snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think it has potential at least, to say its a cross between GFS/Euro is foolish because both have bias issues at this phase, GFS suppression/cold bias and the Euro is trying to hold back energy in SW which is another known bias, I think at worst right now I'd look for something similar to the GGEM. Bold call. I'll take your red tag as collateral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Bold call. I'll take your red tag as collateral. Eh I'm sure it will come back to bite me in the rear, but things can only miss for so long, and with the cold air coming down it wont be coming quietly. The only way things don't work out would be if this first system lays down confluence in its wake and things come out in weak pieces, which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A lot of the GFS ensembles are more phased than the OP but at the current time I wouldn't bet against the seasonal trends: La Nina style northern stream domination. good luck to you since you're far enough east to still be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think it has potential at least, to say its a cross between GFS/Euro is foolish because both have bias issues at this phase, GFS suppression/cold bias and the Euro is trying to hold back energy in SW which is another known bias, I think at worst right now I'd look for something similar to the GGEM. 6z nam comes in with a wave moving pretty far north...all northern stream domination, (even causing precip issues here in ohio). Gotta give it some cred based on seasonal trends of the northern branch domination. OTOH as you mentioned, this is the first one with such a strong cold shot plunging in. gonna be an interesting few days of models ahead btw, just read in another the thread that the ggem op was a total outlier compared to the ensembles....none of them showed the op solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Im likiing the northern trend of snow on Thu/Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z nam comes in with a wave moving pretty far north...all northern stream domination, (even causing precip issues here in ohio). Gotta give it some cred based on seasonal trends of the northern branch domination. OTOH as you mentioned, this is the first one with such a strong cold shot plunging in. gonna be an interesting few days of models ahead btw, just read in another the thread that the ggem op was a total outlier compared to the ensembles....none of them showed the op solution It was wrong and 12z will trend south. EDIT: by 54, it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It was wrong and 12z will trend south. EDIT: by 54, it has. Its not out far enough to know for certain the outcome, if anything it looks stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM finally wakes up and joins the other models. This continues to look like a MCI-JLN-STL-IND-CMH (and points south of that line) storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Its not out far enough to know for certain the outcome, if anything it looks stronger. of course, but it's weaker and south. This one is unlikely at best for anyone this far north, until you get much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 nam looks like it's going for a more phased solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 nam looks like it's going for a more phased solution It's juiced alright. Looks like CMH would do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 significant hit OV... i-70 corridor nothing like being in the nam crosshairs at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM giving LAF some love at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Lock it up. Move it 150 miles north, then lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM giving LAF some love at 84hrs yep...and the low is actually strengthening...extrapolated (i know dangerous on the nam)...but further east would probably get hammered pretty nice. Interesting that it actually gets colder at 850 closer to the low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Move it 150 miles north, then lock it up As long as it doesn't cost MBY, done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As long as it doesn't cost MBY, done deal. i agree....slp is on the ky/tn border....150 miles would probably still keep me in the game but damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As long as it doesn't cost MBY, done deal. Nah it wont, if anything it will give more people some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hampster special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 pretty big differences between the 0z GFS and 12z NAM. the NAM is stronger with the sfc low and further north bringing it to the KY/TN border at 84hr where the GFS has it along the gulf coast before kicking it and being weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 spreading the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i agree....slp is on the ky/tn border....150 miles would probably still keep me in the game but damn close. Yeah there's still some wiggle room, but it seems the NAM...for these parts in Indiana...is the northern outlier right now. I think LAF can score an inch or two, but the heaviest will remain south along the I-70 corridor. By that I'm trying to use a consensus of the models right now. I really think you will do very well with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 pretty big differences between the 0z GFS and 12z NAM. the NAM is stronger with the sfc low and further north bringing it to the KY/TN border at 84hr where the GFS has it along the gulf coast before kicking it and being weaker. This is the winter of 'trust no model beyond 48hrs'. If it still shows this wednesday 00z, i'll start getting excited...and only if it has euro collaboration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah there's still some wiggle room, but it seems the NAM...for these parts in Indiana...is the northern outlier right now. I think LAF can score an inch or two, but the heaviest will remain south along the I-70 corridor. By that I'm trying to use a consensus of the models right now. I really think you will do very well with this storm. why would this not cut further north? The block is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is the winter of 'trust no model beyond 48hrs'. If it still shows this wednesday 00z, i'll start getting excited...and only if it has euro collaboration. Euro has it for CMH, although not as wet as the recent NAM. No shock there I guess. Really just need the good Dr to hold firm and then increase QPF a bit. Just for fun, 12z NAM has 0.35" for LAF with temps in the 23-24º range. It's nice to dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 why would this not cut further north? The block is gone GFS has brought a few inches up here the last few runs, whereas beforehand it was south. So I wouldnt necessarily call the NAM a northern outlier, plus with the block gone, Im thinking chances are ok for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 why would this not cut further north? The block is gone IMO, the least of your concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro has it for CMH, although not as wet as the recent NAM. No shock there I guess. Really just need the good Dr to hold firm and then increase QPF a bit. Just for fun, 12z NAM has 0.35" for LAF with temps in the 23-24º range. It's nice to dream... the cold just north of the low is impressive. Also looks like the nam wants to bring down the arctic hammer a bit more. Would make sense if we can get a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is the winter of 'trust no model beyond 48hrs'. If it still shows this wednesday 00z, i'll start getting excited...and only if it has euro collaboration. The NAM right now looks a lot like the Euro did 2 days ago in terms of the configuration of the upper trough at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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