 15 years. In those days, I'd drive from Zurich to Italy. Time was easier to have then...

Yes...I've only flown once and it was Swissair. I thought they did a good job. We took off during the snow/icestorm on 2/14/2007. We were the last plane to leave before they closed Logan because of ice.

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RGEM wasn't too shabby. 1"+ qpf max in WNE and ENY through 48 hours.

520_50.gif

It's going nuts with the surface low, and as that happens, the 850 low closes off and reduces all the srly inflow. I think the NAM is a little too nuts as well, but the euro should be interesting. There has been a trend overall to come in a little cooler with all models.

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Whats that the St. Gothard Pass from Switzerland to Italy? I took a train down than way in the 90s..... But we used to drive through the Brenner Pass from Austria to Italy...nice times back in the 70s.

GFS has a Friday event gradually returning.

Swissair BOS-ZRH? Been on that often but not in about 15 years. In those days, I'd drive from Zurich to Italy. Time was easier to have then...

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precip amounts wud be greatly appreciated.

It gives several inches to HFD before it tips to sleet perhaps. BOS could have the same before temps near 850 and the surface warm. ORH easily over 6" this run, but it's tough to get specific without looking at the thermal profiles. ORH in theory could see near a foot here.

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It gives several inches to HFD before it tips to sleet perhaps. BOS could have the same before temps near 850 and the surface warm. ORH easily over 6" this run, but it's tough to get specific without looking at the thermal profiles. ORH in theory could see near a foot here.

Sorry for the IMBY questions Scott but how does it look west of HFD? Do we stay all snow?

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Sorry for the IMBY questions Scott but how does it look west of HFD? Do we stay all snow?

You would flip to some ice, and then perhaps end as snow. It has a swfe look to it, with 850 0C line starting to align from wnw-ese where the further ne you are, the better you maintain snow. The profiles may be very borderline in the mid levels for CT, so it's tough to tell how much snow would fall. There could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Just be happy it trended a little cooler.

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You would flip to some ice, and then perhaps end as snow. It has a swfe look to it, with 850 0C line starting to align from wnw-ese where the further ne you are, the better you maintain snow. The profiles may be very borderline in the mid levels for CT, so it's tough to tell how much snow would fall. There could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Just be happy it trended a little cooler.

Haha thanks Scott. The less rain the better.

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I see a dangerous trap that I feel many are going to fall into on the heels of the NAM's huge mesoscale win in the HECS; that system underwent incredible bombogensis as a result of the polar air interacting with the ocean, which is a mesoscale phenomenon and directly in wheelhouse of the NAM....John did a great job foretelling that.

This sytem, however is a far different animal and in sharp contrast to the HECS in that it represents the NAM's greatest deficiency...swfes.

We have seen time and time again that the NAM will not drive the warm advestion far enough n in these, so I'd be careful that it doesn't over trend in the cold direction, before correcting itself to a degree at the last moment.

lol at the NAM.

Even BOS is flirting with all snow on this run.

I like the little contour of 0C 850 air wrapped around Rt 128..lol. Pretty tough to get much ice away from the coast when the 850 low track is se of you. That's usually mostly snow, but the NAM may be a little extreme on this run.

Patriots? Who dat?

lol the NAM is almost all snow here in HFD.

Wow.

I knew this was coming.....heavy, heavy caution.

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