mattlacroix4 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:19 PM, Dryslot said: Pretty good thump on the front end, Then it looks like we will mix........... Yeah, mixed a lot further north again..rrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Big differences between Alb & Box for W. Ma. snow totals. Alb has 2-4" for Savoy (Berkshire Co.) but Box has 6-10" one town over into their forecast area (Franklin, Co.) We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Break out the arks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:23 PM, Happy Valley said: Big differences between Alb & Box for W. Ma. snow totals. Alb has 2-4" for Savoy (Berkshire Co.) but Box has 6-10" one town over into their forecast area (Franklin, Co.) We shall see. ALY's AFD is very good this morning. Always useful to read that alongside BOX's for things out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:02 PM, CoastalWx said: This reminds me a little of the Feb storm last year that smoked the ORH hills and sw NH. Which one? Feb 24 or 27? The 24th gave me like 12" then went to rain... 27th gave me 10" of fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:23 PM, mattlacroix4 said: Yeah, mixed a lot further north again..rrrr Can't say I'm happy about that, but most does fall as snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Haven't followed this storm at all, but can someone explain how this one can be so much warmer than the last given the similar track and colder antecedent temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I can see this a situation Where we wait for it to changeover, but it.never does until the precip gets lighter at the very end... its happened many times with this cold atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:32 PM, snowNH said: I can see this a situation Where we wait for it to changeover, but it.never does until the precip gets lighter at the very end... its happened many times with this cold atmosphere What do you like as an analog??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:27 PM, HubbDave said: Which one? Feb 24 or 27? The 24th gave me like 12" then went to rain... 27th gave me 10" of fluff The 24th. The NAM profiles are very marginal for a sig amount of snow. It would be better for a 00z like track. Maybe it trends colder throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:28 PM, MarkO said: Haven't followed this storm at all, but can someone explain how this one can be so much warmer than the last given the similar track and colder antecedent temps? Because the primary low to our west, is flooding the mid levels with warmth, and we have a retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:28 PM, MarkO said: Haven't followed this storm at all, but can someone explain how this one can be so much warmer than the last given the similar track and colder antecedent temps? Not a met but here is what I think I know: high is retreating n and e therefore not holding cold air in. midlevel flow thus is from the s and e in front of the storm and then backs ene as the storm gets over the cape and gom we might benefit from residual high pressure to our north that creates a drainage from the n and nne we get a good dump on the front end from the warm moist flow from the south overrunning our very cold air at the surface eventually, in some areas, mid levels warm enough to melt the precip as it is coming down and refreeze it as sleet or if cold layer is thin and near the ground, frzg rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:28 PM, MarkO said: Haven't followed this storm at all, but can someone explain how this one can be so much warmer than the last given the similar track and colder antecedent temps? This is a southern stream system...the primary to our west is flooding us with WAA out ahead of it. Even though today/tonight will be cold we're already experiencing the WAA aloft so most of our deep cold is gone as the system approaches. The sfc high is trying to keep a nose in over the typical CAD areas to keep an icing/snow threat for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Anyone concerned about the lack of cold air now? This airmass was supposed to send lows into the single digits here....they didnt get past 19. If the original airmass isnt as cold, then wouldnt it make sense that the cold air is less established and easier to push out by the time the storm arrives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i could see us getting a few inches of snow around here then a pretty good icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Because the primary low to our west, is flooding the mid levels with warmth, and we have a retreating high. It's a heckuva lot warmer at 850 than the 00z run, that's for sure. Anyone see surface temps yet? I would think the surface would likely be warmer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BOX map is really funny. I'm sitting in the 2-4 zone - but about 8 miles west is like 6-8. That's one amazing gradient! Maybe I'll see the rain snow line right over my head - a big pink line in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM is a damaging icestorm. Euro was cold last night..if Euro maintains at 12z could be more snow and less ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:39 PM, Alpha5 said: Anyone concerned about the lack of cold air now? This airmass was supposed to send lows into the single digits here....they didnt get past 19. If the original airmass isnt as cold, then wouldnt it make sense that the cold air is less established and easier to push out by the time the storm arrives? Well many places that were supposed to decouple didn't overnight. Everyone should mix up to their forecasted highs today anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:41 PM, moneypitmike said: It's a heckuva lot warmer at 850 than the 00z run, that's for sure. Anyone see surface temps yet? I would think the surface would likely be warmer as well. You will not crack freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well I guess we trended away from the cold 00z NAM. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:44 PM, dendrite said: Well many places that were supposed to decouple didn't overnight. Everyone should mix up to their forecasted highs today anyway. Already past it High was 22, at 24 already....not looking too good IMO. Maybe someone can correct me but everything looks warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:39 PM, mahk_webstah said: Not a met but here is what I think I know: high is retreating n and e therefore not holding cold air in. midlevel flow thus is from the s and e in front of the storm and then backs ene as the storm gets over the cape and gom we might benefit from residual high pressure to our north that creates a drainage from the n and nne we get a good dump on the front end from the warm moist flow from the south overrunning our very cold air at the surface eventually, in some areas, mid levels warm enough to melt the precip as it is coming down and refreeze it as sleet or if cold layer is thin and near the ground, frzg rain OH, don't tell MRG this, he will say you are disturbed because the hypothesis leads to less snow than desired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:46 PM, Alpha5 said: Already past it High was 22, at 24 already....not looking too good IMO. Maybe someone can correct me but everything looks warmer Well then you're warmer than anyone else in CT. Paul's mesomap pretty much has upper 10s to near 20F in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:46 PM, Alpha5 said: Already past it High was 22, at 24 already....not looking too good IMO. Maybe someone can correct me but everything looks warmer Wow, still 16 here...I'm thinking I ice up pretty good tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:44 PM, CoastalWx said: You will not crack freezing. Mike is getting his Eeyore on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:44 PM, CoastalWx said: You will not crack freezing. Nice and bold, Scot. lol Say the same thing for BDL and I'll unpack my bag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Thanks guys! Is anyone looking at a potential ice event? Seems like this is a setup where cold surface air drains in from my NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 On 1/17/2011 at 2:36 PM, sbos_wx said: What do you like as an analog??? I don't have a specific event but I can recall many times in Arctic airmass it is very hard to warm surface temps during heavy precip.. which is why I see Zr as a major concern for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Its no heat wave here 8.4 F......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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