Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 They were in some real solid mesoscale banding for a period of time so I could see it. But yeah a touch on the high side. That makes the last 3 snow events last week where they had the highest around...interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That makes the last 3 snow events last week where they had the highest around...interesting to say the least The observer there seems on the ball most of the time... the event before they definitely were in a good spot though. I imagine your depth is probably spot on with their depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The observer there seems on the ball most of the time... the event before they definitely were in a good spot though. I imagine your depth is probably spot on with their depth. Is that theu guy that's been the long time co-op guy for like 20yrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Is that theu guy that's been the long time co-op guy for like 20yrs? yeah that coop has been there for a while... one of the most reliable in the state. If he's clearing every 6 hours (like he's supposed to) then the slightly higher totals would make sense. He's also in a good spot at 750 feet east of you a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Well I'm feeling good with the Euro giving me 1 inch plus QPF all or mostly snow, the GFS .5+ as snow...not caring about the NAM so much now unless it trends in my direction then I ride it. Just have a hard time seeing this not verify a little colder than models show given a 20 inch snow pack, below zero temps tonight and a very cold night tomorrow before the clouds move in. I'd think the first .3 of qpf is higher ratio snow given the cold air. The ratio would worsen during the storm but we might get 4-5 inches quickly with strong waa. Really hard to not be optimistic up here. Suspect we all verify a little colder than expected....climo in New England, mid January, deep snowpack and fresh strong antiecedent cold. Correction vector is colder. Erection vector pointing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yeah that coop has been there for a while... one of the most reliable in the state. If he's clearing every 6 hours (like he's supposed to) then the slightly higher totals would make sense. He's also in a good spot at 750 feet east of you a bit. Now to me that isn't necc accurate. Granted it is how much has fallen..but it's not the same as what's on the ground even right after the snow stops..so that explains to me the diff. I think what is on the ground(hard surface) is more accurate than clearing every 6 hrs as far as saying what is on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Now to me that isn't necc accurate. Granted it is how much has fallen..but it's not the same as what's on the ground even right after the snow stops..so that explains to me the diff. I think what is on the ground(hard surface) is more accurate than clearing every 6 hrs as far as saying what is on the ground But that's not how you're supposed to measure. If he's recording snow depth and total snow than what's the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 But that's not how you're supposed to measure. If he's recording snow depth and total snow than what's the difference? I guess my point is if he stuck a ruler (yardstick) in the new snow..would it have said he got 29 new inches of snow? I don't think it would have...Not saying it's not right to do it that way..but it makes sense to some degree I guess as to why totals are higher than those that aren't measuring on a snow board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wednesday could really torch. Ouch. That could be your snow melter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I guess my point is if he stuck a ruler (yardstick) in the new snow..would it have said he got 29 new inches of snow? I don't think it would have...Not saying it's not right to do it that way..but it makes sense to some degree I guess as to why totals are higher than those that aren't measuring on a snow board No, of course not. Saturday AM you could have put a thermometer 6" above the ground and got a temperature 5 degrees colder than at 2 meters. There are observing standards for a reason... so everyone follows them and we can compare apples and apples. If you don't like the standard than just measure both depth and off the board (which is what the coops do as well!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not too worried about the NAM yet. I'm not too worried about the fact that I'm on the .1/.25 line on the NAM. 22.2/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No, of course not. Saturday AM you could have put a thermometer 6" above the ground and got a temperature 5 degrees colder than at 2 meters. There are observing standards for a reason... so everyone follows them and we can compare apples and apples. If you don't like the standard than just measure both depth and off the board (which is what the coops do as well!). Well then which number are they reporting as their snow amount from said storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Well then which number are they reporting as their snow amount from said storm? Off the board... which is how you measure "new" snow. But they also record depth every day so if you wanted to you can just see the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GYX PM update paints a wintery picture. FOR NOW...THE BEST FORECAST GUESS IS THAT FOR THE 36 HOURS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM CONCORD TO FRYEBURG TO LEWISTON AND AUGUSTA. HAVE OPTED NOT TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. ALSO...DESPITE THE WIDE VARIETY OF NASTY PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED...IT IS UNCLEAR THAT ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY ONE TYPE WILL REACH INDIVIDUAL WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA. The one thing to take away from the AFD is that is sucks to be on the immediate coast. lol 22.1/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Off the board... which is how you measure "new" snow. But they also record depth every day so if you wanted to you can just see the difference. SFVC3 had the following obs Tuesday 12z - 7" Depth / 0" New Wednesday 12z - 18" Depth / 12" New Thursday 12z - 32" Depth / 17" New So they had 29" storm total. The change in depth was ~25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 fwiw... euro ensembles are stronger than the op and east too at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The one thing to take away from the AFD is that is sucks to be on the immediate coast. lol 22.1/8 I lived in Saco for a couple of years before heading inland. Nice in summer for the seabreeze, sucky in winter for r/s lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 SFVC3 had the following obs Tuesday 12z - 7" Depth / 0" New Wednesday 12z - 18" Depth / 12" New Thursday 12z - 32" Depth / 17" New So they had 29" storm total. The change in depth was ~25" Which matches exactly what Tolland had 25.5..So I guess I had 29 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Which matches exactly what Tolland had 25.5..So I guess I had 29 lol Yeah you might as well get a board and clear and take water equivalents. I live in too urban of an area to really do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 fwiw... euro ensembles are stronger than the op and east too at 72 hours For the Tuesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 For the Tuesday storm? yeah. ensemble mean has a sub 990 low east of CHH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yeah. ensemble mean has a sub 990 low east of CHH lol I'm guessing though with the warm surge at 850 that wouldn't make much difference for us snowwise would it? Just lock in the cold stronger right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yeah. ensemble mean has a sub 990 low east of CHH lol Give me my canal cutter. 21.6/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm guessing though with the warm surge at 850 that wouldn't make much difference for us snowwise would it? Just lock in the cold stronger right? Yeah. It's pretty strong and far east. Scooter... any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah. It's pretty strong and far east. Scooter... any thoughts? He's in Pats mode now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 He's in Pats mode now Yeah I'm multitasking like crazy. Posting, watching game, making forecast, and rendering graphics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 BOX's enthusiasm for Tuesday's event is as uplifiting at Tom Brady's pathetic pass just now. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR FOR COMBO OF SNOW/ICE...BUT DONT THINK SNOWFALL WILL EXCEED 6". PRECIP MAY EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN EVEN IN NW ZONES TUE NIGHT...BUT STEADIEST PRECIP SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. 20.0/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 BOX's enthusiasm for Tuesday's event is as uplifiting at Tom Brady's pathetic pass just now. That's the same one from this morning.They haven't updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I lived in Saco for a couple of years before heading inland. Nice in summer for the seabreeze, sucky in winter for r/s lines. We have a summer place in Saco... love it there! Hottest summer in years this year there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's the same one from this morning.They haven't updated Good. Still doesn't change Brady's pathetic pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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