snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep, nothing like writing off a storm before its onshore. So far this winter SE MI has seen normal snowfall and above normal snowcover...yep, such a disaster Who's saying that? He's disappointed because of the lack of a "big storm" so far this winter, and I share his sentiments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, the models have been a MESS this winter for the most part. Best anecdote I can give you...the models frequently weaken or even lose a storm completely 3-5 days out, only to bring it back once it gets at least partially sampled onshore. You seem to be stuck in 2007-08. How many 6"+ storms have rolled through yby so far this winter? Over here, there have been none. However, I can sure remember the models depicting several of them 5 days out. 5 days ago today is a good example. I admire your optimism Josh but sometimes it borders on delusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 looks like nam is still going with a phaser. similar to 00z a bit southeast and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 looks like nam is still going with a phaser. similar to 00z a bit southeast and weaker. There are a lot more 9z SREF members in the less phased camp than there was at 21z. I'm inclined to side with the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There are a lot more 9z SREF members in the less phased camp then there was at 21z. I'm inclined to side with the EURO. Sadly the truth. I think this time the problem is there is to much cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There are a lot more 9z SREF members in the less phased camp than there was at 21z. I'm inclined to side with the EURO. smart man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There are a lot more 9z SREF members in the less phased camp then there was at 21z. I'm inclined to side with the EURO. when the euro gets fixated on a solution...it usually ends up scoring the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Kind of depressing looking at hour 78 on the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sadly the truth. I think this time the problem is there is to much cold air. I thinks its the banana high that wont let the storm cut harder toward the eastern lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 smart man Blindfolded monkey could have made that choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Deja Vu winter 2010/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Kind of depressing looking at hour 78 on the nam.. Its like a magnet...if your snow lover in the coastal NE your in heaven with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I thinks its the banana high that wont let the storm cut harder toward the eastern lakes. The main problem is that everything at H5 is happening too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I thinks its the banana high that wont let the storm cut harder toward the eastern lakes. Just weird how yesterday temp dropped to 10f, now it's 35 and rain. This storm was not all that impressive, but it managed to pull in a bunch of warm air aloft. Next system, fairly strong, never phases, to much cold air, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Anyways, off to work.. TCIAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just weird how yesterday temp dropped to 10f, now it's 35 and rain. This storm was not all that impressive, but it managed to pull in a bunch of warm air aloft. Next system, fairly strong, never phases, to much cold air, etc.. It has been amazing how these storms wont cut more, but thats just the way it is. I still think we can squeeze out a whopping 2 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who's saying that? He's disappointed because of the lack of a "big storm" so far this winter, and I share his sentiments. Who's saying that? Ajdos, to whom I replied. He has done it every single event this winter, sometimes hes right, sometimes hes wrong. As for a "big" storm, weve had a 6" storm, and the potential for this event being 6"+ here seemed minimal at best, its potential this far north was mostly a nice several inch snow. (The potential for Jan 25-26 is another story). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow for new england...again. This would be like their third blizzard in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You seem to be stuck in 2007-08. How many 6"+ storms have rolled through yby so far this winter? Over here, there have been none. However, I can sure remember the models depicting several of them 5 days out. 5 days ago today is a good example. I admire your optimism Josh but sometimes it borders on delusion. Umm...there has been 1 imby, pretty much everyone in SE MI have had one (the screw areas Dec 12th were the jackpot Jan 11th). And stuck in 2007-08? Im not talking about NW trending (that was 07-08), Im talking about the models struggling until a system is sampled. The NWS discos talk about it all the time. Oh, and thanks for calling me delusional, imo delusional was thinking you wouldnt get to 30" with 4 months of snow left. Guess "delusional" is a relative term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow for new england...again. This would be like their third blizzard in 2 weeks. Seasonal trends, FTL. I have to admit it stings a little considering their big year last season and la nina climo. At least you'll salvage 3-5". Blindfolded monkey could have made that choice. I made it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 nam gives cmh .61 not buying until i get a concurring second opinion from the good dr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Seasonal trends, FTL. I have to admit it stings a little considering their big year last season and la nina climo. At least you'll salvage 3-5". i thought they were relatively screwed last year with misses to their south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who's saying that? He's disappointed because of the lack of a "big storm" so far this winter, and I share his sentiments. +1000!!! Like I said, some people couldn't give a rat's arse about snoncover if the winter's dry or lacking a big storm, and some people couldn't give a rat's arse about a big storm or dry weather if they have persistent snowcover. It's perfectly ok to be frustrated about the lack of a big storm or a dry winter just as it's perfectly ok to be frustrated with a winter that has awful snowcover. Different strokes for different folks. I'm honestly don't understand why we have to go through this same drill everyday around here. If you disagree with a person and have nothing rasonable to say, then ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who's saying that? Ajdos, to whom I replied. He has done it every single event this winter, sometimes hes right, sometimes hes wrong. As for a "big" storm, weve had a 6" storm, and the potential for this event being 6"+ here seemed minimal at best, its potential this far north was mostly a nice several inch snow. (The potential for Jan 25-26 is another story). He said this winter was a "disaster" because there hasn't been a big storm? I must have missed that. The problem is not all on this board are satisfied with just persistent snowcover and nickel and dime events. Being one in that cohort, I don't think there's anything wrong with getting a little peeved at the fact that there's been a dearth of large synoptic snowfall for more than 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Umm...there has been 1 imby, pretty much everyone in SE MI have had one (the screw areas Dec 12th were the jackpot Jan 11th). And stuck in 2007-08? Im not talking about NW trending (that was 07-08), Im talking about the models struggling until a system is sampled. The NWS discos talk about it all the time. Oh, and thanks for calling me delusional, imo delusional was thinking you wouldnt get to 30" with 4 months of snow left. Guess "delusional" is a relative term. The last true warning criteria storm our region had was December 19, 2008 (that's a fact). The rest were borderline (exactly 6" in exactly 8 hours) and the warning amounts were in isolated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 +1000!!! Like I said, some people couldn't give a rat's arse about snocover if the winter's dry or lacking a big storm, and some people couldn't give a rat's arse about a big storm or dry weather if they have persistent snowcover. It's perfectly ok to be frustrated about the lack of a big storm or a dry winter just as it's perfectly ok to be frustrated with a winter that has awful snowcover. Different strokes for different folks. I'm honeslty don't understand why we have to go through this same drill everyday around here. If you disagree with a person and have nothing rasonable to say, then ignore them. personally i'd take a 12"er followed by 65-70 followed by a 12"er followed by 65-70 etc. Snowpack is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Umm...there has been 1 imby, pretty much everyone in SE MI have had one (the screw areas Dec 12th were the jackpot Jan 11th). And stuck in 2007-08? Im not talking about NW trending (that was 07-08), Im talking about the models struggling until a system is sampled. The NWS discos talk about it all the time. Oh, and thanks for calling me delusional, imo delusional was thinking you wouldnt get to 30" with 4 months of snow left. Guess "delusional" is a relative term. Hey, I'm not immune from it either (from the pessimistic side of spectrum more often), as you've pointed out. It's something inherent among weenies. Don't go interpret that post as a personal attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Who's saying that? He's disappointed because of the lack of a "big storm" so far this winter, and I share his sentiments. he got room in that club? Nickles and dimes here...mostly nickles. Finally have a quarter in our sights but it's looking a bit tenuous. One thing about winters like this around here. If we continue to get nickled and dimed thru feb, i bet we dont escape the season without another march/april blockbuster. CMH loves those late winter/early spring big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The last true warning criteria storm our region had was December 19, 2008 (that's a fact). The rest were borderline (exactly 6" in exactly 8 hours) and the warning amounts were in isolated spots. You're as bad as the mid atlantic weenies. Face it, Detroit just doesn't get giant snowstorms on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 personally i'd take a 12"er followed by 65-70 followed by a 12"er followed by 65-70 etc. Snowpack is boring. I agree. Areas in the NE that got nothing last year ( NYC and northward) are getting it this year. Two storms have dropped 40-50inches in western Mass and around 35 in the NYC area. Sure they warm up quickly and the snow melts but the same thing happens here, just to a lesser extent. I'll take big storms over snowcover. Sooner rather than later I hope we get out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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