Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html Kev this is cool shows Water Equiv about 3 for both of us locked in The lighter shades are more , shows the terrain well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yes it does. models have trended that way....just when i thought we were going to enter a more every 3 days or so storm threat. lets see if we can get something in here sat-mon. Indeed. 0Z euro shows a hit on Sunday. Edit: Not buying the 0Z euro's flattening of the ridge in the pacific/closed low scenario it has over Nevada by 192 hours, which in its evolution, leads to the down stream orientation of the low in the northeast at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Sam, Wxwatcher. Elevation usually is key in these setups. I know Will can tell you all about it. In New England, the old "ice stays in the valleys" rule does not usually apply. In sne, the cold wedge is usually deep enough so that the normal rules of thermal profiles still applies for the lower atmosphere....like temperatures decrease as you increase in elevation..etc. You also will have low level ne flow, which will upslope and also force the air to cool adiabatically. That forced upslope flow helps sustain the low level cold area. It may warm to near freezing for a time, but if the low tracks near the canal, I have a hard time seeing you much above freezing. Usually around 1000' is the optimal level to attain ice accretion in sne........less favorable lower and less favorable higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif when are thes NWS NCEP HPC Graphics updated they would lead me to believe they are looking or 1-2 inches of snow and then maybe an hour or two of ice then cold rain (majority) for everyone outside of berks and ext. sw nh? i guess a good bit is riding on the Euro/ens ......and the gfs ens....in addition to the more icier trends we have seen with 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yes it does. models have trended that way....just when i thought we were going to enter a more every 3 days or so storm threat. lets see if we can get something in here sat-mon. Though not as robust, the Sunday/Monday threat is alive on the GFS. Euro is a borderline HECS from 0Z during that time period. All models have lost the big threat Friday but I don't think it's off the table just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I sleep through this next event....quick snow to rain; never entertain the notion of ice, here. GL further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Usually around 1000' is the optimal level to attain ice accretion in sne........less favorable lower and less favorable higher. ? due to temp inversion in those set ups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol....GFS ends it's run with a big fat FU to all the warmistas out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ? due to temp inversion in those set ups? Bingo. Don't get me wrong....you can still have big ice higher up, especially due to mesoscale nuances in the terrain such as elevated valleys, but generally it's not as favorable well above 1000'. Take that epic Dec 2008 for examle...the very worst ice was right around Will's elevation and it wasn't quite as catastrophic at like 1500-2000 feet. I'd rather be 1500', than 500'. though. Lower is def. worse than higher imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I sleep through this next event....quick snow to rain; never entertain the notion of ice, here. GL further inland. ray ....curious have you ever had an icing situation where there was a 996 LP or stronger inside the BM? HPC called for "deepening low moving out of gulf then up eastern sea board..". i'm leaning on 12z nam .... gun to head i think i would still go with ice berks...monads....and the biggest Q being wether we have a snow preserving 34F rain or 42F rain E of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I just saw on facebook that Ryan's competition (wtnh) has axed Geoff Fox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Becoming more convinced that ice damage will be talked about here by Wed .feels looks familiar, especially NW CT Central Mass to KeV NRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol....GFS ends it's run with a big fat FU to all the warmistas out there.... The sad thing about the end of the GFS run is that it's Feb 1. Time sure goes by quickly these days. 25.4/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ugh....31.3 w full sunshine.....looks like I'll make frezzing, today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Take that epic Dec 2008 for examle...the very worst ice was right around Will's elevation and it wasn't quite as catastrophic at like 1500-2000 feet. Not disputing your larger point, but wrt the Dec 08 storm i'm not sure it wasn't just as bad up at 1500 feet. I drove up there and it was horrible at both 1k and 2k but very few people saw pics from 2k and the vegetation is a little different up that high and perhaps slightly less prone to massive ice damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The sad thing about the end of the GFS run is that it's Feb 1. Time sure goes by quickly these days. 25.4/12 I think the trick to slow the passage of time is to stop working...or at least make is more sporadic. Not on the cards for me in the next few years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Bingo. Don't get me wrong....you can still have big ice higher up, especially due to mesoscale nuances in the terrain such as elevated valleys, but generally it's not as favorable well above 1000'. Take that epic Dec 2008 for examle...the very worst ice was right around Will's elevation and it wasn't quite as catastrophic at like 1500-2000 feet. I'd rather be 1500', than 500'. though. Lower is def. worse than higher imo. Interestingly, in GC, it was the higher elevations that had the most widespread impact in that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ray ....curious have you ever had an icing situation where there was a 996 LP or stronger inside the BM? HPC called for "deepening low moving out of gulf then up eastern sea board..". i'm leaning on 12z nam .... gun to head i think i would still go with ice berks...monads....and the biggest Q being wether we have a snow preserving 34F rain or 42F rain E of ORH. My guess is no; it takes extraordinary circumstances for ice to reack havoc imby. It's all about mid level temps, here because I'm too close to the ocean to rely upon the low l evels; once I lose the mid levels the event is skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 My guess is no; it takes extraordinary circumstances for ice to reack havoc imby. It's all about mid level temps, here because I'm too close to the ocean to rely upon the low l evels; once I lose the mid levels the event is skunked. And this is exactly why ASH is not an extension of the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not disputing your larger point, but wrt the Dec 08 storm i'm not sure it wasn't just as bad up at 1500 feet. I drove up there and it was horrible at both 1k and 2k but very few people saw pics from 2k and the vegetation is a little different up that high and perhaps slightly less prone to massive ice damage. Interestingly, in GC, it was the higher elevations that had the most widespread impact in that event. Fair enough.....I wasn't actually confident of that portion of my post, but generally 1000' is where you want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Interestingly, in GC, it was the higher elevations that had the most widespread impact in that event. The many ice storms I have witnessed in Maine seem to be the worst at about 2500 feet, same with VT, something about the layer. The low valley ice storms are not as robust as the valley usually scours out after a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 And this is exactly why ASH is not an extension of the coastal plain. In the respect, no, but only in that respect.....I said "extension" of the cp, which implies that there is some sort of difference. You are in the distant interior cp....happy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 First day of meting.....33.6 and torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 In the respect, no, but only in that respect.....I said "extension" of the cp, which implies that there is some sort of difference. You are in the distant interior cp....happy lol I suppose . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS and NAM are shifting all the ice threat over to you guys in central NE.. good luck I'll take my 2 inches tuesday morning and then just some spotty PL, etc... NAM gets a bit interesting with it's inverted trough situation Wednesday. Looks like 2-3'' of snow to advisory ice to .75-1'' of rain here...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 First day of meting.....33.6 and torching. High January sun angle ftl... Definitely compaction of the snow from Wednesday has lowered snowpack to about 12-14" here Still looks great though. And to all you who have done/interpreted soundngs, thanks. Very educational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I suppose . I honestly wouldn't rather be in KASH, than here.....I'm not going to delve too far into it, but I'd rather sacrafice some llc during events to clean up in some coastals. Maybe rather be in Acton, Ayer, Carlisle.....but not Nashua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i wonder if temps will be colder tonite than fri am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 High January sun angle ftl... Definitely compaction of the snow from Wednesday has lowered snowpack to about 12-14" here Still looks great though. And to all you who have done/interpreted soundngs, thanks. Very educational I don't even know how to do that. lol But you're welcome, i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The many ice storms I have witnessed in Maine seem to be the worst at about 2500 feet, same with VT, something about the layer. The low valley ice storms are not as robust as the valley usually scours out after a while. total opposite here ottawa valley probably recieves more freezing rain than any populated place on earth. surrounding areas will be all above freezing but the city of ottawa locks in the cold relentlessly. at the same time, ive seen situaitons where the CAD gets scoured out by strong WAA so quickly, it makes your head spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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