CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Nam is colder though ..quite a bit actually Yeah, but I mean..no overall big changes. GFS came west. AWT. Looks like the low prob goes near messenger. Should be fun times for GC and perhaps near Will through Sam I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah, but I mean..no overall big changes. GFS came west. AWT. Looks like the low prob goes near messenger. Should be fun times for GC and perhaps near Will through Sam I am. I think Northern CT/NW RI also has some ice problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think Northern CT/NW RI also has some ice problems Yeah I could see a glaze for a little while, in those areas..like your area. Even though we have a retreating high, we have a good CAD signature with snowpack.Take the under in temps across the interior. I don't think it's a classic text book setup for ice, but it has a lot going for it across GC and up through sw NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah, but I mean..no overall big changes. GFS came west. AWT. Looks like the low prob goes near messenger. Should be fun times for GC and perhaps near Will through Sam I am. Who is Sam I am? Scot, what role will elelvation play in this type of set up? Is it more an issue of lat/log or height? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Who is Sam I am? Scot, what role will elelvation play in this type of set up? Sam, Wxwatcher. Elevation usually is key in these setups. I know Will can tell you all about it. In New England, the old "ice stays in the valleys" rule does not usually apply. In sne, the cold wedge is usually deep enough so that the normal rules of thermal profiles still applies for the lower atmosphere....like temperatures decrease as you increase in elevation..etc. You also will have low level ne flow, which will upslope and also force the air to cool adiabatically. That forced upslope flow helps sustain the low level cold area. It may warm to near freezing for a time, but if the low tracks near the canal, I have a hard time seeing you much above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I find it funny how these storms need to play out up here, The last storm we wanted it tick to the west, This one we want it east......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Scott, Are you thinking we see a storm track similar to what the Euro has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 nam seems alot colder through hour 36 can you already see the cold air damming south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Scott, Are you thinking we see a storm track similar to what the Euro has? Yeah I think it's fair. Low goes near the Cape Cod canal and into the Gulf of Maine..perhaps close to the Maine coast. Areas in nw ME could be mostly snow..even down to IZG, on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah I think it's fair. Low goes near the Cape Cod canal and into the Gulf of Maine..perhaps close to the Maine coast. Areas in nw ME could be mostly snow..even down to IZG, on the euro. Its looking like the Mtns and northern Maine are looking at a warning event, 6-12" is not out of the question up there, I am going to have mixing issues right now here......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 HR48 850's really torch. Looks like pingers for alot of us when this gets underway if you take the NAM verbatim nam seems alot colder through hour 36 can you already see the cold air damming south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM seems to be shifting se on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 nam 850's trended milder this run. i.e 850's go over 0c before any precip gets here....i.e Tues 5am per NAM. so nam says NO front end snow thump....has 0c line from SW VT TO Ext. Ne mass. does have me wondering if icing will be more of a concern . and why was kev saying earlier the nam trended cooler ...6z took the low over the canal and 0z took it over Bm.....and thicknesses were milder on the 6z and the LLCold wouldn't hold with the low further NW? the 12z hopefully goes a tick SE then icing could be issue num. 1 also primary is further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM may be more sleet on this run for the interior. Even BOS would have n-ne drainage on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM may be more sleet on this run for the interior. Even BOS would have n-ne drainage on this run. snow pack saver .... what pushed the low further sE i noticed the primary was further S in OV.....was this the main reason ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM may be more sleet on this run for the interior. Even BOS would have n-ne drainage on this run. Soundings for me, snow to a long period of frza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 snow pack saver .... what pushed the low further sE i noticed the primary was further S in OV.....was this the main reason ? I don't know if the NAM is for real, yet. Lead s/w is a little more flat on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM signalling sleet fest but not torch for sure during the event. Sealing the pack with a kiss ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 should the 12z NAM verify at 60 hours that's a northerly drain below 950mbs of 30-32F air up underneath +3 and raining at 850 - ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z nam cuts qpf by about 75% For NW new england this run. anyone think this will bounce around till tommorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM signalling sleet fest but not torch for sure during the event. Sealing the pack with a kiss ftw... This would be nice for you and I. Some snow, followed by IP perhaps and 34F rain..maybe falling below 32 at the tail end? This was a big change, so we'll see what the rest of the 12z suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This would be nice for you and I. Some snow, followed by IP perhaps and 34F rain..maybe falling below 32 at the tail end? This was a big change, so we'll see what the rest of the 12z suite does. The best part, whatever happens to the pack I don't have to watch. I'll be in FL Tues afternoon through Th afternoon..back here Th night. Kind of bummed about the loss of the Friday threat but that may return... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 BOS FRH: Folks ...this is icing W of I-95 given these bolded values: 54012989461 00909 211307 41000100 60058999258 03703 150515 44020401 There would be a weak coastal boundary there with 360 do N drift to the air at probably 29-31F west of that boundary with freezing rain/IP taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This would be nice for you and I. Some snow, followed by IP perhaps and 34F rain..maybe falling below 32 at the tail end? This was a big change, so we'll see what the rest of the 12z suite does. Scooter, looks more like FZRA? I am asking Tips says that and the sounds look wet until about 950? , am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Soundings for me, snow to a long period of frza I'll take that instead of a heavy rain, although my wife's mini-van won't like driving in it. - School delays/ closings on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The best part, whatever happens to the pack I don't have to watch. I'll be in FL Tues afternoon through Th afternoon..back here Th night. Kind of bummed about the loss of the Friday threat but that may return... Yeah the signs of there. Euro has one around d8-9 so the pattern appears to want to develop cyclogenesis at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Scooter, looks more like FZRA? I am asking Tips says that and the sounds look wet until about 950? , am I missing something? You're right, it does seem like lots of fzra for some on this run. The cold air may be a bit more entrenched on this run, so it could be more IP for areas further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow, this is an entertaining run... This is a light snow to icing event for the interior, that ends with 2-4" of snow between hours 66-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Flip to sn at hr 84?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow, this is an entertaining run... This is a light snow to icing event for the interior, that ends with 2-4" of snow between hours 66-84. Pretty cool to see the CF show up on the mass fields of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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