ukrocks Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM is very similar to the 00Z at 54 hours. Looking like it could be another big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM is very similar to the 00Z at 54 hours. Looking like it could be another big hit. It is less amplified with the northern wave--it won't be the pipedream solution like the 0Z was--but it will still be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 through 60 precip wise looks about the same if not a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the heaviest precip is further south this run! Correct me if I'm wrong Baroc. Nice hit for me, might start out as some rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 shows only a glancing blow for me still though 2-4". Could change though in a heartbeat, like the 12nam yesterday (gave me a foot lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM is definitely stronger this run. Which expanded the heavier precips further south. Love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Heaviest snow did appear to shift south a bit but still a really good hit for most of IN/OH/KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 shows a great hit for you ukrocks but probably slightly overdone, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the heaviest precip is further south this run! Correct me if I'm wrong Baroc. Nice hit for me, might start out as some rain though. A tad bit yeah--probably more realistic than the amped 0z NAM. QPF is probably a tad high too, but it has the idea since the GOM will be in play here. NAM verbatim would start as rain then transition quickly to heavy wet snow for that area. Geez are region is huge! Sorry ukrocks I didn't know exactly where you were and had to do a googlemaps. I don't know where half our region members are--and I am not too familiar with that region of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks terrible for here though. Maybe 1" this run. Farther north at the start. It's the NAM though and would have a different solution every hour if it were run hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM is definitely stronger this run. Which expanded the heavier precips further south. Love this run. Actually i think its a tad weaker but QPF didn't change much except to shift south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What did the ecm ensembles show angry? And yea nam went south. 6z Nam looks like the gfs for central ohio now. Nothing major basically. Garden variety 3 - 5" snowfall.. I'm more excited for the 12z runs. It'll be onshore so we should start getting it narrowed down by 12z and the likely track etc by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 0z 6z nam pretty big difference in qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What did the ecm ensembles show angry? And yea nam went south. 6z Nam looks like the gfs for central ohio now. Nothing major basically. Garden variety 3 - 5" snowfall.. I'm more excited for the 12z runs. It'll be onshore so we should start getting it narrowed down by 12z and the likely track etc by 0z. Won't be onshore until tomorrow night and even then maybe partially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 A tad bit yeah--probably more realistic than the amped 0z NAM. QPF is probably a tad high too, but it has the idea since the GOM will be in play here. NAM verbatim would start as rain then transition quickly to heavy wet snow for that area. Geez are region is huge! Sorry ukrocks I didn't know exactly where you were and had to do a googlemaps. I don't know where half our region members are--and I am not too familiar with that region of the US. Yeah our region is huge. I'm about 50 miles south of Beau. Just not many posters from mine and Beau's region. I also reside in Louisville during breaks. But I agree with the quick transition if the NAM was taken verbatim. However a lot of the other models have precip type issue for us so I'm not too worried about it. Will be fun to track later on today,. But I'm off too bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 from yesterdays 12z to this 06z run 60hr qpf through friday the 21st 00z (drier and farther north each run for my area) Edit: Looks like the NWS out of Omaha is basically thowing out the 06z nam and going with gfs/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 What did the ecm ensembles show angry? And yea nam went south. 6z Nam looks like the gfs for central ohio now. Nothing major basically. Garden variety 3 - 5" snowfall.. I'm more excited for the 12z runs. It'll be onshore so we should start getting it narrowed down by 12z and the likely track etc by 0z. 6z NAM is still stronger and wetter than the GFS which is shown by the QPF map you posted. It would be 5+ for most of IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 6z NAM is still stronger and wetter than the GFS which is shown by the QPF map you posted. It would be 5+ for most of IN/OH. I don't get overly excited about the 6z runs either way. They normally revert back to the 0z run at 12z anyways or very similar. But it's 6z so I don't worry much about em. Bout bedtime for me fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think I'm cheering for an upset here. "Extended" NAM/GEM vs GFS/Euro. Not looking good. This is similar to a 16-1...maybe 15-2 matchup in the NCAA tourney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow...so far it looks like Dr. No may lead the way. Clearly there was a weakening and southern shift on the 6z nam.....the 6z gfs....and even the 6z rgem is weaker at 48. trend is for the northern branch to outrun the southern branch....morphing into a glorified cold frontal passage. 6z gfs ensembles are split between really weak and a little weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How much for Philly...lol But seriously, this still looks like a decent snow for us, 3" - 5" which would be the biggest snow here so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 fwiw, jb's thoughts this morning. 100 miles either side of that axis is 3-6 (locally 8). (pittsburg KS to pittsburgh PA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol there hasnt been one single event this winter where there wasnt tons of panic or tons of "it doesnt look good" days out. Todays 6z runs dont worry me, and im on the northern fringe as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol there hasnt been one single event this winter where there wasnt tons of panic or tons of "it doesnt look good" days out. Todays 6z runs dont worry me, and im on the northern fringe as it is. There is always next storm, I mean winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think I am going to ignore this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol there hasnt been one single event this winter where there wasnt tons of panic or tons of "it doesnt look good" days out. Todays 6z runs dont worry me, and im on the northern fringe as it is. i need something better than anecdote..... (you got roab, energy not on shore, model bias....anything?) heck even the 6z ukmet is noticeably weaker and southeast at 60 hrs vs. 00z. And those uk middle runs rarely indicated any changes. So the models must be sniffing out something fugly....or hopefully just sniffing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There is always next storm, I mean winter. Yep, nothing like writing off a storm before its onshore. So far this winter SE MI has seen normal snowfall and above normal snowcover...yep, such a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i need something better than anecdote..... (you got roab, energy not on shore, model bias....anything?) heck even the 6z ukmet is noticeably weaker and southeast at 60 hrs vs. 00z. And those uk middle runs rarely indicated any changes. So the models must be sniffing out something fugly....or hopefully just sniffing something. Well, the models have been a MESS this winter for the most part. Best anecdote I can give you...the models frequently weaken or even lose a storm completely 3-5 days out, only to bring it back once it gets at least partially sampled onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think I am going to ignore this one.... Probably for the best, no sense getting worked up over a storm you have no shot at. Also, 12z NAM does not look to offer any consolation to those on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Once again it looks like to me that left over energy from yet another EC storm is squashing this thing to the south, which is preventing an earlier phase. I think it would have gone well more NE if there wasn't a leftover mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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