buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro farther south/not as "amplified" through 54 hours. yep way weaker and slides east off VA pretty far as a 1004 low at 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 6z NAM continues to hit IA/IL good where 6z GFS is south. It's wrong, Euro/GFS split looks pretty spot on. I don't think so, the Euro has been a mess as of late especially in this range. sure did a lot better on the current storm then other models and long range NAM FTL. Riding the Euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 yep way weaker and slides east off VA pretty far as a 1004 low at 72... better than another NYC bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 better than another NYC bomb. Now one trend I've noticed this season is the models will start off showing an east coast bomb, then they'll slowly trend towards an OTS solution, then by 48 hours bring back the bomb. So yeah, there's a fair chance we'll see another NYC/Boston bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cliff notes version of the 12z Euro: -KC/NW MO gets smacked at 42 hours -JLN to STL to IND to CMH look like the zone of best snows thereafter, but more so for JLN/STL (3-6"?) than IND/CMH (2-4"?) -Going to be further QPF reductions on the north side -And for those that care, the NE gets pretty much whiffed as well Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 better than another NYC bomb. true, i think this one will be wide right for new england as well. Not to troll someone elses threat, but c'mon, 3 blizzards in 2 weeks is entirely unacceptable and greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Now one trend I've noticed this season is the models will start off showing an east coast bomb, then they'll slowly trend towards an OTS solution, then by 48 hours bring back the bomb. So yeah, there's a fair chance we'll see another NYC/Boston bomb. Not with this set up. Everything is progressive with a kicker coming up quick on the northwestern flanks. I'd give it a <10% chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still .30 but I am not liking the trends! The BUS is reaching an icy patch I think Hope it doesn't slip and fall off the cliff again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nice. Looking good. At least 0.25", not more than 0.50"...if you get my drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 oh great, here comes another slp orgy in from the west at day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nope. Either this phases west of the apps or it doesn't phase at all. It is why the NAM struggled during last nights 0z run a bit. The potential is there, see the GGEM's solution. It'll probably be more progressive than what we've seen so far, but still could end up being a nice hit for them, especially further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ...and of course one of the casualties of a non-phased wave sliding off the coast is the arctic plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How did the euro do qpf wise for the midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sticking with my call of 2-3" Game, set, to be continued.. Last shot at redemption 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not with this set up. Everything is progressive with a kicker coming up quick on the northwestern flanks. I'd give it a <10% chance of happening. There will be a good chance at a strong coastal low--I think you have too low of a probability there. A bomb no--but true bombs are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Again nope. The GGEM solution is invalid. Either if phases west of the apps, or it doesn't phase at all. NAM & (to a lesser extent) the GFS shows the solution too. It can always be a partial phase, I'm not saying its probable, but it's just as likely as a stronger storm west of the apps or an OTS solution. EDIT: I am using the term bomb loosely. This certainly won't be a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like a nice 3-5 inch event here which i'll gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 euro day 6 has an interesting look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sticking with my call of 2-3" Game, set, to be continued.. Last shot at redemption 0z.. As I said earlier, this looks like a repeat of last week. NAM too high with 6", Euro too high with 4" but trending down to the GFS which is at 2.9" where it stays the entire event. I'm going with our 3rd 3" event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There will be a good chance at a strong coastal low--I think you have too low of a probability there. A bomb no--but true bombs are rare. We'll see. Decent sized hit for them...sure it's possible/probable. But I think the gist was for another EC bomb or even a MECS, for which I put <10% chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As I said earlier, this looks like a repeat of last week. NAM too high with 6", Euro too high with 4" but trending down to the GFS which is at 2.9" where it stays the entire event. I'm going with our 3rd 3" event of the season. best bet at this point.. I wont make that a final call until 0z tonight though. It's almost a wait and see game now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As I said earlier, this looks like a repeat of last week. NAM too high with 6", Euro too high with 4" but trending down to the GFS which is at 2.9" where it stays the entire event. I'm going with our 3rd 3" event of the season. im sticking to my guys....00z tells the tale. I'll make my call then. It's mostly about snow amounts, and where the heaviest axis aligns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 euro day 6 has an interesting look Remember, it was the 12z EURO at D6 (or perhaps D5) that buried CMH in over an inch of liquid, all snow, with this storm. Stick with the seasonal trends and completely throw out any solution showing these phase jobs in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We'll see. Decent sized hit for them...sure it's possible/probable. But I think the gist was for another EC bomb or even a MECS, for which I put <10% chance of happening. Ah yes, that's where the confusion came about. I was just referenced the same term Alek used (probably not the best idea). By "bomb", I did mean another strong coastal low/decent hit for them, nothing historical. Of course, any coastal low that produces greater than a foot of snow is "major" for the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Remember, it was the 12z EURO at D6 (or perhaps D5) that was buried CMH in over an inch of liquid, all snow, with this storm. Stick with the seasonal trends and completely throw out any solution showing these phase jobs in the medium range. *slap* *slap* thanks dude, i can't believe i almost got taken again edit: actually the 168 hr solution looks very typical for this year. low over chicago, low over VA, low over Fl. panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Remember, it was the 12z EURO at D6 (or perhaps D5) that was buried CMH in over an inch of liquid, all snow, with this storm. Stick with the seasonal trends and completely throw out any solution showing these phase jobs in the medium range. January 18th and still no Winter Storm Watch yet for my area this season. I miss last year's overperforming clippers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cliff notes version of the 12z Euro: -KC/NW MO gets smacked at 42 hours -JLN to STL to IND to CMH look like the zone of best snows thereafter, but more so for JLN/STL (3-6"?) than IND/CMH (2-4"?) -Going to be further QPF reductions on the north side -And for those that care, the NE gets pretty much whiffed as well I woke up this morning expecting to make a pretty confident call but needless to say confidence has gone down. I think there's a danger of getting suckered in too much and assuming the trend will continue. Can't tell you how many times I've seen this type of model movement, then the bleeding stops and sometimes it tries to trend better at the last minute. One thing we should still have are above average ratios, which may not start out all that impressive but should trend better through the event. 15:1 event average is looking ok right now so then the question becomes how much precip do we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FWIW the JMA didn't look bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 January 18th and still no Winter Storm Watch yet for my area this season. I miss last year's overperforming clippers! yep, which actually means the nws deserves a kudos. This next one should clearly fall into advisory levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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