Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Another measure I can use to judge this winter so far, Detroit Public Schools always close when here's at least 6" on the ground after a storm. They have yet to close schools this winter so far. Of course in 2007-2008 they ran out of their available snow days, that is wihout it seeping over into summer vacation(I think a week's worth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 personally i'd take a 12"er followed by 65-70 followed by a 12"er followed by 65-70 etc. Snowpack is boring. While snowpack itself is boring, I would rather have it hold for the next storm just to see how much it can build. Chicago doesn't hold snowcover as well as here, so I can understand how you almost expect to lose it in between decent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Umm...there has been 1 imby, pretty much everyone in SE MI have had one (the screw areas Dec 12th were the jackpot Jan 11th). And stuck in 2007-08? Im not talking about NW trending (that was 07-08), Im talking about the models struggling until a system is sampled. The NWS discos talk about it all the time. Oh, and thanks for calling me delusional, imo delusional was thinking you wouldnt get to 30" with 4 months of snow left. Guess "delusional" is a relative term. Whats the average for SEMI in a year for 8"+ snowfall storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Face it, Detroit just doesn't get giant snowstorms on a regular basis. I accept that, jsut like snowstormcanuck a couple weeks ago accepted Toronto gets even fewer regularly. That said, Detroit should have had at least 3 WSW by now on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Another measure I can use to judge this winter so far, Detroit Public Schools always close when here's at least 6" on the ground after a storm. They have yet to close schools this winter so far. Of course in 2007-2008 they ran out of their available snow days, that is wihout it seeping over into summer vacation(I think a week's worth). You're the JI of the central forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 . hat said, Detrtoir should have had at least 3 WSW by now on average. Where do you get this stat from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Can we keep this on topic, we don't need the shots at each other. This region is better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 And the climo can support constant snowcover just as much as it can support bigger snowstorms. El Nino is better if you're looking for constant snowcover and La Nina is better if you want bigger snowstorms. However, climo does not support both around these parts, which is where the problem comes about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You're as bad as the mid atlantic weenies. Face it, Detroit just doesn't get giant snowstorms on a regular basis. 1. We dont have a big moisture source 2.. Were in the transfer low zone. Its unlikely for us to ever get 20"+ I know its happen 3-4 times but the last was in 1974 and in 2005 which could have been Detroits worst snowstorm ever! if it was 2-3 weeks earlier. I measured 16" and it only accumulated at night. It could have been a 26-36 inch snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I accept that, jsut like snowstormcanuck a couple weeks ago accepted Toronto gets even fewer regularly. hat said, Detrtoir should have had at least 3 WSW by now on average. I'm not talking about a 16-20"+ crippling blizzard. I know that's outside the capacity of my climo. I'm talking about your simple 6-10" WSW type storm. I haven't seen that in more than 2 years (I think it was Dec 19, 2008 as well, and just barely - 6.6"), which is quite atypical. I don't have any hard stats, but just looking through my personal records, I'd say we'd average 2 of those type of storms per winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Can we keep this on topic, we don't need the shots at each other. This region is better than that. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Umm...there has been 1 imby, pretty much everyone in SE MI have had one (the screw areas Dec 12th were the jackpot Jan 11th). And stuck in 2007-08? Im not talking about NW trending (that was 07-08), Im talking about the models struggling until a system is sampled. The NWS discos talk about it all the time. Oh, and thanks for calling me delusional, imo delusional was thinking you wouldnt get to 30" with 4 months of snow left. Guess "delusional" is a relative term. i think everyone is a bit frustrated at seeing the big storms hit the same areas over and over again. even now with the block broken down, the same thing continues to happen. its disturbing but as you said, at least we all have some snow here and there.....its winter....its just not our big winter, but theres always next year. btw, the old adage 'snows where it wants to snow'.....thats the real forecasting technique you can take to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not talking about a 16-20"+ crippling blizzard. I know that's outside the capacity of my climo. I'm talking about your simple 6-10" WSW type storm. I haven't seen that in more than 2 years (I think it was Dec 19, 2008 as well, and just barely - 6.6"), which is quite atypical. YEah, I'm talking about those too. Apparently everyone thinks I'm speaking of the 20" type storms, which is hard to get anywhere. At that note, I'll end it here, this discussion doesn't need to go any further on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm not talking about a 16-20"+ crippling blizzard. I know that's outside the capacity of my climo. I'm talking about your simple 6-10" WSW type storm. I haven't seen that in more than 2 years (I think it was Dec 19, 2008 as well, and just barely - 6.6"), which is quite atypical. At least you have room to complain after the fiasco you had last Winter. Powerball would complain if he got five 20 inch storms in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 he got room in that club? Nickles and dimes here...mostly nickles. Finally have a quarter in our sights but it's looking a bit tenuous. One thing about winters like this around here. If we continue to get nickled and dimed thru feb, i bet we dont escape the season without another march/april blockbuster. CMH loves those late winter/early spring big ones. yeah its funny, how things are relative. we've basically had no winter in montreal and we are at about 3 feet of snow total. ottawa has taken it on the chin this year though vs climo. but, point being its all relative. personally, as a snowlover, i could never live in some of the places you guys do......well i could live there, i just wouldnt follow the models, it would drive me crazy ( i lived in nyc for 7 years and never followed the models except out to 48 hours if i heard about a big event, it worked nicely)...... i really honestly admire the snow weenies from the south and the MA and ohio screwzone.....you guys truly deserve snow for your persistentce, you are either all crazy or extremely motivated lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Powerball would complain if he got five 20 inch storms in a row. FYI, experiencing that would be the equivalent of me (or anyone) WINNING the Powerball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe a dumb question, but with the rather weak lows currently, doesn't it seem the cold air is being pushed and replenished too far south? Usually that happens when a strong system rolls through. The baroclinic zone is pushed further south than I would expect. At hour 24 on both the Nam and GFS the estimated freezing line is all the way down into tenessee. This after everyone south if I-80 received mostly rain from this current energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Maybe a dumb question, but with the rather weak lows currently, doesn't it seem the cold air is being pushed and replenished too far south? Usually that happens when a strong system rolls through. The baroclinic zone is pushed further south than I would expect. At hour 24 on both the Nam and GFS the estimated freezing line is all the way down into tenessee. This after everyone south if I-80 received mostly rain from this current energy. The system still gets pretty strong, it just does so further east. It's the same cycle we've seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The system still gets pretty strong, it just does so further east. It's the same cycle we've seen all winter. Not sure if you are talking about this upcoming storm or the curent ones affecting the NE and OV. I was talking about the current storm off the coast and the one in the ohio valley bringing down too mcuh cold air behind them, thus suppressing and keeping this upcoming storm too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Trough positively tilted at 54 on the GFS. Whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Trough positively tilted at 54 on the GFS. Whiff. yea, but if i had to scrape up anything positive from the 12z runs, it's that they've gone back closer to the 00z runs than the 6z runs. But in general you're right....nothing special to see here. Probably an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not sure if you are talking about this upcoming storm or the curent ones affecting the NE and OV. I was talking about the current storm off the coast and the one in the ohio valley bringing down too mcuh cold air behind them, thus suppressing and keeping this upcoming storm too far south. The cold air itself isn't supressing the storm, but rather whatever's happening upstream in the Atlantic. In this case we look to have just enough of a -NAO/-AO block to surpess this storm. What our current storm could do is pretty much stall somewhere off the Canadian coast and just spin there since it has nowhere to go with the building ridge in Greenland (50/50 low), and it could be just close enough to leave our region in its confluence/subsidence, and that chokes the life out of a storm. That's why other members are always exclaiming how they want the east coast storm to get out of here ASAP. On the flipside, without all of that mess I stated above in thw Atlantic, the SE ridge flexes its muscles and the storm cuts NW of us as we torch. So basically outside of clippers the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is pretty much on a gentle thread the needle basis when it comes to getting these winter storms. One tiny thing goes wrong and the whole house of cards collapses. That probably explains some of the frustration around here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yea. GFS says forget it I-70.. I just find it amazing the way models have shifted 2 days out this winter. Oh well. For us in Ohio I think the past 3 winters have spoiled us. Fact is, this is just a typical winter in Ohio. Nam gives 5-7" and GFS 2-3". Safe call at this point would be the 2-3" EURO FTW again. Fact is EURO is king. Its becoming almost pointless to even look at the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The cold air itself isn't supressing the storm, but rather whatever's happening upstream in the Atlantic. In this case we look to have just enough of a -NAO/-AO block to surpess this storm. What our current storm could do is pretty much stall somewhere off the Canadian coast and just spin there since it has nowhere to go with the building ridge in Greenland (50/50 low), and it could be just close enough to leave our region in its confluence/subsidence, and that chokes the life out of a storm. That's why other members are always exclaiming how they want the east coast storm to get out of here ASAP. On the flipside, without it there, the SE ridge flexes its muscles and the storm cuts NW of us as we torch. Yea thats been happening all winter. Storms look good heading into the plains and they are shunted Se because of an EC LOW stuck. If we had a a more + AO and NAO that would likely not be a problem but it could be a MSp special. We need the perfect combination of teleconnections which unusually happens. sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The cold air itself isn't supressing the storm, but rather whatever's happening upstream in the Atlantic. In this case we look to have just enough of a -NAO/-AO block to surpess this storm. What our current storm could do is pretty much stall somewhere off the Canadian coast and just spin there since it has nowhere to go with the building ridge in Greenland (50/50 low), and it could be just close enough to leave our region in its confluence/subsidence, and that chokes the life out of a storm. That's why other members are always exclaiming how they want the east coast storm to get out of here ASAP. On the flipside, without all of that mess I stated above in thw Atlantic, the SE ridge flexes its muscles and the storm cuts NW of us as we torch. So basically outside of clippers the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is pretty much on a gentle thread the needle basis when it comes to getting these winter storms. One tiny thing goes wrong and the whole house of cards collapses. That probably explains some of the frustration around here too. you can see the gfs and nam are fairly similar at 5h 48hrs. Biggest diff is the gfs has more significant confluence over the northeast keeping ridging ahead beaten down and causing more progression than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll be honest it is starting to get a little annoying how things are playing out this winter with the models and then the sensible weather itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yea. GFS says forget it I-70.. I just find it amazing the way models have shifted 2 days out this winter. Oh well. For us in Ohio I think the past 3 winters have spoiled us. Fact is, this is just a typical winter in Ohio. Nam gives 5-7" and GFS 2-3". Safe call at this point would be the 2-3" EURO FTW again. Fact is EURO is king. Its becoming almost pointless to even look at the other models. meh, still has a 50/50 shot at being our biggest 24 hr event. 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 you can see the gfs and nam are fairly similar at 5h 48hrs. Biggest diff is the gfs has more significant confluence over the northeast keeping ridging ahead beaten down and causing more progression than the nam Thanks for the visual. I would assume the later phasing is also keeping this storm further south? If there wasnt any left over confluence in the NE, would that allow for an earlier phase or would the storm still likely slide to our south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll be honest it is starting to get a little annoying how things are playing out this winter with the models and then the sensible weather itself. my tongue wasn't in my cheek when i said trust no model outside 48hrs this winter. (and even 48hrs might be too generous) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'll be honest it is starting to get a little annoying how things are playing out this winter with the models and then the sensible weather itself. It isn't what i expected early in the winter base on long range calls, but the models have been fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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