Indystorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM would certainly make many of us Midwesterners happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Can someone help me out w/ understanding the timing of this? I fly back from Syracuse into CMH and due to get back at 4:50 PM on Thursday. Tough to say. Could be flight delays at that time. But I think if youre in the air you wont any trouble landing in CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS will do fine--ECM will be the one that decides. Dr NO will deliver the answer--but it does have the cards stacked against it. I don't see that S/W nosediving through the Rockies like the Euro has with a missed phase. The NAM is just all over the place from run to run. The Euro has been pretty consistent for the last 3 days around this area at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I didnt say Ohio, I said for someone, meaning someone on the board lol.. I could see some 12" lollipops if the NAM were to verify.. might be pitt....hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 30 mins until the GFS comes in and either makes everyone happy or makes them come crashing back to earth. I'd bet a pretty penny that the GFS will be more toned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why is this storm unable to go negative? Also one would think once the phase occurs it would head more NNE than ENE. Also with the nao going slightly negative and east based, it will be interesting to see how the models handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 pitt gets CRUSHED... ...poor DC I'm laughing at DC! Great run for us! Foot of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'd bet a pretty penny that the GFS will be more toned down. GFS keeps the tick-tock alive though. It is very close to exploding in CMC fashion. Look at the dprog/dt of the last 4 runs of the GFS. More amplified with the east Pac ridge and a nudge east with the western wave and darn near close to a full phase. With non-linear development like this, a tiny change can end hugely different. The dynamic tropo with this storm is epic. It needs the cyclogenetic trigger to unleash tropospheric deep cyclogenesis, and if it does--it is all over and it is apocalypse time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Tough to say. Could be flight delays at that time. But I think if youre in the air you wont any trouble landing in CMH By thus run of the NAM, what time do the first flakes fly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 might be pitt....hmmm Actually looking at the 84hr nam, the heaviest stuff is still over me there or close to it. from close to my location and east But Now we need the EURO on board. GFS gets closer to a phase with each run, so wouldnt be shocked to see a phase occur on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hRmmmmmmmm.....would have preferred that myself not impressed with the way it heads due east there at the end i dont see anything too causative of that, atlantic looks ok.....other than the orientation and positioon of the trough itself. looks as though it will swing up the coast but hopefully not off the coast i know BI has said it cant go negative in this orientation soon enough....has me concerned. That's a good point. I think the depiction of the trough, even though improved, is still too progressive to keep the storm inland. That coastal thermal gradient is too appetizing for a strengthening low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 By thus run of the NAM, what time do the first flakes fly? youd be safe.. Heavier stuff per nam would be Friday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS keeps the tick-tock alive though. It is very close to exploding in CMC fashion. Look at the dprog/dt of the last 4 runs of the GFS. More amplified with the east Pac ridge and a nudge east with the western wave and darn near close to a full phase. With non-linear development like this, a tiny change can end hugely different. The dynamic tropo with this storm is epic. It needs the cyclogenetic trigger to unleash tropospheric deep cyclogenesis, and if it does--it is all over and it is apocalypse time. so much potential here. this appears to be one of those potential storms that the models never really catch up too.......i love those, havent had one of those over here since 12/15/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For pure lols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS keeps the tick-tock alive though. It is very close to exploding in CMC fashion. Look at the dprog/dt of the last 4 runs of the GFS. More amplified with the east Pac ridge and a nudge east with the western wave and darn near close to a full phase. With non-linear development like this, a tiny change can end hugely different. The dynamic tropo with this storm is epic. It needs the cyclogenetic trigger to unleash tropospheric deep cyclogenesis, and if it does--it is all over and it is apocalypse time. I like when you talk like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Per the 00z NAM, blowing and drifting will likely be a significant issue behind the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just some raw QPF numbers from the 0z NAM taken off Earl Barker's site. Amounts could be a few hundredths off here and there BTW, so they're not 100% accurate. Regardless, some nice eye candy. STL: 0.41" JLN: 0.43" DVN: 0.31" CMI: 0.60" PIA: 0.52" ORD: 0.29" MDW: 0.34" DTW: 0.29" YYZ: 0.28" LAF: 0.58" IND: 0.59" MIE: 0.61" CMH: 0.58" DAY: 0.54" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I like when you talk like this ^^^What he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 21z SREFS mostly supportive of the NAM. Only one looks like it's north of the NAM, while a couple have that more sheared out, northern stream dominated look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So I get a good dumping of system snow Thursday afternoon and night here in Elkhart and then 12z Friday LES begins to kick in per 84 hr. NAM..Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like we might have some precip type issues here. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I like when you talk like this This is the first true non-linear positive feedback storm event in this region since the northern plains blizzard. Hence why I have headed E for more of the fun--but this storm has all sorts of potential and one of the most unique setups I have seen in a while. We need the phase though to initiate the development of the upper level cold front downward and the dynamic tropopause to do its work. Small threat this is a dud so I always temper excitement--I really hope the ECM doesn't verify because it would be a huge waste of potential. The ECM will be very interesting tonite. It has made great strides in the northern stream--but we need that western wave to eject in full. Excited for the potential though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 For pure lols Major spread the wealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just some raw QPF numbers from the 0z NAM taken off Earl Barker's site. Amounts could be a few hundredths off here and there BTW, so they're not 100% accurate. Regardless, some nice eye candy. STL: 0.41" JLN: 0.43" DVN: 0.31" CMI: 0.60" PIA: 0.52" ORD: 0.29" MDW: 0.34" DTW: 0.29" YYZ: 0.28" LAF: 0.58" IND: 0.59" MIE: 0.61" CMH: 0.58" DAY: 0.54" I'd assume if this run were to verify that ratios by chicago and detroit would be better than say dayton or indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS keeps the tick-tock alive though. It is very close to exploding in CMC fashion. Look at the dprog/dt of the last 4 runs of the GFS. More amplified with the east Pac ridge and a nudge east with the western wave and darn near close to a full phase. With non-linear development like this, a tiny change can end hugely different. true...just pure speculation on my part The dynamic tropo with this storm is epic. It needs the cyclogenetic trigger to unleash tropospheric deep cyclogenesis, and if it does--it is all over and it is apocalypse time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 so much potential here. this appears to be one of those potential storms that the models never really catch up too.......i love those, havent had one of those over here since 12/15/07. Don't you go there. I need to temper my enthusiasm a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just some raw QPF numbers from the 0z NAM taken off Earl Barker's site. Amounts could be a few hundredths off here and there BTW, so they're not 100% accurate. Regardless, some nice eye candy. STL: 0.41" JLN: 0.43" DVN: 0.31" CMI: 0.60" PIA: 0.52" ORD: 0.29" MDW: 0.34" DTW: 0.29" YYZ: 0.28" LAF: 0.58" IND: 0.59" MIE: 0.61" CMH: 0.58" DAY: 0.54" Nice. And a little more to come beyond 84. I'd lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 true...just pure speculation on my part No you are right, it won't be as amped as the 0Z NAM, but I guess I was just mentioning it is very close to getting it right and developing a full fledged cyclone and huge changes are a potential with this setup even with tiny changes in the configuration of the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Major spread the wealth. The good lord almighty knows we could use on of those right now to help tone down some of this increasing tension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just some raw QPF numbers from the 0z NAM taken off Earl Barker's site. Amounts could be a few hundredths off here and there BTW, so they're not 100% accurate. Regardless, some nice eye candy. STL: 0.41" JLN: 0.43" DVN: 0.31" CMI: 0.60" PIA: 0.52" ORD: 0.29" MDW: 0.34" DTW: 0.29" YYZ: 0.28" LAF: 0.58" IND: 0.59" MIE: 0.61" CMH: 0.58" DAY: 0.54" MIE FTW Needless to say with some good ratios, that will be a nice hit for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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