Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It wasn't widespread 20-30". Us FTW. Read closer grasshopper. I said 20-30 STATEWIDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It's also tough to exactly pinpoint where the great banding will set up. It set up this time around just north and northwest of the DS and again out by the Berks. I would have probably approached 20"+ and maybe 25" if it weren't for my temp. I think we said widespread 12-20" which is what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 You have to have reason to find a storm to slow down to get that type of total in a large area....there wasn't a huge reason for this to slow down unless it got captured by the ULL perfectly. I explained it in my thread "what caused Jan 12 to be a HECS?" after the storm. Models will often try and show it happening (see Oct 29 where it tried to capture it before exiting stage right and slam E MA...never happened) but it doesn't work out. We often see model qpf overdone in coastals...esp by mesoscale models. Its a known bias. So its hard to think we will see 20-30" every time a model puts out 2 inches of qpf, because we've seen it many times before and it doesn't happen. I think we said in the thread "if this can turn into something like Dec 9, 2005 except slow it down 12 hours, then we might see a HECS"...but there wasn't a heck of a lot of reason to believe it would slow down like that as it neared the Cape. It was definitely a perfect capture of the sfc low at the right time in an otherwise fairly progressive system. Absolute perfection, storm I drew up in mind and on paper since I was a kid. I am a huge weenie and the satiation from that intense perfect position for me storm was incredible. Loved how it just would not die either. I actually laid in a pile for a half hour just looking around taking it all in. Perhaps at my age I never see that combo again, I had to take it all in and embed that feeling and picture in my mind permanently. I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Read closer grasshopper. I said 20-30 STATEWIDE I read your post "widespread 20-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'll never forget Scooter telling me it wouldn't be widespread and Will agreed. Folks only remember the bad calls..never the good Kevin, read this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 I read your post "widespread 20-30". He was referring the post before that where he said statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Don't forget....a drift here and a tilt of the snow stick there..and he had 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 He was referring the post before that where he said statewide. Right, I saw the widespread post which appeared to be region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Don't forget....a drift here and a tilt of the snow stick there..and he had 25". Not fair this time though, Stafford had similar and so did the guy from his town that posts here.No denying his totals on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Not fair this time though, Stafford had similar and so did the guy from his town that posts here. No denying his totals on this one. I was kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 CT was ground zero for those 6 weeks between KUs, Norluns, Windex and wind it was the most epic stretch I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 CT was ground zero for those 6 weeks between KUs, Norluns, Windex and wind it was the most epic stretch I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 CT was ground zero for those 6 weeks between KUs, Norluns, Windex and wind it was the most epic stretch I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 The storm definitely outdid my expectations from before. I was expecting like 12-20 as Scooter said...but there were def more 20"+ than I thought and it was because of what I outlined in my post mortem thread for that storm. It was a tough forecast because you had to wonder whether to believe that 6-8 hour capture would happen. The Euro didn't show it happening...and while we said the non-hydrostatic models like the NAM/SREF would probably do better in this storm, that extra capture was still a bit tough to actually believe. I believed the closer track of the NAM but it can often overdo some of that phasing/capturing stuff...but it didn't this time. It actually nailed it. I remember the convo leading up to this storm and talking about the non-hydrostatic models likely being more useful in this storm because of the obscene amount of convection going on in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 CT was ground zero for those 6 weeks between KUs, Norluns, Windex and wind it was the most epic stretch I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I def. under measured that storm as I somehow came in with 17.0"...so my winter total of 88.7 might have actually been slightly over 90". 17.0 was the last measurement I took but it was depth and not in the best spot...Will had 21" and the storm wasn't that dependent on elevation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I def. under measured that storm as I somehow came in with 17.0"...so my winter total of 88.7 might have actually been slightly over 90". 17.0 was the last measurement I took but it was depth and not in the best spot...Will had 21" and the storm wasn't that dependent on elevation... ORH airport had 21", I didn't. I had 19.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 ORH airport had 21", I didn't. I had 19.7" Oh ok. In the PNS report I believe they included someone's report of 21"...rather then my report of 17". I think the reality may be somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Oh ok. In the PNS report I believe they included someone's report of 21"...rather then my report of 17". I think the reality may be somewhere in between. It could have been either 19" or 22"...I don't know. There was enough wind to make it tough to measure. Its basically a ballpark guess at that point. I don't think it was 17" though...that seems too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 It could have been either 19" or 22"...I don't know. There was enough wind to make it tough to measure. Its basically a ballpark guess at that point. I don't think it was 17" though...that seems too low. I was comfortable with my report when the COOPs near and around me as well as Garth were all within a inch of each other. 21 of the best snow ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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