buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 IMO, the least of your concerns. without a phase, this storm is suppression city. In that models have overdone phasing this season....I can see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the cold just north of the low is impressive. Also looks like the nam wants to bring down the arctic hammer a bit more. Would make sense if we can get a phase. I was pretty much going to allude to the same thing with the above statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Top 3 analogs from the CIPS site, using the 0z GFS at 72 hours. 1) 12/16-17/1981 2) 1/26-27/1997 3) 2/10-11/1988 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 without a phase, this storm is suppression city. In that models have overdone phasing this season....I can see your point. i only see one wrapped up solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS has brought a few inches up here the last few runs, whereas beforehand it was south. So I wouldnt necessarily call the NAM a northern outlier, plus with the block gone, Im thinking chances are ok for here. Does it look like with the NAM run that it wants to set up SE ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS through 54 looks better in the height field and will probably be a better step towards a more amplified solution through the plains and into the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The operational GFS is about 1 run of changes from turning into a wrapped up negative tilt storm as it heads east through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The operational GFS is about 1 run of changes from turning into a wrapped up negative tilt storm as it heads east through the OV. the way you say this you almost sound like you think it's going to happen. Congrats CMH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The operational GFS is about 1 run of changes from turning into a wrapped up negative tilt storm as it heads east through the OV. Yeah, I really think if the cold air dump comes in this time frame which it looks like it should, this could really be a strong/significant system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah, I really think if the cold air dump comes in this time frame which it looks like it should, this could really be a strong/significant system. Just missed the phase of the secondary low. If you compare 0 to 06 to 12z, the western trough passing through the intermountain W keeps digging ever so slightly less and is nudged a tad eastward--that small difference of when that second wave phases with the northern stream over the plains is the difference--and it will show up big in non-linear development. But I this is a legitimate threat for a wrapped storm similar to CMC. Yes weird, the CMC is on to something here. NAM is about to show something similar if extrapolated too. The general trend amongst the operational GFS/ECM is to trend slow and make subtle changes since the breakdown of the -NAO. The GFS/ECm did this with the last storm that passed through the OV and developed into the HECS coastal storm--and at least the GFS is doing it here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well if nothing else, both the 12z NAM and GFS have at least 0.25" QPF here...not too shabby, I'd hit it. Have to admit I'm intrigued by the possibility of this thing getting a bit stronger/more amplified for places such as IND, CVG, DAY, and CMH...and points all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 :guitar: IS IT PARTY TIME YET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The operational GFS is about 1 run of changes from turning into a wrapped up negative tilt storm as it heads east through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Just missed the phase of the secondary low. If you compare 0 to 06 to 12z, the western trough passing through the intermountain W keeps digging ever so slightly less and is nudged a tad eastward--that small difference of when that second wave phases with the northern stream over the plains is the difference--and it will show up big in non-linear development. But I this is a legitimate threat for a wrapped storm similar to CMC. Yes weird, the CMC is on to something here. NAM is about to show something similar if extrapolated too. The general trend amongst the operational GFS/ECM is to trend slow and make subtle changes since the breakdown of the -NAO. The GFS/ECm did this with the last storm that passed through the OV and developed into the HECS coastal storm--and at least the GFS is doing it here again. Yeah I hate to say it because it might put the screws to some, but this might be the our classic NW trend event of yesteryear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah I hate to say it because it might put the screws to some, but this might be the our classic NW trend event of yesteryear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah I hate to say it because it might put the screws to some, but this might be the our classic NW trend event of yesteryear. I have a hard time buying a NW trend with this one with the strength of the cold air mass behind the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah I hate to say it because it might put the screws to some, but this might be the our classic NW trend event of yesteryear. i'll echo the above, but it's going to take a pretty monster shift to bring this area back in the game, about as likely as the Bears beating the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have a hard time buying a NW trend with this one with the strength of the cold air mass behind the system I'm not seeing a major NW trend happening either but i don't see the cold behind it as the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 :guitar: IS IT PARTY TIME YET? Jeb is in the house. Good luck to you on this one, along with our OV posters. IMBY, I'll gladly hand you the snow as long as we keep a 2-3" snowpack IMBY for the potential arctic dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i'll echo the above, but it's going to take a pretty monster shift to bring this area back in the game, about as likely as the Bears beating the pack. Eh, it depends what you mean "back in the game". If you mean bullseye, then I agree with you. If you mean simply getting shovelable snow, than I very much disagree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Eh, it depends what you mean "back in the game". If you mean bullseye, then I agree with you. If you mean simply getting shovelable snow, than I very much disagree! I guess i meant headline worthy, not seeing it here, you're further east so still in da game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I guess i meant headline worthy, not seeing it here, you're further east so still in da game. Right now as is, it isn't there, but given the trends I think this one has a much higher ceiling for everyone than the current event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i'll echo the above, but it's going to take a pretty monster shift to bring this area back in the game, about as likely as the Bears beating the pack. Bears are going to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Packers by 10. You guys played 3 teams with above .500 record this season, and won by a total of 11 points. The only way the Packers lose is because of either 1) The weather, or 2) Special Teams. Pack have better offense/defense, and we should have beat you guys the first game in Solider Field if it wasnt for a Jones fumble and 18 penalites. Anyways, I'm pretty much out of the game on this storm, so next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Right now as is, it isn't there, but given the trends I think this one has a much higher ceiling for most than the current event. Fixed, going to be hard for moneyman to do better than he will today. Areas south and east of him, hard to argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GEM is still suppression city, gives the STL area a nice 4-5 inch event...but overall is suppressed threw 72, we will see how it shapes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GGEM has another bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GEM is still suppression city, gives the STL area a nice 4-5 inch event...but overall is suppressed threw 72, we will see how it shapes out. Looks like a carbon copy of the 0z out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GGEM has another bomb! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/11-new-york-cityphiladelphia-metro/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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