Boston-winter08 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If the EURO tracks over the canal and still has such a cold solution, it makes you wonder what an adjustment in the track of 100 miles further SE could mean for SNE (NAM looks to track the low 100 miles SE of the cape) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see a dangerous trap that I feel many are going to fall into on the heels of the NAM's huge mesoscale win in the HECS; that system underwent incredible bombogensis as a result of the polar air interacting with the ocean, which is a mesoscale phenomenon and directly in wheelhouse of the NAM....John did a great job foretelling that. This sytem, however is a far different animal and in sharp contrast to the HECS in that it represents the NAM's greatest deficiency...swfes. We have seen time and time again that the NAM will not drive the warm advestion far enough n in these, so I'd be careful that it doesn't over trend int he cold direction, before correcting itself to a degree at the last moment. agreed....but so long as the euro is on board for front end thump.....were chuck'en em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:37 PM, Boston-winter08 said: If the EURO tracks over the canal and still has such a cold solution, it makes you wonder what an adjustment in the track of 100 miles further SE could mean for SNE (NAM looks to track the low 100 miles SE of the cape) Yeah, but it has an inv trough signature right up to BOS, which helps surge the warmth northward. That's why the thermal profile is not what you'd expect with a low track like that. It's important to not only note the track of the low, but also..the shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:36 PM, simpsonsbuff said: Nowhere near the precip on the NAM that the GFS and Euro have... I'm not too worried about the NAM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:39 PM, cpickett79 said: agreed....but so long as the euro is on board for front end thump.....were chuck'en em. I'm not saying that there won't be a front end thump, just to be weary of weenie runs from the NAM and make sure that the GFS and EURO corroborate before whacking it to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see a dangerous trap that I feel many are going to fall into on the heels of the NAM's huge mesoscale win in the HECS; that system underwent incredible bombogensis as a result of the polar air interacting with the ocean, which is a mesoscale phenomenon and directly in wheelhouse of the NAM....John did a great job foretelling that. This sytem, however is a far different animal and in sharp contrast to the HECS in that it represents the NAM's greatest deficiency...swfes. We have seen time and time again that the NAM will not drive the warm advestion far enough n in these, so I'd be careful that it doesn't over trend in the cold direction, before correcting itself to a degree at the last moment. On 1/16/2011 at 8:40 PM, dendrite said: I'm not too worried about the NAM yet. It maybe underdoing the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not saying that there won't be a front end thump, just to be weary of weenie runs from the NAM and make sure that the GFS and EURO corroborate before whacking it to it. "The precip comes in sooner, but so does the sleet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:39 PM, CoastalWx said: It's important to not only note the length and thickness of the , but also..the shape. TMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:42 PM, dendrite said: "The precip comes in sooner, but so does the sleet." Right.....I think you are going to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:42 PM, DomNH said: TMI lol good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not saying that there won't be a front end thump, just to be weary of weenie runs from the NAM and make sure that the GFS and EURO corroborate before whacking it to it. LOL. yeah I'mm sure we'll see a few runs waver here and there. No need to lock anything in yet. It does look rather wintry for a good chunk of the interior..just away from the coast. Maybe it goes to 34 in your backyard, but I think it will be chilly overall. You may even pick up a decent amount of snow given your latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see a dangerous trap that I feel many are going to fall into on the heels of the NAM's huge mesoscale win in the HECS; that system underwent incredible bombogensis as a result of the polar air interacting with the ocean, which is a mesoscale phenomenon and directly in wheelhouse of the NAM....John did a great job foretelling that. This sytem, however is a far different animal and in sharp contrast to the HECS in that it represents the NAM's greatest deficiency...swfes. We have seen time and time again that the NAM will not drive the warm advestion far enough n in these, so I'd be careful that it doesn't over trend int he cold direction, before correcting itself to a degree at the last moment. agreed, easily could be sneaky warm layers between 850 mb and 700 mb despite the trending for colder surface via agestrophic drain .. I think the threat for icing ( greater than 1/4" accretion) is about equal to the threat of 4" + in interrior SNE, primarily in the usual areas ( Berkshires, ORH hills), then lesser concern for N CT, NW RI, and interrior MA W of 495 greater concern is for wintry mix vs. snow overall IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:44 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL. yeah I'mm sure we'll see a few runs waver here and there. No need to lock anything in yet. It does look rather wintry for a good chunk of the interior..just away from the coast. Maybe it goes to 34 in your backyard, but I think it will be chilly overall. You may even pick up a decent amount of snow given your latitude. I will; this is 2007-08 all over again....we know the drill. 2-5" imby...brief sleet, then R- and 35ish. Kev will get 1-3...be dumbfounded when it sleets an hour earalier than predicted, then rejoice when he remains just under freeezing and congrats, Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will; this is 2007-08 all over again....we know the drill. 2-5" imby...brief sleet, then R- and 35ish. Kev will get 1-3...be dumbfounded when it sleets an hour earalier than predicted, then rejoice when he remains just under freeezing and congrats, Dendrite. If you accomplish that...great win for your snow. As it is right now, I only sink half way down on my snow, thanks to the Tip blue tint snowbomb I had. Sleet will compact Kevin's fluffy dendrites to about 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ryan.. snow to heavy heavy ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:55 PM, CoastalWx said: If you accomplish that...great win for your snow. As it is right now, I only sink half way down on my snow, thanks to the Tip blue tint snowbomb I had. Sleet will compact Kevin's fluffy dendrites to about 8". LOL..there won't be much compaction if we can get some wetter snow on top. Net gain of 2-4 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:56 PM, CT Blizz said: LOL..there won't be much compaction if we can get some wetter snow on top. Net gain of 2-4 here You have nothing to worry about, since your snow is so deep. In fact, I'd keep building those snow mounds and see if your piles or MRG's will melt first. No way those disappear before late March at the earliest...unless we have an epic torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:56 PM, CT Blizz said: LOL..there won't be much compaction if we can get some wetter snow on top. Net gain of 2-4 here I see Staffordville had 22" on the ground this AM. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 8:59 PM, CoastalWx said: You have nothing to worry about, since your snow is so deep. In fact, I'd keep building those snow mounds and see if your piles or MRG's will melt first. No way those disappear before late March at the earliest...unless we have an epic torch. I know..no worries at all..aside from 95-96 before the torch for about 2 days.. this is the deepest snow I've ever had on the ground..feet and feet..with more coming..I'd actually like to get a little ice into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The euro is actually cooler than the 18z NAM is at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:01 PM, CT Blizz said: I know..no worries at all..aside from 95-96 before the torch for about 2 days.. this is the deepest snow I've ever had on the ground..feet and feet..with more coming..I'd actually like to get a little ice into it I'd say the protected areas have maybe 18" or so give or take for a snowpack..maybe even 20".I should go sneak into my neighbors yard and measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:00 PM, CT Rain said: I see Staffordville had 22" on the ground this AM. Not bad. NE CT FTW...I measured 25-28 yesterday on avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:03 PM, CT Blizz said: NE CT FTW...I measured 25-28 yesterday on avg I bet you're down a bit from settling today still but it's gotta be a solid 20"+ after this afternoon. What's more impressive is BDR with 16" this morning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:05 PM, CT Rain said: I bet you're down a bit from settling today still but it's gotta be a solid 20"+ after this afternoon. What's more impressive is BDR with 16" this morning!! Could be though it only got to 29 .2 for the high here..Solidly over 2 feet still OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GYX PM update paints a wintery picture. FOR NOW...THE BEST FORECAST GUESS IS THAT FOR THE 36 HOURS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM CONCORD TO FRYEBURG TO LEWISTON AND AUGUSTA. HAVE OPTED NOT TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. ALSO...DESPITE THE WIDE VARIETY OF NASTY PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED...IT IS UNCLEAR THAT ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY ONE TYPE WILL REACH INDIVIDUAL WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:06 PM, CT Blizz said: Could be though it only got to 29 .2 for the high here..Solidly over 2 feet still OTG Yeah if you look at Staffordville they've been matching your obs very closely and have been steadily losing snow pack through some melting and sublimation. They had 32" right after the storm and have lost 10" of it. The decline is going to stop pretty soon though as we have a really solid pack left and it's going to have a much harder time disappearing especially with snow and ice on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:09 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah if you look at Staffordville they've been matching your obs very closely and have been steadily losing snow pack through some melting and sublimation. They had 32" right after the storm and have lost 10" of it. The decline is going to stop pretty soon though as we have a really solid pack left and it's going to have a much harder time disappearing especially with snow and ice on the way. Still not sure I believe they got 29 from the storm..Union only had 21 and Stafford had about what I did I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:09 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah if you look at Staffordville they've been matching your obs very closely and have been steadily losing snow pack through some melting and sublimation. They had 32" right after the storm and have lost 10" of it. The decline is going to stop pretty soon though as we have a really solid pack left and it's going to have a much harder time disappearing especially with snow and ice on the way. I don't think interior CT ever gets above freezing on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:11 PM, CT Blizz said: Still not sure I believe they got 29 from the storm..Union only had 21 and Stafford had about what I did I think They were in some real solid mesoscale banding for a period of time so I could see it. But yeah a touch on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 On 1/16/2011 at 9:12 PM, CT Blizz said: I don't think interior CT ever gets above freezing on Tuesday I don't either... at least in the hills. I could see you getting to 33 or 34 at the end of the day but no torch for sure. Litchfield county could get a nasty icing event after snow if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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