snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Just need that trough to go negative earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Just need that trough to go negative earlier: There is certainly a potential it could, in this situation I'd try and get through system 1 before worrying about system 2 as we are diving into a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Just need that trough to go negative earlier: I am interested to see the 12Z ensembles. Yesterday the mean was much less impressive compared to its op run with the depth of the cold surge/upper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ORD: .04 LAF .41 STL .60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Just need that trough to go negative earlier: This one might be a candidate for the "NW Trend".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am interested to see the 12Z ensembles. Yesterday the mean was much less impressive compared to its op run with the depth of the cold surge/upper trough. Amazing. I know you're talking about the EURO ensembles, but if you go take a look at the 12z GFS ensembles, it's like this storm doesn't exist. Just a dry NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 There is certainly a potential it could, in this situation I'd try and get through system 1 before worrying about system 2 as we are diving into a pattern change. Yeah, the EURO's the only model indicating this type of storm. GFS and UKIE hardly have a ripple in the flow and the GGEM, which having more of a storm, is much more progressive with its depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ORD: .04 LAF .41 STL .60 The 12z Gem, Euro, JMA, and to a lesser extent the ukmet give us a major snow event. To good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 12z Gem, Euro, JMA, and to a lesser extent the ukmet give us a major snow event. To good to be true. take the jma off that list, it actually suppresses the system off the se coast. Then there is always JB's 'opinion'. Storm goes from tx to the mid and n. atlantic...phasing over the OV' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah, the EURO's the only model indicating this type of storm. GFS and UKIE hardly have a ripple in the flow and the GGEM, which having more of a storm, is much more progressive with its depiction gfs does show a low over tx on wed...it just crushes it to nothing by the cold air. Isn't that a gfs bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 take the jma off that list, it actually suppresses the system off the se coast. Then there is always JB's 'opinion'. Storm goes from tx to the mid and n. atlantic...phasing over the OV' Don't forget I live 500 miles West of you, maybe more. the JMA drops over .35 qpf here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Don't forget I live 500 miles West of you, maybe more. the JMA drops over .35 qpf here true...i was just referring to the whole set up wrt whether it pulls a euro or gets suppressed and out. Definitely in the suppressed and out column, (with the gfs and the ukie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This one might be a candidate for the "NW Trend".. I'll take it Plenty of room to go NW and still crush us here...Just not too much I'm not super excited yet, but if only one model is going to give me snow I'd pick the Euro any day. Plus we're at like day 5-6 range which isn't terrible. When was the last time an Ohio poster started a storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'll take it Plenty of room to go NW and still crush us here...Just not too much I'm not super excited yet, but if only one model is going to give me snow I'd pick the Euro any day. Plus we're at like day 5-6 range which isn't terrible. When was the last time an Ohio poster started a storm thread? i don't get the feeling this is a candidate for a miss nw/precip issues with us. Looks to me more like an overruning event out of the southern plains to the northeast along the baroclinic zone. Biggest risk with this one is probably suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i don't get the feeling this is a candidate for a miss nw/precip issues with us. Looks to me more like an overruning event out of the southern plains to the northeast along the baroclinic zone. Biggest risk with this one is probably suppression. Joseph E Bastardi is buying the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i don't get the feeling this is a candidate for a miss nw/precip issues with us. Looks to me more like an overruning event out of the southern plains to the northeast along the baroclinic zone. Biggest risk with this one is probably suppression. The NAO is pretty much neutral going slightly negative. that is perfect. with super cold arctic air ready to roll son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Nice avatar. She's here for Falcon support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 She's here for Falcon support. Thank You your avatars are a refreshing change. Nice eyecandy and anecdote to the otherwise disturbing choice by some to use pics of strange little boys. And some think the ohio crowd is odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The lake effect snow next weekend could be very intense with that very cold air going over those warm lakes Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 330 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUR REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY BRING SNOW BACK ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SHOWED PRACTICALLY NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. BUT 12Z GEM AND EUROPEAN MODELS STILL INDICATE SNOW AROUND THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL BE THE RULE AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM HPC TEMPERATURES IN LATER PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 335 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY OFFER A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ATTM. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND WHETHER IT CAN TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE JUST GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. OPERATIONAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL..WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE USUALLY TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS TO GO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER THAN THIS...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND IF THE REGION CAN REGAIN ANOTHER SNOW COVER BY WEEKS END. FINALLY...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The lake effect snow next weekend could be very intense with that very cold air going over those warm lakes Agree? sure, but this is debateable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looks like the 18zgfs is 'sniffing it out' at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looks like the 18zgfs is 'sniffing it out' at 114 There are some subtle changes at H5 at 114 that make it seem like it's creeping towards the EURO. Trough axis slightly further west and digging a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 There are some subtle changes at H5 at 114 that make it seem like it's creeping towards the EURO. Trough axis slightly further west and digging a bit more. i like what i see on the gfs. This is usually the routine of how it finds a storm. Showing it weak at 120 as it starts to sniff it out is a perfect place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Well its back on the GFS and looks like its tapping the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If we can through this junk storm early this week we may be in some luck mid-late week for a 4+ inch snowfall to really crank the arctic air this time next week. EURO has .-15 for a low next Saturday for southern Ohio and high on Friday of near 5 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If this clipper brings down the arctic front I would assume the possibility exists for very good lake snows in the lee of Lake Michigan once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Here's the Sat. IWX take on the LES potential from this system. A DIGGING SW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND MOVE ACROSS THE GRTLKS THU...AND TO THE ERN SEABOARD FRI. SOME -SN MAY ACCOMPANY/PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY LES IN ITS WAKE AND BITTER COLD. INVERSION HEIGHTS FCST TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT AND BETTER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S REACHING THE L20S. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST E-W TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GRTLKS MAINTAINING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER LM SO ATTM APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PSBLY EVEN MORE SGFNT LES EVENT THU NGT/FRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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