MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Good way to kick off the day. NAM trending colder ... Rev FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Sam, Wxwatcher. Elevation usually is key in these setups. I know Will can tell you all about it. In New England, the old "ice stays in the valleys" rule does not usually apply. In sne, the cold wedge is usually deep enough so that the normal rules of thermal profiles still applies for the lower atmosphere....like temperatures decrease as you increase in elevation..etc. You also will have low level ne flow, which will upslope and also force the air to cool adiabatically. That forced upslope flow helps sustain the low level cold area. It may warm to near freezing for a time, but if the low tracks near the canal, I have a hard time seeing you much above freezing. Thanks. Good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You're right, it does seem like lots of fzra for some on this run. The cold air may be a bit more entrenched on this run, so it could be more IP for areas further nw. Looks like a good burst of thump snow to a ice storm, this is NCT. , would much much rather have sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z nam cuts qpf by about 75% For NW new england this run. anyone think this will bounce around till tommorrow morning. Yeah--the qpf depictions have been all over the place. Really drags this thing out, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Those soundings uploaded out of order, but ya get the gist, much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Pretty cool to see the CF show up on the mass fields of the NAM. Sure is, such much so in fact that one would be nuts if they believed that was liquid rain over this snow pack, and also considering the antecedent air mass is so cold thermodynamically - if we insert saturation into this column that's going to cool it hygroscopically. Also, although the main body of the present polar high has shifted E, with cold in place combined with CAD PP N of us at hour 60, that's going to be a N when west of said CF, slam dunk. Cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Actually...that ending snow is very Norlun... You have a low escaping E with lag back PP, with PVA riding over-head to enforce llv convergence in a saturated/near saturated 700mb-SFC sounding. That could accumulate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Sure is, such much so in fact that one would be nuts if they believed that was liquid rain over this snow pack, and also considering the antecedent air mass is so cold thermodynamically - if we insert saturation into this column that's going to cool it hygroscopically. Also, although the main body of the present polar high has shifted E, with cold in place combined with CAD PP N of us at hour 60, that's going to be a N when west of said CF, slam dunk. Cold run. That's a cold run, even for Logan..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That's a cold run, even for Logan..lol. lol, tru dhat - but, with an 05 wind, we'll do our best to fu k up another icing event for ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's interesting to see the effect of the CF on the nam fous. The winds at LGA back from 120 to 90 to 60. It's a battle to get the boundary over 0c anywhere, even Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol, tru dhat - but, with an 05 wind, we'll do our best to fu k up another icing event for ray 32.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS says ice is NBD. Interior gets advisory snow 3-6", followed by sleet, brief ice, and then rain by afternoon. Coast gets trace-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS says ice is NBD. Interior gets advisory snow 3-6", followed by sleet, brief ice, and then rain by afternoon. Coast gets trace-2. i'm sure they have very high confidence with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Lol.. Not an issue of faith. Rather of literacy. I'm reading what they wrote. lol Think outside the BOX and see the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Okay--I must be reading these wrong. But, I ran these for the Pit on Tuesday. Looks like ice early on. But, by 21z Tue., it looks like rain (and that continues throughout the rest of the run). Assuming I'm way off on my interpretation here, can you tell me why? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think the NWS offices might be downplaying the ice potential. Then again, it's all going to come down to how much precip we can get out of this. New 12Z nam has highs of 33 at BDL and ORH, although QPF is not terribly impressive. in these situations, temps actually trend colder than the nam. I've watched several ice events and what's going for us all this time is the DEEP snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Think outside the BOX and see the Euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Okay--I must be reading these wrong. But, I ran these for the Pit on Tuesday. Looks like ice early on. But, by 21z Tue., it looks like rain (and that continues throughout the rest of the run). Assuming I'm way off on my interpretation here, can you tell me why? Thx. Actually all of those soundings are close to an isothermal snow.21z may be a FZRA/SN mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah, but I mean..no overall big changes. GFS came west. AWT. Looks like the low prob goes near messenger. Should be fun times for GC and perhaps near Will through Sam I am. Yeah, right now I'm thinking a general 4-7" snow+sleet across NH with around 0.25" icing Monadnocks and east slopes of the southern Whites. Should see a net gain of a few inches I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Actually all of those soundings are close to an isothermal snow.21z may be a FZRA/SN mix. Lol. You sure it's not a warm rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Good way to kick off the day. NAM trending colder ... Rev FTW. LOL..thanks dude...In a case like this where we have regionwide 2-3 foot snowpack, an arctic high bringing in true arctic air..and a secondary locking in northerly drain..you'll never get the temps to warm much higher than 32 at the surface...there's no south or southeasterly wind stong enough to warm things..so you're left with snow to ice..and many places inland that never get above 32..until maybe Wed when winds turn west. ..I knew the NAM would start picking up on this signal today and expect it to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i'm sure they have very high confidence with this? Well, no, but they are really downplaying the ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Actually all of those soundings are close to an isothermal snow.21z may be a FZRA/SN mix. Really? I would think that would show melting in the column. (after that last image, the soundings don't improves so might tranition away from snow further from there on out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Okay--I must be reading these wrong. But, I ran these for the Pit on Tuesday. Looks like ice early on. But, by 21z Tue., it looks like rain (and that continues throughout the rest of the run). Assuming I'm way off on my interpretation here, can you tell me why? Thx. Mike that is snow to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ginx or someone ..can you post the link for snowdepth.. Not the crappy NWS one..but the other one with the purple and blue map shadings. I thought I had saved the link..but didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Mike that is snow to sleet That settles it. I need to take a met course and read some more. Actually, GCC is offering a met course this spring. I think I may register for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 LOL..thanks dude...In a case like this where we have regionwide 2-3 foot snowpack, an arctic high bringing in true arctic air..and a secondary locking in northerly drain..you'll never get the temps to warm much higher than 32 at the surface...there's no south or southeasterly wind stong enough to warm things..so you're left with snow to ice..and many places inland that never get above 32..until maybe Wed when winds turn west. ..I knew the NAM would start picking up on this signal today and expect it to continue i would think this won't mean squat outside the berks or monads should that lead SW amplify more .....the artic high is slipping east of new england.....should the lead SW amplify more and track over SE mass....i see SE winds laughing at the deep snow back and retreating high....S winds scour out the cold faster than rex ryan would lick your bare foot in a open toe shoe i think a declining NAO would trump any track altering effects a snow pack would have....and i don't see a Polar high retreating to the E would be something that is favorable. all i'm saying is let's get some consistency with a cold N drain solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ginx or someone ..can you post the link for snowdepth.. Not the crappy NWS one..but the other one with the purple and blue map shadings. I thought I had saved the link..but didn't This? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/html/snow_depth.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That settles it. I need to take a met course and read some more. Actually, GCC is offering a met course this spring. I think I may register for it. Go to the Plymouth site and make your own model section, run soundings off the nam at your nearest location. They show actual sounding temps. What you posted shows the column below 32 at all levels except for one panel, that panel melts the snow then refreezed it, ie sleet. Look in the thread for questions, lots of great links, they point to how to interpret soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That settles it. I need to take a met course and read some more. Actually, GCC is offering a met course this spring. I think I may register for it. Just by a better set of weenie goggles. Big turnout for skiing today. Warm enough to make using the droid on the lift easy. Got a good set of dvds on meteorolgy for x-mas. Look on Amazon. We'll add to the snowpack Tues and the end of the end of the week Mike. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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