Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Beat me to it. Man is it digging that trough. I only have it through 96 but it looks like it'll be at least a moderate hit for the E Lakes/OV. lol: still transfers to the coast. Just can't beat it this year. Another hit for Ottawa? Could it be that we are finally turning things around? I'd love a storm where it snows with an air temperature of -15C or lower. Always get good snow ratios that way and I love being able to point out to people that it can indeed snow when it is bitterly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 so why not on the coast? Lack of blocking/-NAO. One way to have this do that ( end up on the coast ) though would be to have tomorrows/Tuesday event move a bit slower and stronger which could act as a bit of a blocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why not over you? The GGEM's track was stupid because the h5 was to far west for the low to be that far east. Should of been just inside the coastal plain. Who knows if even the h5 developes that way. The nam looks a bit like GGEM with the h5 but clearly further nw a smudge. the one thing that we can at least have some confidence in, is about a 50/50 shot of overrunning as the energy ejects from the rockies....that's something most models are beginning to show, and that is within 84 hrs. The big question is what happens after that.....phasing just hasn't happened this season so i'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM was funny. No way that makes it that far east. Haven't seen your positive attitude since we switched lol, no worries I had taken over your roll for a while.. Good to see you posting again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wonder what the ECMWF will try and spin tonight? My guess, the system the GGEM has, won't be there and instead, look like the 12z Euro. Then in the 150+hr timeframe, it will try and spin something else. the way the euro has been....it wouldn't shock me to have anything from complete suppression to a 982 bomb spinning up over dayton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the ggem reminded me a bit of pdII. That was a two-parter here. The first came with precip streaking out ahead of the ejecting energy out west, ( i remember iowa getting it pretty good with that as well). Then there was about an 18 hr lull and the next wave came as the storm phased and took the turn up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 the way the euro has been....it wouldn't shock me to have anything from complete suppression to a 982 bomb spinning up over dayton Hey now, if there's a 982 bomb i'd rather it be moving northeast through eastern KY into western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Out to HR 66, precip developing in the NE area. 1004 LOW in NE New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Out to HR 78. LT-MOD precip in MO. Sub 1004 low in SW Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HR 84: LT-MOD precip in C. MO to near STL. LT precip extends to N/C IL just south of Chicago. Sub 1008 low in N. Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HR 90: LT-MOD precip in S. MO to STL then east into S. IND. LOW is pretty much gone now. LT precip in IND, E. OH, and N. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ggem a little more west and we got March '08 (or was it '09) March 2008 FTW! Best storm I've ever witnessed here probably. Too bad I wasn't in Columbus back then...Gosh how I would love to see 24 inches fall at one time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the ggem reminded me a bit of pdII. That was a two-parter here. The first came with precip streaking out ahead of the ejecting energy out west, ( i remember iowa getting it pretty good with that as well). Then there was about an 18 hr lull and the next wave came as the storm phased and took the turn up the coast. I just remember waking up on presidents day to light snow that turned heavy. Snowed all day til around 11pm and ended with about 17" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HR 96: LT-MOD precip in S. IND, N. KY into C. and S. OH. LT precip in N. IND and C. IL and N. OH. Cold is much more pronounced this run, -24 C temps in WI heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HR 102: LT precip in C and E. OH. And that's the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As I figured, a toned down version of the GFS. GGEM the outlier.......... I wonder what the GGEM smokes sometimes. Remember its early November fantasy lol. euro hangs back the energy....if it didn't and it came out faster a phase would be more likely. Isn't that a euro bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro hangs back the energy....if it didn't and it came out faster a phase would be more likely. Isn't that a euro bias? Known bias to hang energy back in the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00Z Euro STL: .33 PIA: .06 IND: .20 PAH: .11 DAY: .22 CMH: .24 DET: .03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro hangs back the energy....if it didn't and it came out faster a phase would be more likely. Isn't that a euro bias? Hey we got .24" without a major phase...But I'm waiting for a big storm. That last one was disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Known bias to hang energy back in the Southwest. you can see it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hey we got .24" without a major phase...But I'm waiting for a big storm. That last one was disappointing im feeling good about some overrunning and would gladly take it. but im not convinced a ggem type scenario is that far fetched. the sw would have to eject quicker and the timing of the phase would have to be perfect...but it's still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Updated AFD's should be an interesting read in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro hangs back the energy....if it didn't and it came out faster a phase would be more likely. Isn't that a euro bias? not seeing anything being 'hung back' really. Looks very similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z NAM continues to hit IA/IL good where 6z GFS is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 6z NAM continues to hit IA/IL good where 6z GFS is south. It's wrong, Euro/GFS split looks pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It's wrong, Euro/GFS split looks pretty spot on. I don't think so, the Euro has been a mess as of late especially in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't think so, the Euro has been a mess as of late especially in this range. sure did a lot better on the current storm then other models and long range NAM FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 sure did a lot better on the current storm then other models and long range NAM FTL. A lot of the GFS ensembles are more phased than the OP but at the current time I wouldn't bet against the seasonal trends: La Nina style northern stream domination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A lot of the GFS ensembles are more phased than the OP but at the current time I wouldn't bet against the seasonal trends: La Nina style northern stream domination. I think it has potential at least, to say its a cross between GFS/Euro is foolish because both have bias issues at this phase, GFS suppression/cold bias and the Euro is trying to hold back energy in SW which is another known bias, I think at worst right now I'd look for something similar to the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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