baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Stupid Euro and the 24 hr charts. Good news though, the changes comparable to the previous 12Z run are huge. Much more amplified and a much deeper cold plunge. Now we need to wait on the intermountain W wave to see if it ticks E like the GFS has been for a better phase. Verifying at 120 hrs: Verifying at 96: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I remain quite cautious right now but things look pretty decent right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 doesn't look like an outright phase is in the cards. Right now all we have is the nam and the ggem (but even it backed off a bit from 00z). I know euro has a bias to hold back energy but we're getting inside of 72hrs for the timeframe where it would show that ejecting quicker. You would also expect the ukie to pick up on it as well. In spite of that, it still looks to have potential to be our biggest hit so far this season with the overrunning. i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 PIT: .31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It's better than the 0z run. Probably of some note, but it has a kicker entering through MT at hour 90-96. It could've been a lot better but nice to see a positive baby step on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Stupid Euro and the 24 hr charts. Good news though, the changes comparable to the previous 12Z run are huge. Much more amplified and a much deeper cold plunge. Now we need to wait on the intermountain W wave to see if it ticks E like the GFS has been for a better phase. huge implications for the long range as to whether that phases or not. An all out phase would most likely bring down the motherlode of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 doesn't look like an outright phase is in the cards. Right now all we have is the nam and the ggem (but even it backed off a bit from 00z). I know euro has a bias to hold back energy but we're getting inside of 72hrs for the timeframe where it would show that ejecting quicker. You would also expect the ukie to pick up on it as well. In spite of that, it still looks to have potential to be our biggest hit so far this season with the overrunning. i'll take it. Quite honestly there is quite the potential for a phase and a strong low/potential bomb as it heads E. ECM op doesn't change that at all--and the GFS op is about 2 runs from bombing and developing a full phase based off the last 3 and the trends in the ensemble. The Dr No ensemble mean has shifted more the last 4 days than any other--so I have little confidence in its op at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Quite honestly there is quite the potential for a phase and a bomb. ECM op doesn't change that at all--and the GFS op is about 2 runs from bombing and developing a full phase based off the last 3 and the trends in the ensemble. coming from you....that's good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It could've been a lot better but nice to see a positive baby step on this run. Yep, I'll take it. Hopefully a trend for wetter is in the cards for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 PIT: .31 Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am not trying to play this up, but the potential is there. The GFS op run is much farther N and weaker than its ensembles--and the GFS op is improving run by run. As I said, it did this same thing with the last storm. The op is the white line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I am not trying to play this up, but the potential is there. The GFS op run is much farther N and weaker than its ensembles--and the GFS op is improving run by run. As I said, it did this same thing with the last storm. The op is the white line. The real only difference is the western wave--and that is the wildcard. About 50/50 down the middle with the GFS ensemble--and the Euro has some really high standard deviations in its mean meaning it has no idea what that will do either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Kab do you have the qpf for FDY and CLE? I apologize for inconvenience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jatrapp Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 anyone have the qpf for EVV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I can't believe how consistent the mesoscale models are at phasing the western wave. 09Z SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I can't believe how consistent the mesoscale models are at phasing the western wave. 09Z SREF: those don't look half bad even up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It is also worth mentioning since the breakdown of the -NAO, the mesoscale models and SREF wiped the floor clean with the global ops regarding wave amplification in the 3-4 day range. Even more amplification would have a better chance of phasing the western wave--unless it just goes too far W. ECM op is a huge outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Most of them them are derived from the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Most of them them are derived from the NAM though. The WRF-NMM (NAM) is only 20 percent of the ensembles. There is also the WRF-ARW/ETA/RSM (GFS on steroids). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Barc. you are putting on a clinic. What do you think about cold air? It seems even in a stronger system the cold air is pretty well established and deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It is also worth mentioning since the breakdown of the -NAO, the mesoscale models and SREF wiped the floor clean with the global ops regarding wave amplification in the 3-4 day range. Even more amplification would have a better chance of phasing the western wave--unless it just goes too far W. ECM op is a huge outlier here. Interesting and something i'll have to watch. It would be a nice surprise if we can continue a few more of these small adjustments with the inter mountain wave and see some rather large downstream changes towards a much more aggressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The WRF-NMM (NAM) is only 20 percent of the ensembles. There is also the WRF-ARW/ETA/RSM (GFS on steroids). Right, WRF-NMM and ARW look to make up the majority of the ensembles. Not saying they are wrong or right. However, I think it was Dodge City that noted that the NAM's upper air fields were poor from 60 hours+ out. I would actually prefer them to be right as they pump out a lot of precip over my area as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Barc. you are putting on a clinic. What do you think about cold air? It seems even in a stronger system the cold air is pretty well established and deep. YEah they go hand in hand. A strong cyclogenetic trigger (our western wave) will unleash the cold air advection and amplify the trough even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Right, WRF-NMM and ARW look to make up the majority of the ensembles. Not saying they are wrong or right. However, I think it was Dodge City that noted that the NAM's upper air fields were poor from 60 hours+ out. I would actually prefer them to be right as they pump out a lot of precip over my area as snow. Right now I am going about 40% that a very amplified solution verifies with a full phase. Still 60% that it won't happen, but the threat is increasing rapidly. We need to watch trends on the western wave and phase potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 15z SREF has shifted south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 15z SREF has shifted south and colder. Yep. Would be a scrapper here verbatim. Still looking good for STL. 3-5" seems like a solid bet for YBY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NW trend fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yep. Would be a scrapper here verbatim. Still looking good for STL. 3-5" seems like a solid bet for YBY right now. Maybe just me but I hate the SREF at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Maybe just me but I hate the SREF at this timeframe. Agreed. Too many wild individual solutions at this timeframe usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NW trend fail? It wouldn't surprise me. It's always the one time we want a NW trend that it does fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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