ukrocks Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is what PAH is thinking as of right now. I'd like to be in the 2-4 inch range but oh well. But this system does not look like it wants to phase. I'll be up for the 00Z runs but I bet it will be gloom and doom again. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/pah/wx/File.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 im sticking to my guys....00z tells the tale. I'll make my call then. It's mostly about snow amounts, and where the heaviest axis aligns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Remember, it was the 12z EURO at D6 (or perhaps D5) that buried CMH in over an inch of liquid, all snow, with this storm. Stick with the seasonal trends and completely throw out any solution showing these phase jobs in the medium range. CMH is in a much better postion than you though, and certainly far better than me. ive said it before, if i lived in ohio i would never want this pattern to ever end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I woke up this morning expecting to make a pretty confident call but needless to say confidence has gone down. I think there's a danger of getting suckered in too much and assuming the trend will continue. Can't tell you how many times I've seen this type of model movement, then the bleeding stops and sometimes it tries to trend better at the last minute. One thing we should still have are above average ratios, which may not start out all that impressive but should trend better through the event. 15:1 event average is looking ok right now so then the question becomes how much precip do we get. good point. nothing dramatic but could start coming in a bit juicier at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At least it has something on the table. In that range though, it can change on the dime. Better than the GFS nonsense at the same time. Boy, if this was last year, that time range was right in the Euro's wheel house!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 im sticking to my guys....00z tells the tale. I'll make my call then. It's mostly about snow amounts, and where the heaviest axis aligns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 geezus...i didn't even catch that. lol see what staying up for the euro does to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FWIW the JMA didn't look bad Not worth much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 geezus...i didn't even catch that. lol see what staying up for the euro does to you? I didnt figure you did.. haha. It made me laugh through all the model sickness lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how is that a weenie??? i'm not saying it'll be better or worse just that im sticking to my original call that 00z wed tells the tale. Plenty other times i deserve a weenie, so don't waste them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm waiting to someone to dish out the Brazilian or Korean model, I know they're coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not worth much. baro....i had visions of apocalyptic phasing dancing in my head all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I woke up this morning expecting to make a pretty confident call but needless to say confidence has gone down. I think there's a danger of getting suckered in too much and assuming the trend will continue. Can't tell you how many times I've seen this type of model movement, then the bleeding stops and sometimes it tries to trend better at the last minute. One thing we should still have are above average ratios, which may not start out all that impressive but should trend better through the event. 15:1 event average is looking ok right now so then the question becomes how much precip do we get. I want to stick with my original call of 2-5", but the trends are disconcerting. Still I'll ride it out until the 0z runs. At that point I'll readjust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm waiting to someone to dish out the Brazilian or Korean model, I know they're coming. cras is usually good for a weenie booster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how is that a weenie??? i'm not saying it'll be better or worse just that im sticking to my original call that 00z wed tells the tale. Plenty other times i deserve a weenie, so don't waste them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 geezus...i didn't even catch that. lol see what staying up for the euro does to you? Never works out for me when I stay up for the EURO so I go to bed wake up in the middle of the night take a pee then take a look at the EURO thats about 3am/4am... I am still quite pestimistic on this storm I think the following QPF amounts CVG- .40 Day- .35 CMH. 35 ILN- .37 IND- .35 WIth 18 to 1 ratios average which means a general 3-6 inches for most of us souther I 70 in Ohio. I'll take it. Actually it will be warning criteria snows for Cincinnati lol. I think this whole warning/advisory criteria is BS I clearly think they need to make Cincinnati etc in the same criteria as Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It is weird reading this thread because my area is pretty much the targer, and I am the only one who really posts from STL all the time. I guess this means the 00z runs will start cutting down here. or hell, why not just start with the 18z nam and get it over with fast. STL is never the winner of a wide spread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Never works out for me when I stay up for the EURO so I go to bed wake up in the middle of the night take a pee then take a look at the EURO thats about 3am/4am... I am still quite pestimistic on this storm I think the following QPF amounts CVG- .40 Day- .35 CMH. 35 ILN- .37 IND- .35 WIth 18 to 1 ratios average which means a general 3-6 inches for most of us souther I 70 in Ohio. I'll take it. Actually it will be warning criteria snows for Cincinnati lol. I think this whole warning/advisory criteria is BS I clearly think they need to make Cincinnati etc in the same criteria as Dayton. what about stl? I am guessing .42 if IND is .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 CMH is in a much better postion than you though, and certainly far better than me. ive said it before, if i lived in ohio i would never want this pattern to ever end. I got no qualms with the pattern overall. Weakly +NAO/weakly -AO/weakly +PNA is usually a good combination for Toronto, and it has delivered the goods, just in the form of modest but frequent snowfalls. Problem is getting a bigger storm to develop. Shot in the dark guess as to the causation behind that problem is that the moderately strong Nina is reaking havoc with the STJ, unlike in 2007-08 when we had a weaker Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It is weird reading this thread because my area is pretty much the targer, and I am the only one who really posts from STL all the time. I guess this means the 00z runs will start cutting down here. or hell, why not just start with the 18z nam and get it over with fast. STL is never the winner of a wide spread event. Looks like it has a good chance to be this time.. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I got no qualms with the pattern overall. Weakly +NAO/weakly -AO/weakly +PNA is usually a good combination for Toronto, and it has delivered the goods, just in the form of modest but frequent snowfalls. Problem is getting a bigger storm to develop. Shot in the dark guess as to the causation behind that problem is that the moderately strong Nina is reaking havoc with the STJ, unlike in 2007-08 when we had a weaker Nina. im pretty sure i've read somewhere that weaker ninas love the app runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 what about stl? I am guessing .42 if IND is .35 Pretty close to that I would say...I just think things get a bit more juicy by about .05-.10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It is weird reading this thread because my area is pretty much the targer, and I am the only one who really posts from STL all the time. I guess this means the 00z runs will start cutting down here. or hell, why not just start with the 18z nam and get it over with fast. STL is never the winner of a wide spread event. Don't fall into the pessimism trap. Guidance has continued to point to a nice dump for STL. You're looking good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 January 18th and still no Winter Storm Watch yet for my area this season. I miss last year's overperforming clippers! this would be an interesting question for Jbcmh.... when was the last winter franklin county went without a single winterstorm watch/warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 im pretty sure i've read somewhere that weaker ninas love the app runner. The past 3 seasons confirm my suspicion that the atlantic plays a bigger factor around here than the actual strength of the ENSO. Tehse past two seasons prove -NAO does nothing for us if you want big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Don't fall into the pessimism trap. Guidance has continued to point to a nice dump for STL. You're looking good IMO. Your right, this is def going to put us a good 50 percent above normal in snowfall. I am hoping this season we break 30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 PAH qpf is .12 from what I hear not looking good. My first call for my area is 1-3 inches. Hope to raise it later on tonight but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I got no qualms with the pattern overall. Weakly +NAO/weakly -AO/weakly +PNA is usually a good combination for Toronto, and it has delivered the goods, just in the form of modest but frequent snowfalls. Problem is getting a bigger storm to develop. Shot in the dark guess as to the causation behind that problem is that the moderately strong Nina is reaking havoc with the STJ, unlike in 2007-08 when we had a weaker Nina. yes i agree. but also, that exactly what i meant when i said i wouldnt want this pattern to ever end. ....whatever it is and what is causing it. it is EXTREMELY disturbing (lol) to see new england hit by major snow and ice today again, and again likely on friday in this pattern that we are now currenltly in and have been for some time. something much larger going on here.,,,,,3 events in a row, i suppose could be normal variance, but to deliver 0 snow up here in those 3 instances....highly suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It is weird reading this thread because my area is pretty much the targer, and I am the only one who really posts from STL all the time. I guess this means the 00z runs will start cutting down here. or hell, why not just start with the 18z nam and get it over with fast. STL is never the winner of a wide spread event. good luck Friv! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The past 3 seasons confirm my suspicion that the atlantic plays a bigger factor around here than the actual strength of the ENSO. Definitely agree with this point generally, but that's not the problem now in regards to this storm. The Atlantic is cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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