Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a carbon copy of the 0z out this way. we need this to go negative sooner.... but this would be par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://www.americanw...adelphia-metro/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 we need this to go negative sooner.... this...plus even sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://www.americanw...adelphia-metro/ 204 users online on a Monday morning. Gotta admire their tenacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM finally wakes up and joins the other models. This continues to look like a MCI-JLN-STL-IND-CMH (and points south of that line) storm. I don't think this is a total whiff for us and accumulating snow looks likely imo. Don't know how much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GEM is still suppression city, gives the STL area a nice 4-5 inch event...but overall is suppressed threw 72, we will see how it shapes out. You sitting in the cat bird's seat right now. Probably 0.20-0.40" QPF for LAF with the 12z GGEM...right around what the 12z NAM and GFS advertised. Not the worst of agreement at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You sitting in the cat bird's seat right now. Probably 0.20-0.40" QPF for LAF with the 12z GGEM...right around what the 12z NAM and GFS advertised. Not the worst of agreement at the moment. should see pretty decent ratios down your way on the northern edge of the good stuff. 3-6" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I don't think this is a total whiff for us and accumulating snow looks likely imo. Don't know how much yet. You're right, it doesn't look like a total whiff right now. I was more so alluding to the heavier swath with that line. Actually decent agreement so far this morning of somewhere around 0.25" QPF for us...give or take a few 0.1's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This looks like a widespread 3-6, 4-8 snowfall with some pretty nice DGZ growth and ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Would I be correct in saying that the less amplified this first storm is in the NE the better chance we have of a more north phasing next storm. We have seen a lot of these EC storms bring down a lot of cold air reinforce the block which supresses the next storm. Is the NAO going negative after this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 should see pretty decent ratios down your way on the northern edge of the good stuff. 3-6" maybe? Yeah ratios could be good, we'll see on that one though. I'm thinking more 2-5" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 204 users online on a Monday morning. Gotta admire their tenacity. 12z GFS ensemble mean looks pretty sweet out east, hopefully we see it pull back west to give the eastern part of our region some more love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has a high probability of being the biggest storm of the winter for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has a high probability of being the biggest storm of the winter for a lot of areas. Level of excitement growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has a high probability of being the biggest storm of the winter for a lot of areas. You saying this, has me buckling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah ratios could be good, we'll see on that one though. I'm thinking more 2-5" right now. Just glancing, it looks like the DGZ starts out fairly high but then grows and lowers throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Haven't looked into it much but if this is another phasing storm I wouldn't hold your breath if you are in michigan ohio or indiana. We are 0-5 it seems in phasing. While the percentage out east hasnt been good either they have had a few and this looks another one for those east of ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has a high probability of being the biggest storm of the winter for a lot of areas. When you say it, I want to believe. I've noticed we're in a peak period of +PNA, which I would think would help the downstream amplification prospects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has a high probability of being the biggest storm of the winter for a lot of areas. That doesn't really say much when many areas haven't really seen a "big" storm this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That doesn't really say much when many areas haven't really seen a "big" storm this season. Don't over-think it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You saying this, has me buckling up. Haven't looked into it much but if this is another phasing storm I wouldn't hold your breath if you are in michigan ohio or indiana. We are 0-5 it seems in phasing. While the percentage out east hasnt been good either they have had a few and this looks another one for those east of ohio. When you say it, I want to believe. I've noticed we're in a peak period of +PNA, which I would think would help the downstream amplification prospects General thoughts are the NAM/CMC are not out to lunch with this threat, and the GFS not being quite there means little at this juncture. I have seen highly positive trends in the GFS op height fields, and it has continued to make slow trends towards the better phased solutions. It looks eerily similar to the last storm threat in terms of the way the GFS improved its height field amplification run-by-run. ECMWF will help, but I would be shocked if it doesn't trend towards a better phase based on the latest guidance and the way they handle the secondary wave passing through the intermountain W. GFS ensemble trend is also positive, and like the last storm, was a step ahead of the op. As Canuck also mentions--there is nothing that will be supressing the heck out of this storm--it really just depends on the quality and timing of the phase. I also wouldn't toss the 12Z NAM--and it has the innate ability to more positively model rapid feedback development--and it has very impressive GOM fetch in the low levels. All these are good things thus far. I should have tempered my wording and said this has high probability of being the biggest storm threat for a lot of areas based on the latest developments--not necessarily a high probability of happening--just yet. Still good signs for folks looking for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow look at this radar. Three different pieces of energy. Wish they could magically merge together. NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 That doesn't really say much when many areas haven't really seen a "big" storm this season. Add your location plz. I-74 or so to DTW and points south and east sure looks good for a quality event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Add your location plz. I-74 or so to DTW and points south and east sure looks good for a quality event. I-74 doesn't go to Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Add your location plz. I-74 or so to DTW and points south and east sure looks good for a quality event. I'm going to wait another day or two before I get excited about a storm around here. As of now (and like always) I'm expecting the worst to happen. EDIT: My location is Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I-74 doesn't go to Detroit Now it does., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Now it does., Would be nice, that way i could use it to storm chase across Northern Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I-74 doesn't go to Detroit I was implying I74 or so back my way, or PIA to DTW and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This has a high probability of being the biggest storm of the winter for a lot of areas. fanning the flames nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 this...plus even sooner yeah if i was in your shoes, id be totally meh but BI is doing a good job of keeping interest levels high although a blow through arctic front squall line type is possible and fun usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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