buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thanks for the visual. I would assume the later phasing is also keeping this storm further south? If there wasnt any left over confluence in the NE, would that allow for an earlier phase or would the storm still likely slide to our south? probalby not an earlier phase but it would probably head a little more northeast and bring precip with it further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll be honest it is starting to get a little annoying how things are playing out this winter with the models and then the sensible weather itself. Yup. I've said it before..you'd think plain luck would send a bigger one our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 meh, still has a 50/50 shot at being our biggest 24 hr event. 4+ We will see. Still have 3 main models to look at. Just based on the winter for us thus far 2-4" would be the safe call.. Unless I see something that says otherwise, that's what Id go with. I can't buy the NAM by itself, so let's see the rest of the model runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It isn't what i expected early in the winter base on long range calls, but the models have been fine. yea this winter was supposed to be an upper midwest and lakes bonanza....ouch. To me, the most disappointing aspect is the absolute lack of any decent looking system developing west of the apps. Nothing but sloppy, cluster f*cks, with several low centers until they get together over the MA and NE coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We will see. Still have 3 main models to look at. Just based on the winter for us thus far 2-4" would be the safe call.. Unless I see something that says otherwise, that's what Id go with. I can't buy the NAM by itself, so let's see the rest of the model runs.. To me, this is a repeat of last week. NAM is overdone, EC is slightly high, GFS right on the money. I'd say 2-3" is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It isn't what i expected early in the winter base on long range calls, but the models have been fine. Other than showing one thing and as we progress along diverging from that solution? Alek come on now you know the models have been far from fine this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 probalby not an earlier phase but it would probably head a little more northeast and bring precip with it further north So many ingredients. Makes you appreciate the snow even more when it does come. Would be nice if these storms came into the SW. It seems the energy stays together and a stronger low comes out of the four corners more often than when it comes out of the NW. I'll pass on phasing. We are batting .000 with potential phasing. While the EC has had 2 storms they aren't doing any better at the plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Other than showing one thing and as we progress along diverging from that solution? Alek come on now you know the models have been far from fine this winter. I'm not sure what's shocking about models progressively adjusting their solutions as we approach an event. The writing was on the all with this one 2 days ago and the models have done a fine job aside from a couple of minor timing issues which game borderline folks some hope, but they've been pretty consistent with the big picture. In fact thinking back on the year, i can't think of a single major model bust IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not sure what's shocking about models progressively adjusting their solutions as we approach an event. The writing was on the all with this one 2 days ago and the models have done a fine job aside from a couple of minor timing issues which game borderline folks some hope, but they've been pretty consistent with the big picture. In fact thinking back on the year, i can't think of a single major model bust IMBY. Well your backyard is one location, I am talking region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not sure what's shocking about models progressively adjusting their solutions as we approach an event. The writing was on the all with this one 2 days ago and the models have done a fine job aside from a couple of minor timing issues which game borderline folks some hope, but they've been pretty consistent with the big picture. In fact thinking back on the year, i can't think of a single major model bust IMBY. they've been horrendous longrange....say 5 days plus. Debatable inside of that. Handling of the mythical arctic intrusion is a perfect example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 they've been horrendous longrange....say 5 days plus. Debatable inside of that. Handling of the mythical arctic intrusion is a perfect example This, and I'm not saying just for the bad either, we had a storm here that ended up being much better because a low formed in Western Lake Erie that was forecasted only about 12 hours before it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 they've been horrendous longrange....say 5 days plus. Debatable inside of that. Handling of the mythical arctic intrusion is a perfect example Who in the their right mind takes a D5+ solution seriously anyways, they're fluid and you watch the trends. As for this season, I can't think of a single bust either way, legit threats materialized as modeled and low probability events, missed wide. If you've payed attention to models and factored in a couple seasonal trends, it's been pretty easy to see what's going to happen within a reasonable time frame. That said, they're will always be scenarios were small changes can lead to drastic wx difference within a small geographic area, but they happen every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not sure what's shocking about models progressively adjusting their solutions as we approach an event. The writing was on the all with this one 2 days ago and the models have done a fine job aside from a couple of minor timing issues which game borderline folks some hope, but they've been pretty consistent with the big picture. In fact thinking back on the year, i can't think of a single major model bust IMBY. Yeah, all in all the models have been pretty good, which is amazing considering how unusual our pattern is. Of course we should naturally expect them to do their minor cha-cha's, but with every storm this season they haven't steered away from a general solution (by "general", I mean they consistently show one area getting something without any major NW/SE shifts). No sane person can deny they have been on top of things with these east coast storms (in a strong La Nina no less), and they handled the Octobomb and the other midewst cutters earlier this season execptionally well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ew, GFS only pooped out .20" up here. Euro had around 0.32" last night, so hopefully it continues the higher trend at 12z. This reminds of last week though...GFS was low, NAM was high, Euro was in the middle but trending lower and we ended up much closer (but slightly above) to the GFS numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This, and I'm not saying just for the bad either, we had a storm here that ended up being much better because a low formed in Western Lake Erie that was forecasted only about 12 hours before it occurred. Last line is one positive for a lot of us. This is by no means a lock. I won't trust a solution outside of 24hrs this winter. Still plenty of time for things to change, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GGEM a touch weaker and a touch further SE at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GGEM still hammers JLN and STL. Oops, I probably shouldn't post any positive news. My bad. Looking like a 2-4" deal for here...barring any more changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GGEM still hammers JLN and STL. Oops, I probably shouldn't post any positive news. My bad. Looking like a 2-4" deal for here...barring any more changes. Anyone seen hampster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GGEM still hammers JLN and STL. Oops, I probably shouldn't post any positive news. My bad. Looking like a 2-4" deal for here...barring any more changes. Sadly there will be more changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Anyone seen hampster? He's going to EIU right now. And last I thought I heard, he was having computer (or lack of) issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Anybody else experiencing issues with the NCEP site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Anybody else experiencing issues with the NCEP site? I'm getting a FORBIDDEN message. Guess they got tired of us wasting their bandwidth by re-checking models every couple minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sadly there will be more changes Eh, if this thing turns into crap on a stick for here...so be it. It's weather...and sometimes it sucks. At least, hopefully the areas farther south in MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH get in on some good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm getting a FORBIDDEN message. Guess they got tired of us wasting their bandwidth by re-checking models every couple minutes. Same thing here. Don't have permission to access.. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm getting a FORBIDDEN message. Guess they got tired of us wasting their bandwidth by re-checking models every couple minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm getting a FORBIDDEN message. Guess they got tired of us wasting their bandwidth by re-checking models every couple minutes. Yeah, same here. I need my 384 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Eh, if this thing turns into crap on a stick for here...so be it. It's weather...and sometimes it sucks. At least, hopefully the areas farther south in MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH get in on some good stuff. For me personally I like to know WHY this & that went wrong and what can happen for it to go right next time instead of saying "oh well, it's weather and it sucks, better luck next time." It takes the fun out of it otherwise, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who in the their right mind takes a D5+ solution seriously anyways, they're fluid and you watch the trends. As for this season, I can't think of a single bust either way, legit threats materialized as modeled and low probability events, missed wide. If you've payed attention to models and factored in a couple seasonal trends, it's been pretty easy to see what's going to happen within a reasonable time frame. That said, they're will always be scenarios were small changes can lead to drastic wx difference within a small geographic area, but they happen every year. def agree for MBY very easy winter to call no major busts other than typical 5 day out ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For me personally I like to know WHY this & that went wrong and what can happen for it to go right next time instead of saying "oh well, it's weather and it sucks, better luck next time." It takes the fun out of it otherwise, at least for me. To each his own. But quite frankly, I think you know why this thing is turning out the way it is. Pretty simple...no phase, northern domination...etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GGEM a touch weaker and a touch further SE at 60. yep once it gets east especially. before that it's still a decent i-70 corridor hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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