Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thinking how well developed the upper level system over the Lakes on Tuesday night/ Wednesday becomes will determine where the Thu/Fri system ends up. Classic reasoning...more developed initial storm, less wavelength between the storms, more confluence, more chance of the second storm getting quashed. Hasn't that happened a lot lately thus we have seen a coule Miller A's and less miller B's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The EC snow weenies are loving them some Euro even though it has only verified about 2/50 coastal events. I think this will end up a bit stronger then models say, seem to be the trend with northern waves. so what impact would a stronger wave have on a coastal. Id much rather see most of the midwest get hit with snow over the east coast, in fact I would rather see me get rain and KC to LAF get snow. At least then it is a lakes cutter. Id rather see NW Arkansas to Paducah to Cincinnati get snow over the EC, so that is that. thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hasn't that happened a lot lately thus we have seen a coule Miller A's and less miller B's? Yes, basically. The pervasive -NAO/-AO pattern has broken down recently, but for basically all of cold weather parts of 2010, you'd have a semi-permanent vortex spinning somewhere near NFLD making sure any emerging storms in the Plains took a track too far S/E to do any good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yes, basically. The pervasive -NAO/-AO pattern has broken down recently, but for basically all of cold weather parts of 2010, you'd have a semi-permanent vortex spinning somewhere near NFLD making sure any emerging storms in the Plains took a track too far S/E to do any good for us. I havent looked much at the AO the past couple years but that seems to be playing more of a factor in supression this year than the NAO. If the AO relaxes, will that allows the storm track out west to come a little south. Curious what needs to happen to get that high in the pacific to be moved out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I havent looked much at the AO the past couple years but that seems to be playing more of a factor in supression this year than the NAO. If the AO relaxes, will that allows the storm track out west to come a little south. Curious what needs to happen to get that high in the pacific to be moved out of the way. La Nina to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I havent looked much at the AO the past couple years but that seems to be playing more of a factor in supression this year than the NAO. If the AO relaxes, will that allows the storm track out west to come a little south. Curious what needs to happen to get that high in the pacific to be moved out of the way. Based on the current status of the teleconnectors, and my limited research into the subject, I'd actually say that -NAO is more a determinative factor than -AO. I've seen 17" of snow in the last 9 days. Getting close to the amount of snow I saw all of last winter. It's no coincidence: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Based on the current status of the teleconnectors, and my limited research into the subject, I'd actually say that -NAO is more a determinative factor than -AO. I've seen 17" of snow in the last 9 days. Getting close to the amount of snow I saw all of last winter. It's no coincidence: Yea you're probably right, but they have tagged team together to supress. Even though it's going negative, its good to see it not tanking too much. Usually when the NAO is changing (towards the end of the week) the models have a tough time putting that into the equation. I hope the AO continues to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z NAM looks like it came north some from the 12z and is looking similar to the 12z GFS imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z NAM looks like it came north some from the 12z and is looking similar to the 12z GFS imo. big time congrats to IA... wow. Although without further digging/phasing and influx from the gulf, it would likely weaken substantially east. At least there's not a cutoff low meandering across the gulf states this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 big time congrats to IA... wow. Although without further digging/phasing and influx from the gulf, it would likely weaken substantially east. At least there's not a cutoff low meandering across the gulf states this time. lol so basically not good, but could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol so basically not good, but could be worse. at least it's showing 'something'... ...that's about the best we can hope for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Despite the 18z NAM shenanigans, I'm liking KC down to JLN and then east to STL to EVV to SDF for a solid 2-5". Crushing high pressure from the NW and limited gulf interaction will eat this things lunch as it heads east eventually. Should stay high and dry here in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 big time congrats to IA... wow. Although without further digging/phasing and influx from the gulf, it would likely weaken substantially east. At least there's not a cutoff low meandering across the gulf states this time. 12z GFS still put down 2-4 inches here so if the NAM is headed that way i would sure take it. Still hoping this turns into something bigger of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 at least it's showing 'something'... ...that's about the best we can hope for at this point. Anything that screws the EC is what I can hope for at this point The NAO really won't be that negative by the end of the week, but the AO is tanking again so guess that helps put us back into suppression mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Despite the 18z NAM shenanigans, I'm liking KC down to JLN and then east to STL to EVV to SDF for a solid 2-5". Crushing high pressure from the NW and limited gulf interaction will eat this things lunch as it heads east eventually. Should stay high and dry here in LAF. exactly right. This is what the nam is missing, virtually no HP pressing down. Meanwhile the euro and the ggem have strong high pressure centered over the central rockies/n.plains pressing in hard. This will be the feature to watch for. If it were just the ggem i wouldn't buy it, (it tends to overdo high pressure strength), but the euro shows it as well so that makes the nam solution very questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 exactly right. This is what the nam is missing, virtually no HP pressing down. Meanwhile the euro and the ggem have strong high pressure centered over the central rockies/n.plains pressing in hard. This will be the feature to watch for. If it were just the ggem i wouldn't buy it, (it tends to overdo high pressure strength), but the euro shows it as well so that makes the nam solution very questionable. NAM looks like the GFS now so you think the GFS is questionable too? Appears to be NAM/GFS vs GGEM/Euro attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM looks like the GFS now so you think the GFS is questionable too? Appears to be NAM/GFS vs GGEM/Euro attm. gfs has both scenarios....high pressure pressing in AND the nam solution on the surface...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 nam likely extrapolates to a decent event here. 18zgfs threw 78 hours has snow spreading into East Iowa, NE and East Central MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS through 78 looks to have the precip a little south with the heaviest along the IA/MO border instead of in just IA. No HP anywhere near the storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 SIgn me up, that is 7-8 inches here with that kind of cold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS looks like a real good hit for areas along and south of I-70 in OH/IN/IL/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS looks like a real good hit for areas along and south of I-70 in OH/IN/IL/MO. Looks decent I wouldn't say real good. 2-4 maybe 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 SIgn me up, that is 7-8 inches here with that kind of cold snow. That would be a nice hit...hope it works out for you Friv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks decent I wouldn't say real good. 2-4 maybe 3-5 Have to remember that ratios are going to be high with this. In fact i believe Indy in their AFD mentioned 20:1. I'll post when i find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 404 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GFS RUN BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...WENT ABOVE HPC/S POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT ANY THAT DOES FALL WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW. SO...WENT WITH A 20:1 RATIO. BITTER COLD/DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO THE AREA ALL SEASON. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S ON FRIDAY...AND LOWS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HPC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOKED REASONABLE...SO STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS QPF for this storm. 0.30-0.40+ from around I-70 south at 20:1 ratios as Indy suggests would be a widespread 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That would be a nice hit...hope it works out for you Friv. Thanks. I gotta feeling this will make inroads north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Thanks. I gotta feeling this will make inroads north 18z DGEX looks great for most everyone! Large area of 3-5 inches with lots of 6-7 inch areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 DT is getting worse than JB...yikes this based on one euro run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah, that 999 unorganized wave is really "hammering". Embarrasing. Considering the models can't even organize the upper levels correctly outside 84hrs, I think it is called "not posting". where you been Angry? I've missed your forecast analysis, (always with a dash of pessimism), for ohio storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.