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January 19-21 MW/GL/OV Storm Potential


snowlover2

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WILL HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY UNTIL NEXT SET OF

SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THURSDAY. STILL LOOKING AT

A SPLIT SET OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM

COMING IN FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER ONE FROM THE UPPER

MS RIVER VALLEY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD BUT STRETCHED OUT

VORTMAX WILL CROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS...STILL HAVE POTENTIAL

FOR CYCLOGENESIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL HAVE AN

IMPACT ON JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WE`LL SEE AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE

AREA. EITHER WAY...LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF EACH HAVE

ROUGHLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING...WHICH

WITH 10-1 RATIOS WOULD MEAN 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE

AN ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES...BUT A

WATCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. STAY TUNED.

LMK went conservative in latest AFD and took out mention of the GEM/GFS ens. solutions, and are now only hinting at something possibly bigger.

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Nothing is a slam dunk but this is probably about the most confidence I've had 3 days out for several inches of snow since that one event last winter (I think it was January but can't remember for sure). Relatively good model agreement and the near certainty of above climo ratios definitely help.

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Nothing is a slam dunk but this is probably about the most confidence I've had 3 days out for several inches of snow since that one event last winter (I think it was January but can't remember for sure). Relatively good model agreement and the near certainty of above climo ratios definitely help.

Is that your prediction for LAF? Hopfeully the runs come into a bit better agreement at 00z and maybe just a tad bit wetter! I'd love to finally have 1 storm over 5-6 inches this year.

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Is that your prediction for LAF? Hopfeully the runs come into a bit better agreement at 00z and maybe just a tad bit wetter! I'd love to finally have 1 storm over 5-6 inches this year.

I'm almost ready to pencil in 3-5" or whatever for LAF and move on to the next threat, but I wouldn't be quite that presumptuous. I'm looking forward to the new runs to see what trends we can discern as far as the extent of phasing.

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I'm almost ready to pencil in 3-5" or whatever for LAF and move on to the next threat, but I wouldn't be quite that presumptuous. I'm looking forward to the new runs to see what trends we can discern as far as the extent of phasing.

3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again.laugh.gif

This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends.

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3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again.laugh.gif

This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends.

Looks like it will be mostly on shore by tomorrow night? to be sampled properly.

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3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again.laugh.gif

This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends.

That's the only line I disagree with. I agree that they will be benefactors, But a full phase would give most of OH over to western PA a bigger snowfall as well.. Still a lot of time to see what happens. but I agree with Hoosier, this is the most confident I've felt about a storm all year.

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3-5 is quite realistic as long as the ECM doesn't verify--the phase timing will just be too late to benefit folks in Indy/IL. Southern OH and KY would be the true benefactors--and then of course parts of SNE and up state NY--but I know some folks don't want to hear of the EC cashing in again.laugh.gif

This storm will be fun to track. 0Z guidance will be quite helpful regarding the incoming western S/W. Interested to see how Dr. No trends.

Eh, the Euro has 0.26" for LAF...factoring in decent ratios and it fits Hoosier's call of 3-5" for all intents and purposes. Though the heaviest will indeed be south and east of here.

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That's the only line I disagree with. I agree that they will be benefactors, But a full phase would give most of OH over to western PA a bigger snowfall as well.. Still a lot of time to see what happens. but I agree with Hoosier, this is the most confident I've felt about a storm all year.

Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well--light to moderate. Semantics though--I guess I was talking the good stuff. You are right though--it would benefit the whole state.

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That's the only line I disagree with. I agree that they will be benefactors, But a full phase would give most of OH over to western PA a bigger snowfall as well.. Still a lot of time to see what happens. but I agree with Hoosier, this is the most confident I've felt about a storm all year.

Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well although light/moderate may. I guess I was talking the good stuff-but you are right--it would benefit the whole state. I was just being pretty general in the wording.

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Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well although light/moderate may. I guess I was talking the good stuff-but you are right--it would benefit the whole state. I was just being pretty general in the wording.

one issue i see is the trough, even on the ggem and the nam really never gets a good neg tilt to it. That would be key in slowing down the surface low, or even getting the 500 to cut off over the ov

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Not necessarily--both CMC and NAM have full phase. The heavy stuff wouldn't make northern OH as well although light/moderate may. I guess I was talking the good stuff-but you are right--it would benefit the whole state. I was just being pretty general in the wording.

Yea I knew you were. Northern ohio would benifit a bit, but not a lot. I think central OH would see a significant benefit of a full phase, however. I would imagine 3" or so more with a full phase. Would also depend on how much moisture it can tap from the gulf too.

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Yea I knew you were. Northern ohio would benifit a bit, but not a lot. I think central OH would see a significant benefit of a full phase, however. I would imagine 3" or so more with a full phase. Would also depend on how much moisture it can tap from the gulf too.

if you have to find a negative about this storm...it's the fact that it will be a fast moving system. Very quick hitter. Assuming we dont get a full on negative tilting phased monster, i'd expect the results to be similar to a really nice clipper event here.

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one issue i see is the trough, even on the ggem and the nam really never gets a good neg tilt to it. That would be key in slowing down the surface low, or even getting the 500 to cut off over the ov

This type of storm won't go negative for a number of reasons and it won't wrap up until later--it has the wrong configuration. It will be a fast mover--but you guys can't get too greedysmile.gif NAM would be close to as good as it can get. CMC too but it doesn't show the positive effects of the GOM like the NAM will in the qpf fields yet. GFS getting close but not bombing early enough--but it is making strides in the height field. In all honestly it is still about a 40/60 to 50/50 event. If Dr. No verifies with that western wave--it may be a dud and northern stream dominated, weaker, and faster. We will know, as Jomo said, rather soon.

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