Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 have been gone all day and just got home so trying to catch up now on the new runs..0z NAM would be a few inches or so here with the GFS further south, still have to look at the new GGEM. either way, gotta love this pattern having system after system after system to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The NAM/GGEM are probably pretty close to the best scenario for you. If the trough went negative tilt farther west, well, the whole be careful what you wish for thing. c'mon i'm not a newbie weenie, (I'm a veteran weenie), i've been following this stuff for close to a dozen years. Do you honestly think the thought of this thing winding up and crossing over western ohio hasn't entered my mind? i've seen that song play out more times then i care to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Beautiful: GVSU http://148.61.142.228/view/index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I would think the App Mts are way too small to have any major effect on the weather patterns or synoptic scale system...nothing like the Sierra or the Rockies. I think they do. I once saw a map of climatologically favored storm tracks and there was a minimum over the Apps. Not that it can't happen, and crossing the Apps is one thing, but to get a storm to ride up the length takes some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dschreib Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 STL gets something like 0.60-0.90" liquid on the GGEM. lol, Friv is going to sleep well tonight. Haha. I just said the same thing in our local chat room. I think my exact words were, "Friv's going to go nuts when he sees the GGEM." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think they do. I once saw a map of climatologically favored storm tracks and there was a minimum over the Apps. Not that it can't happen, and crossing the Apps is one thing, but to get a storm to ride up the length takes some work. Its funny as I typed that quote I did some research and dug this up... You will never see an low pressure system ride up the spine of the Apps. Low pressure system, like many physical things in this world, will always take the past of least resistance when traveling northward. Going up the APPS is not a path of least resistance, that's why you will never see a low go up the apps. (It also has to do with laws from Dynamic Meteorology that I'm not gong to go into -- Lots of Math)What dictates whether a storm will go up west of apps, east of the apps, or jump from the western apps to the coast has to do with the position of mid level trough (500mb or H5) It's all about where that trough goes negative and if it's moving towards the east. If the H5 trough goes negative well west of the apps, you'll have a storm system that will track up west of the mountains. If you have a mid level trough that's got a strong vort max with it, have a neutral tilt while crossing the apps, and the take on a negative after it crosses, you'll see a low track up west of the apps, the xfer it's energy to a coastal low, and the primary low will start to fill. Finally, sometimes you wont have any low on the west side of the apps, and you'll have a low form on the east coast of the US due to an h5 trough with some tilt to it. In answer to your second question...yes it does! Ocean temperatures are often times several degress warmer than the land. This will cause a tight temp gradient between the land and the sea, and you'll have converging winds in this area. Once the mid level trough moves over the area where the temp gradient is greatest a low will start to form in that general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its funny as I typed that quote I did some research and dug this up... I think that post is a little too definitive but the general thoughts are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just had to post this one LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 IWX WRF lookin' juicy Good hit for MBY, anywhere from .4 to .6.. Just nudge it a tad north. With decent ratios, this could be a 6"-8" event... for Joliet to about Alek's neck of the woods. Also looks like some LES enhancement too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just had to post this one LOL someone had beat ya too it earlier today lol look at part 2 : LOL Half the country wiped out haha Day after tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You're the me of 1 month ago. He needs to give 5 posters $20 to turn his luck around...especially since I missed out on your giveaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good hit for MBY, anywhere from .4 to .6.. Just nudge it a tad north. With decent ratios, this could be a 6"-8" event... for Joliet to about Alek's neck of the woods. Also looks like some LES enhancement too... But about half of that is tainted by tonight/tomorrow's action. FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 someone had beat ya too it earlier today lol LOL, looks insane. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 936 superbomb out in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good hit for MBY, anywhere from .4 to .6.. Just nudge it a tad north. With decent ratios, this could be a 6"-8" event... for Joliet to about Alek's neck of the woods. Also looks like some LES enhancement too... I'm assuming models are catching up with a secondary low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 936 superbomb out in the Pacific. , 2012 is almost here :Dlol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 936 superbomb out in the Pacific. Jesus.. How would you like to see that on land meeting with arctic air lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro has started. Out to 36. Details forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 LOL, looks insane. LOL yea, i edited my post, go look lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The GEM is awesome..Just need KING Euro to get on board. anyone have ukmet QPF maps for all the QPF and not just 6 hour intervals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm assuming models are catching up with a secondary low? ?? This is either going to be a nicely phased system or a strung out p.o.s. unless I'm mistaken I don't think a secondary low is gonna come into play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Less amplified through 42. through 48 it is no longer holding energy back like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eamp Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM bufkit KCMH: KZZV(Zanesville) It looks like this table is taking 24 snow measurements a day and then adding them together. Yikes! This is not how snow totals are measured (no more than 4 times a day). See this page why this results in erroneously high snow totals values: http://www.meteor.ia...compaction.html If you use the Bufkit snow accumulation display of the 00z NAM it shows lower snow totals (see the white plot below. KCHM 6.7" KZZV 8.2 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It looks like this table is taking 24 snow measurements a day and then adding them together. Yikes! This is not how snow totals are measured (no more than 4 times a day). See this page why this results in erroneously high snow totals values: http://www.meteor.ia...compaction.html If you use the Bufkit snow accumulation display of the 00z NAM it shows lower snow totals (see the white plot below. KCHM 6.7" KZZV 8.2 " the only difference is you dont have ratios clicked on your program. Click on the snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro siding with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Tombo: through hr 60, same theme, not holding the energy back and about the same amplification as the 12z or maybe slightly less amplfied...hr 60 has lgt to mod precip from tx to indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 great, sounds like .30 or so..hopefully it can crack .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 take it from 60 chicago, he's onto the EC now.. Says its a little more amplified than 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 actually the EURO is a step in the right direction pertaining the the energy being held back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 In the end, not a whole lot different from the 12z run. Although maybe a bit skimpier on QPF, especially on the northern fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.