PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I would be more comfortable with a significant winter storm if the Euro started showing things that the GEM and GFS Ensemble is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah if i was in your shoes, id be totally meh but BI is doing a good job of keeping interest levels high although a blow through arctic front squall line type is possible and fun usually I've pretty much thrown in the towel and watching out of curiosity for future reference/learning experience. Best case scenario we see a large trend towards a more phase wound up solution, but even then i don't think it can happen soon enough to give us much more than a glancing blow. As for the artic air, pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I would be more comfortable with a significant winter storm if the Euro started showing things that the GEM and GFS Ensemble is showing. It is almost likely the ECM trends more phased this round given the way the global ECM/GFS ops have worked since the breakdown of the -NAO. But you never know--I am eager to see what the ECM dishes out this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I've pretty much thrown in the towel and watching out of curiosity for future reference/learning experience. Best case scenario we see a large trend towards a more phase wound up solution, but even then i don't think it can happen soon enough to give us much more than a glancing blow. As for the artic air, pass. yeah i was talking about a squall line, not the actual air which i also despise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has a high probability of being the biggest storm of the winter for a lot of areas. I was just catching up on this thread. When b i says this, my ears quickly perk up. Especially when he posts a thread in OT named "baroclinic instability is pessimistic". EDIT: I see Justin lurking. Hey, we've been asking about you. Haven't seen you posting lately. Hope everything is okay with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm good just a lot of family stuff that's taken me away for awhile. And I haven't had to much to get excited about lately in terms of sensible weather. I hope that will change in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Euro through 60 hours, a little farther north than the 0z run at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Remains farther north through 72. LT-MOD snow getting close to PIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like it's wanting to drop more of the storm into the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Dr. No is still going to say no based on the height field through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like it's wanting to drop more of the storm into the SW? Yes. It's a bit more amplified. 78 has LT-MOD precip from NE OK up to just west of the FWA area. Includes JLN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm good just a lot of family stuff that's taken me away for awhile. And I haven't had to much to get excited about lately in terms of sensible weather. I hope that will change in the coming weeks. Glad to hear. I understand about family issues and most definitely understand about sensible weather. We've missed your input about storms that have skirted us and hit surrounding areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yes. It's a bit more amplified. 78 has LT-MOD precip from NE OK up to just west of the FWA area. Includes JLN. How does it compare to the western wave compared to the 0Z? To me through 72 it is still far from being a good phase--but did it trend one way or the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Really liking this storms setup. Hoping it can do good things to my area. I love what the Canadian is doing and it has been quite consistent with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Euro brings down the hammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Euro brings down the hammer What the f is that? Plotting error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How does it compare to the western wave compared to the 0Z? To me through 72 it is still far from being a good phase--but did it trend one way or the other? Hard to describe off my maps, but it looks like it sends a piece out up through SE KY at 78 hours. Wasn't there on the 0z run or was farther south and weaker. But yes, as a whole, it's wide right...albeit with a more expansive/farther north initial wave. If that makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What the f is that? Plotting error? yeah there was a plotting error at Day 1 I think it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Great sounds like a .25 or so job here...but at least it is cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks pretty skunky on E-wall, i guess it could be worse for a lot of you, at least it's not hugging the gulf coast or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro looks slow to eject the piece in the SW, not that we haven't seen this show before with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Euro brings down the hammer Saved for future trolling purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro looks slow to eject the piece in the SW, not that we haven't seen this show before with the Euro. yeah still hanging a piece back at 96. It has done this off and on though like you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That doesn't really say much when many areas haven't really seen a "big" storm this season. What is your version of "big"? Just curious because its a very relative term. Detroit has seen a 6.3" and a 5.3" snowstorm this season. I would consider those "big", not "major". FWIW, going back 100 years to 1910, Detroit has officially seen 98 storms of 6" or greater. That averages 1 a winter. Of course, some could argue the big-snowstorm drought of the 1940s-1960s (the 3 decades saw a total of only 11 storms exceed 6") caused a dent in that, and a realistic average would be 1-2 storms per winter exceeding 6". The last 10 winters plus this one 2010-11: 1 so far 2009-10: 2 2008-09: 3 2007-08: 3 2006-07: 1 2005-06: 2 2004-05: 3 2003-04: 0 2002-03: 2 2001-02: 1 2000-01: 1 Basically what Im saying is, that while I certainly think we have a big, if not major, storm on the way this winter, if we dont get another one, its really just climo popping in to say hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12Z Euro...overall, wetter for everyone ORD: .06 STL: .34 PIA: .25 LAF: .26 BTL: .15 DET: .16 IND: .31 TOL: .22 SDF: .22 PAH: .16 CMH: .36 DAY: .36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks pretty skunky on E-wall, i guess it could be worse for a lot of you, at least it's not hugging the gulf coast or something. It's better than the 0z run. Probably of some note, but it has a kicker entering through MT at hour 90-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12Z Euro...overall, wetter for everyone ORD: .06 STL: .34 PIA: .25 LAF: .26 BTL: .15 DET: .16 IND: .31 TOL: .22 SDF: .22 PAH: .16 CMH: .36 DAY: .36 By no means would I not take that in a heartbeat if you could lock it now...that would be about 5 inches here. but this has potential to nearly double that QPF amount. Its time for a big one. So lets roll the dice and get on with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12Z Euro...overall, wetter for everyone ORD: .06 STL: .34 PIA: .25 LAF: .26 BTL: .15 DET: .16 IND: .31 TOL: .22 SDF: .22 PAH: .16 CMH: .36 DAY: .36 Could you please include Pitt? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice consensus on all models to put down 4+ inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12Z Euro...overall, wetter for everyone ORD: .06 STL: .34 PIA: .25 LAF: .26 BTL: .15 DET: .16 IND: .31 TOL: .22 SDF: .22 PAH: .16 CMH: .36 DAY: .36 Thanks. Pretty solid agreement on 0.25" or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.