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January 19-21 MW/GL/OV Storm Potential


snowlover2

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Beat me to it. Man is it digging that trough. I only have it through 96 but it looks like it'll be at least a moderate hit for the E Lakes/OV.

lol: still transfers to the coast. Just can't beat it this year.

Another hit for Ottawa? Could it be that we are finally turning things around? I'd love a storm where it snows with an air temperature of -15C or lower. Always get good snow ratios that way and I love being able to point out to people that it can indeed snow when it is bitterly cold.

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Why not over you? The GGEM's track was stupid because the h5 was to far west for the low to be that far east. Should of been just inside the coastal plain. Who knows if even the h5 developes that way. The nam looks a bit like GGEM with the h5 but clearly further nw a smudge.

the one thing that we can at least have some confidence in, is about a 50/50 shot of overrunning as the energy ejects from the rockies....that's something most models are beginning to show, and that is within 84 hrs. The big question is what happens after that.....phasing just hasn't happened this season so i'm skeptical.

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Wonder what the ECMWF will try and spin tonight? My guess, the system the GGEM has, won't be there and instead, look like the 12z Euro.

Then in the 150+hr timeframe, it will try and spin something else.

the way the euro has been....it wouldn't shock me to have anything from complete suppression to a 982 bomb spinning up over dayton

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the ggem reminded me a bit of pdII. That was a two-parter here. The first came with precip streaking out ahead of the ejecting energy out west, ( i remember iowa getting it pretty good with that as well). Then there was about an 18 hr lull and the next wave came as the storm phased and took the turn up the coast.

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the ggem reminded me a bit of pdII. That was a two-parter here. The first came with precip streaking out ahead of the ejecting energy out west, ( i remember iowa getting it pretty good with that as well). Then there was about an 18 hr lull and the next wave came as the storm phased and took the turn up the coast.

I just remember waking up on presidents day to light snow that turned heavy. Snowed all day til around 11pm and ended with about 17" or so.

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Hey we got .24" without a major phase...But I'm waiting for a big storm. That last one was disappointing :lol:

im feeling good about some overrunning and would gladly take it. but im not convinced a ggem type scenario is that far fetched. the sw would have to eject quicker and the timing of the phase would have to be perfect...but it's still on the table.

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A lot of the GFS ensembles are more phased than the OP but at the current time I wouldn't bet against the seasonal trends: La Nina style northern stream domination.

I think it has potential at least, to say its a cross between GFS/Euro is foolish because both have bias issues at this phase, GFS suppression/cold bias and the Euro is trying to hold back energy in SW which is another known bias, I think at worst right now I'd look for something similar to the GGEM.

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