buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who in the their right mind takes a D5+ solution seriously anyways, they're fluid and you watch the trends. As for this season, I can't think of a single bust either way, legit threats materialized as modeled and low probability events, missed wide. If you've payed attention to models and factored in a couple seasonal trends, it's been pretty easy to see what's going to happen within a reasonable time frame. That said, they're will always be scenarios were small changes can lead to drastic wx difference within a small geographic area, but they happen every year. how has chicago fared so far this season....what was your biggest event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 storm does everything it can to possibly avoid us here, taking the circular route seasonal trends are a b**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still looks great here, but I would much rather see a more wide spread storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 storm does everything it can to possibly avoid us here, taking the circular route seasonal trends are a b**** feel your pain...all the clipper waa events in December did that too us moving clockwise around us north to south to east. Damn block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still looks great here, but I would much rather see a more wide spread storm. Yep. Most of you MO folks will score pretty well it looks like. 3-6" with some lollipops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 feel your pain...all the clipper waa events in December did that too us moving clockwise around us north to south to east. Damn block well you're looking good for a few, maybe several inches if the storm track this season was a mere 50 miles further NW, id be having a great winter....unfortuantely they keep hitting the wall off new england. ive never had so many warnings 30 miles away while i get nothing lol, today is the 4th time and friday will be the 5th time. cant wait to move somewhere warm someday so i dont have to look at the models anymore lol rant over/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 how has chicago fared so far this season....what was your biggest event? 5.5 or so, lots of 2-4 inch events. Probably sitting somewhere around normal but it's going to start lagging soon. All rough guesses though since i don't keep track of these things all too closely, pretty much the opposite of Chistorm in that regard. Most of the clipper train passed to my southwest as the lakes blocking flexed it's muscle. I'd be well below average if not for a couple nice gifts from the lake. Synoptically, it has been a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Amazing people are getting so hyped up by this storm. Never had alot of support and now is looking more and more like a northern stream event........for everybody. It is what it is. wave on the arctic boundary....basically. It's probably the best we could hope for out of this setup. I think we were just holding out for a more phased nam-ish solution. Damn baro got me all lathered up with his apocalyptic talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Amazing people are getting so hyped up by this storm. Never had alot of support and now is looking more and more like a northern stream event........for everybody. It is what it is. Yep. But when you keep getting ur balls busted it gets old lol.. I'm saying 2-3" not even going to bother making a map for this one I don't believe.. what time does the ukie show, Buckeye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep. But when you keep getting ur balls busted it gets old lol.. I'm saying 2-3" not even going to bother making a map for this one I don't believe.. what time does the ukie show, Buckeye? 12z Ukie is already out. Looks like the GFS for all intents and purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Weird, this link worked for me http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ But when I try my bookmark (same URL) it doesn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z Ukie is already out. Looks like the GFS for all intents and purposes. yep...thru 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wave on the arctic boundary....basically. It's probably the best we could hope for out of this setup. I think we were just holding out for a more phased nam-ish solution. Damn baro got me all lathered up with his apocalyptic talk. Yep, but baro had a right to get excited. The gfs was consistantly getting closer with each run to a phase and then 0z went the opposite direction of what it had been doing.. So ya can't blame him. Blame the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep, but baro had a right to get excited. The gfs was consistantly getting closer with each run to a phase and then 0z went the opposite direction of what it had been doing.. So ya can't blame him. Blame the models. now watch the euro come in with a monster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WSW just popped for NW MO. Text calling for 4-7" with isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 now watch the euro come in with a monster... It's happened before. Models start t go more towards the EURO, then BAM! Euro changes course lol. I can think of 2 seperate times this year that has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS ensembles look like a steaming pile except for right along the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cobb output on the nam has 6.3 inches for me. 5.3 inches from GFS, will assume Ukmet is similiar with .35 or so QPF. then the GEM, well guy tries to drop about 8 inches here. the nogaps drops around 6-6.5 which is insane for it. that leaves the RGEM which is wet threw 48, not as wet as the GGEM but looks like a 6 inch hit extrapolated. King is next.. I will say this..I am glad the nam is not the outlier with 6-10 inches while the rest have 2-4 inches. I would say 5-6 looks good right now. ratios will be high and we will see prolonged lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS ensembles look like a steaming pile except for right along the Ohio River. Its 3rd down and 25 and you have a run play drawn up, sound like next model runs will be the 4th down punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its 3rd down and 25 and you have a run play drawn up, sound like next model runs will be the 4th down punt yep, now the NAM is holding on by a thread. It's up to the EURO to bring this ship from the brink of sinking... In all serious though, if the EURO comes in looking similar to the GFS it's a 80% chance that game is over for any big snows.. The other 20% would be jic they decide to shift back tonight once it is on shore and sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HAHA to lighten up the room I thought I'd do a timeline of events for many OH posters.. Some of you may get a laugh.. last night: Nam run comes out. Ohio posters: Woohoo! Direct Hit! I think we should gas up the snow mobiles for this one Other Models come out: "Oh well it still shows a decent hit for us." Still a good 5"+ snowfall. Lets go to bed and get refreshed for the great things we are going to see on the 12z runs.. WOOHOO!!! 12z runs: Nam comes out. Ohio Posters: Not as good as last night but still a great hit for many of us. No we need to see what the other models have to say.. Other Models come out. Ohio posters: Wow well that sucks, but we still have the Euro to hope for. Euro comes out. Ohio Posters: That's it. I have had it with this winter.. Stupid models anyways, I'll show them. DO do do do wop, another day in the life of a Ohio Weather Weenie.. the end. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro farther south/not as "amplified" through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HR 54: LT-MOD precip throughout most of MO, through STL, and into S. IND. LT precip in OH, N. MO, C. IL, and IND. HR 60: LT precip in SE MO, C. IL, most of Ind., and most of OH. LT-MOD precip in S. IND and MAYBE extreme SW Ohio. HR 66: LT precip Ohio, storm is pretty much done. I highly doubt OH gets more then .2 in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Time of Death: 1:07 pm EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 To each his own. But quite frankly, I think you know why this thing is turning out the way it is. Pretty simple...no phase, northern domination...etc, etc. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not sure what's shocking about models progressively adjusting their solutions as we approach an event. The writing was on the all with this one 2 days ago and the models have done a fine job aside from a couple of minor timing issues which game borderline folks some hope, but they've been pretty consistent with the big picture. In fact thinking back on the year, i can't think of a single major model bust IMBY. Very well put. Outside of the lake effect it has been a very easy (well, relatively speaking) winter forecasting these synoptic events within 5 days. Anybody who takes a model forecast (details) beyond 5 days seriously needs help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cliff notes version of the 12z Euro: -KC/NW MO gets smacked at 42 hours -JLN to STL to IND to CMH look like the zone of best snows thereafter, but more so for JLN/STL (3-6"?) than IND/CMH (2-4"?) -Going to be further QPF reductions on the north side -And for those that care, the NE gets pretty much whiffed as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 JMA still a good hit. I personally never see this model do well, but figured Id post it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Time of Death: 1:07 pm EST. The hike, and the kick, boy a 5.4 second hangtime on that punt. Fair catch at the 10 yard line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 JMA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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