PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 WILL HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY UNTIL NEXT SET OFSYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THURSDAY. STILL LOOKING AT A SPLIT SET OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMING IN FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER ONE FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD BUT STRETCHED OUT VORTMAX WILL CROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WE`LL SEE AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. EITHER WAY...LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF EACH HAVE ROUGHLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING...WHICH WITH 10-1 RATIOS WOULD MEAN 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES...BUT A WATCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. STAY TUNED. LMK went conservative in latest AFD and took out mention of the GEM/GFS ens. solutions, and are now only hinting at something possibly bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Another improvement this run through 78. Dynamic trop is digging farther--and the phase is fuller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wheww... Its getting closer and closer to that phasing idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Imagine it a bit more phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nothing is a slam dunk but this is probably about the most confidence I've had 3 days out for several inches of snow since that one event last winter (I think it was January but can't remember for sure). Relatively good model agreement and the near certainty of above climo ratios definitely help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nothing is a slam dunk but this is probably about the most confidence I've had 3 days out for several inches of snow since that one event last winter (I think it was January but can't remember for sure). Relatively good model agreement and the near certainty of above climo ratios definitely help. Is that your prediction for LAF? Hopfeully the runs come into a bit better agreement at 00z and maybe just a tad bit wetter! I'd love to finally have 1 storm over 5-6 inches this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Is that your prediction for LAF? Hopfeully the runs come into a bit better agreement at 00z and maybe just a tad bit wetter! I'd love to finally have 1 storm over 5-6 inches this year. I'm almost ready to pencil in 3-5" or whatever for LAF and move on to the next threat, but I wouldn't be quite that presumptuous. I'm looking forward to the new runs to see what trends we can discern as far as the extent of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm almost ready to pencil in 3-5" or whatever for LAF and move on to the next threat, but I wouldn't be quite that presumptuous. I'm looking forward to the new runs to see what trends we can discern as far as the extent of phasing. 3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again. This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again. This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends. Looks like it will be mostly on shore by tomorrow night? to be sampled properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here is kind of what I am thinking, just some early thoughts. When I say "moderate", generally referring to 3-5 inches. "Heavy" referring to 5-8" Time will tell if I am even close, feel pretty confident though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again. This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends. That's the only line I disagree with. I agree that they will be benefactors, But a full phase would give most of OH over to western PA a bigger snowfall as well.. Still a lot of time to see what happens. but I agree with Hoosier, this is the most confident I've felt about a storm all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Lookin' good for you southern Midwest and Ohio Valley guys. Hopefully this thing keeps getting stronger so you guys can really get hammered. Really looks good for St. Louis through most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If this phases completely any chance at a track west of the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again. This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends. Eh, the Euro has 0.26" for LAF...factoring in decent ratios and it fits Hoosier's call of 3-5" for all intents and purposes. Though the heaviest will indeed be south and east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z GFS, NAO looks great. wonder when it will tank again..I would love to see what we had the last two months in Feb and March when more moisture gets involved as the south warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Lookin' good for you southern Midwest and Ohio Valley guys. Hopefully this thing keeps getting stronger so you guys can really get hammered. Really looks good for St. Louis through most of Ohio. Thanks Cyclone, appreciate it. You're a good sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Eh, the Euro has 0.26" for LAF...factoring in decent ratios and it fits Hoosier's call of 3-5" for all intents and purposes. Though the heaviest will indeed be south and east of here. That isn't my official call yet, although it might be soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's the only line I disagree with. I agree that they will be benefactors, But a full phase would give most of OH over to western PA a bigger snowfall as well.. Still a lot of time to see what happens. but I agree with Hoosier, this is the most confident I've felt about a storm all year. Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well--light to moderate. Semantics though--I guess I was talking the good stuff. You are right though--it would benefit the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's the only line I disagree with. I agree that they will be benefactors, But a full phase would give most of OH over to western PA a bigger snowfall as well.. Still a lot of time to see what happens. but I agree with Hoosier, this is the most confident I've felt about a storm all year. Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well although light/moderate may. I guess I was talking the good stuff-but you are right--it would benefit the whole state. I was just being pretty general in the wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well although light/moderate may. I guess I was talking the good stuff-but you are right--it would benefit the whole state. I was just being pretty general in the wording. one issue i see is the trough, even on the ggem and the nam really never gets a good neg tilt to it. That would be key in slowing down the surface low, or even getting the 500 to cut off over the ov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well although light/moderate may. I guess I was talking the good stuff-but you are right--it would benefit the whole state. I was just being pretty general in the wording. Yea I knew you were. Northern ohio would benifit a bit, but not a lot. I think central OH would see a significant benefit of a full phase, however. I would imagine 3" or so more with a full phase. Would also depend on how much moisture it can tap from the gulf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yea I knew you were. Northern ohio would benifit a bit, but not a lot. I think central OH would see a significant benefit of a full phase, however. I would imagine 3" or so more with a full phase. Would also depend on how much moisture it can tap from the gulf too. if you have to find a negative about this storm...it's the fact that it will be a fast moving system. Very quick hitter. Assuming we dont get a full on negative tilting phased monster, i'd expect the results to be similar to a really nice clipper event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 one issue i see is the trough, even on the ggem and the nam really never gets a good neg tilt to it. That would be key in slowing down the surface low, or even getting the 500 to cut off over the ov This type of storm won't go negative for a number of reasons and it won't wrap up until later--it has the wrong configuration. It will be a fast mover--but you guys can't get too greedy NAM would be close to as good as it can get. CMC too but it doesn't show the positive effects of the GOM like the NAM will in the qpf fields yet. GFS getting close but not bombing early enough--but it is making strides in the height field. In all honestly it is still about a 40/60 to 50/50 event. If Dr. No verifies with that western wave--it may be a dud and northern stream dominated, weaker, and faster. We will know, as Jomo said, rather soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not seeing a ton of changes on the NAM through 48 hours at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 00z NAM looks quite interesting thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think the NAM might try to bump north on this run. There is a slightly stronger surface low at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think the NAM might try to bump north on this run. There is a slightly stronger surface low at 48 hours. It's definitly a little bit north through 54.. Not too bad though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 54 hours...I'm sure of it now. This run is coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 54 hours...I'm sure of it now. This run is coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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