MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nice ... 18z GFS comes in cooler again. Good runs from the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 As warm as it gets at KLEB... very iffy, but this seems like a wet snow to me and plenty of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Taunton is taking a while to get out the long term discussion. Maybe debating on WSW for NH zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Quite a QPF bomb as well .. large swath of 1.50"+ through SNE to SW Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Taunton is taking a while to get out the long term discussion. Maybe debating on WSW for NH zones? Could be. GYX mentioned the possibility but decided against due to uncertainty. As a weenie, I think they'd be warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Bangin the drum....this comes in colder for probably everyone. Think about the antecedent conditions. That has to make a difference, right? First few tenths of qpf should be high ratio. Could have 5 inches with .3 before the wet heavy snow starts. This is seriously cold air. North of many of you but low tonight of -2 and high tomorrow of 13, low tomorrow night of 0 and then snow midday. Why wouldn't the Euro be right on this storm? Take the Euro and shade a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Taunton is taking a while to get out the long term discussion. Maybe debating on WSW for NH zones? 36 hrs before the first flakes fall? My guess is they're watching the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Bangin the drum....this comes in colder for probably everyone. Think about the antecedent conditions. That has to make a difference, right? First few tenths of qpf should be high ratio. Could have 5 inches with .3 before the wet heavy snow starts. This is seriously cold air. North of many of you but low tonight of -2 and high tomorrow of 13, low tomorrow night of 0 and then snow midday. Why wouldn't the Euro be right on this storm? Take the Euro and shade a little cooler. Do remember that ratios often have little to do with actual temperatures so long as they're not 32. Level of highest omegas usually are a much bigger influence. Last storm, KLEB was at 19/20 for most of the storm, and we had maybe 12:1 ratios... That said, based on the GFS and Euro, this looks like it could be yet another foot in this area... So long as the midlevels hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Quite a QPF bomb as well .. large swath of 1.50"+ through SNE to SW Maine. Southern Stream moving into very cold air up your way and mine and out to Pet and Mike. You realize it is within the realm of possibility that we wake up tomorrow looking at a 12-18 snow bomb for some of us. Would not surprise me. Some models were showing that a couple days ago. I think at least some of us hit double figures on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Southern Stream moving into very cold air up your way and mine and out to Pet and Mike. You realize it is within the realm of possibility that we wake up tomorrow looking at a 12-18 snow bomb for some of us. Would not surprise me. Some models were showing that a couple days ago. I think at least some of us hit double figures on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Do remember that ratios often have little to do with actual temperatures so long as they're not 32. Level of highest omegas usually are a much bigger influence. Last storm, KLEB was at 19/20 for most of the storm, and we had maybe 12:1 ratios... That said, based on the GFS and Euro, this looks like it could be yet another foot in this area... So long as the midlevels hold. Yes I really don't understand ratios much...I know cold air helps but is not the only factor. vv is important? Wouldn't the first burst be some pretty stong omegas due to the temp contrast (if I am understanding that correctly)? Was up your way today, stopped for lunch at Yama in H'over. Good Korean food. Beautiful up there as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 EVT says cya to Kevin's snowpack AS THE LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT E-SE WINDS TO BRING TEMPS UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP TEMPS COLDER INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This looks like what conn coasters are more accustomed to. In a sitiuation like this, what we like to see down here is front end dump! followed by dryslot to protect us from the rain and then hours of drizzle. We never really mix here for long it can be counted by minutes before the transition to rain so in many cases dryslotting saves us from our snow washing away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I learned from best Kevin.... There is good reason to bang the drum on this one and you should know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 36 hrs before the first flakes fall? My guess is they're watching the game yeah very unlikely. My bad: I thought GYX did put a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes I really don't understand ratios much...I know cold air helps but is not the only factor. vv is important? Wouldn't the first burst be some pretty stong omegas due to the temp contrast (if I am understanding that correctly)? Was up your way today, stopped for lunch at Yama in H'over. Good Korean food. Beautiful up there as well.... Yes, that would be right in my neighborhood! About a 10 minute walk from dorm. I suggest Jewel of India (if you like Indian). It's perhaps the only restaurant in Hanover that could survive in NYC (my other home). Brian (Dentrite) is the master of ratios. Here's what i think is a nice starting point for snow growth http://alabamastormtrackers.com/2010/01/07/forecasting-snow-issues-and-the-results/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 EVT says cya to Kevin's snowpack AS THE LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT E-SE WINDS TO BRING TEMPS UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP TEMPS COLDER INLAND. You're mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 EVT says cya to Kevin's snowpack AS THE LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT E-SE WINDS TO BRING TEMPS UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP TEMPS COLDER INLAND. LOL..I disagree with most of that AFD ..the only model that even had that scenario was the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 LOL..I disagree with most of that AFD ..the only model that even had that scenario was the 12z GFS and the euro's 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 and the euro's 2m temps No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No Well the Euro 2m temps are warm for our area... but I've noticed before that the Euro 2m temps tend to be warm in these kind of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 and the euro's 2m temps I wouldn't trust the Euro's 2m temps. I believe it has a bit of warm bias. I'm not a huge fan of using 2m temps from any model really. Best bet is to interpret from mass fields, winds, temps aloft, present snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thumpidity thump ice ice baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like the snow to sleet and ice could really solidify the spack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS is damn cold for Litchfield County. Ice, ice, ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS is damn cold for Litchfield County. Ice, ice, ice. Think all the hills in all of the state need to make sure have contingency plans for power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like the snow to sleet and ice could really solidify the spack post storm it will be the best of times for some and the worst of times (poss. for others) some are gonna really add to their pack and some inside SE SNE could take a beating .....rain....dp's >35 with some nice fog weehours/ wed am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Pats look like dogsh*t so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Think all the hills in all of the state need to make sure have contingency plans for power nah it's not going to be epic maybe 1/2" accretion at worst and that's not enough to cause major problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Pats look like dogsh*t so far... Unconcerned. Two tds and we have the lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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