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January 19-21 MW/GL/OV Storm Potential


snowlover2

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It's very strange that its better phased this run but the actual low is weaker (or rather slower to bomb out).

B_I, could you explain what happened this run?

I refuse to look at those nasty black and white maps lol, so I haven't looked yet. I typically wait until the maps are out on Ewall because that is my preferred method with the GFS/CMC. I will have to wait and comment once I can evaluate--but it could be a number of factors including less GOM influence or a weaker dynamic Tropopause or a multitude of other things.

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Is this one of those it would and should but won't track up the apps because lows usually go west or east and not specifically along? In this case the low is forced to more easterly because of the mountains. Or am I completely off.

Thought your were going to bed?? :D

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without the h5 closing off it doesn't really capture the low and that's probably why the ggem slingshots it east vs taking further north...just a guess.

The NAM/GGEM are probably pretty close to the best scenario for you. If the trough went negative tilt farther west, well, the whole be careful what you wish for thing.

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Is this one of those it would and should but won't track up the apps because lows usually go west or east and not specifically along? In this case the low is forced to more easterly because of the mountains. Or am I completely off.

I would think the App Mts are way too small to have any major effect on the weather patterns or synoptic scale system...nothing like the Sierra or the Rockies.

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