LakeEffectKing Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The land-ocean table shows +0.48°C for November: http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts+dSST.txt Are you using a different source for GISS? I just want to make sure that I have the most up-to-date link. Don, I have a very slightly different address http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt Do you know why they are different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 NCDC is much more similar to GISS than it is too HadCRUT. smaller grid boxes is not better at all. The only thing that matters is the number of stations being used, which GISS has just as many as the others. And your last statement is completely false. HadCRUT+UAH infilling gives more warming than GISS, and is the warmest possible source of all. All of the differences between GISS and HadCRUT over the last 14 years have been due to differences in the SST data used and the fact that HadCRUT leaves the arctic blank, while GISS forms a reasonably accurate approximation. 1) Of course NCDC is more similar to GISS than HADCRUT3, because it includes the Arctic while HADCRUT3 chuses not to extrapolate without data, The Arctic has warmed significantly so it will alter the global trend, but with same coverage + smaller extrapolations uncertainty is reduced over GISS which for the globe outside the Arctic it is slightly cooler than GISS. Since NCDC is also more in line with the rest of the datasets it might be a safer bet, GISS is the warm outlier among the mainstream sources so the datasource that agrees with the others, contains less extrapolation, and frankly (no offense) isn't run by an activist, just gives me a more secure feeling. Feel free to disagree but I never have and never will use GISS for surface reference. 2) No, HADCRUT3 outside the Arctic is cooler than GISS, as is NCDC, except GISS has larger areas without data over the global than HADCRUT3. I don't mind either using NCDC or HADCRUT3 w/ UAH infilling over the poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Don, I have a very slightly different address http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts+dSST.txt Do you know why they are different? LEK, That's the version 2 link. That link has been replaced with version 3. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ The above link has some commentary on the change, but technical details are not yet available as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Thanks Don! Hope your holidays are joyous ones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Thanks Don! Hope your holidays are joyous ones! Thank you, LEK. I wish your family and you a great holiday season, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Channel 5 above finally pulled out of the hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Channel 5 above finally pulled out of the hole. Might not be enough to avoid a negative departure. Seeing the strong vortexes at both poles (less net cloudiness between 30N and 30S) I am surprised at how cold we've run without a potent La Nina but perhaps the cooling AMO has a role in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Might not be enough to avoid a negative departure. Seeing the strong vortexes at both poles (less net cloudiness between 30N and 30S) I am surprised at how cold we've run without a potent La Nina but perhaps the cooling AMO has a role in it. Oh my God, isn't it amazing how cold this year has been. The ice age approaches! The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January – November period was 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), making it the 11th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.09°C (0.16°F). NCDC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Oh my God, isn't it amazing how cold this year has been. The ice age approaches! NCDC Never said it was cold, obviously the globe is very warm right now and will be warm for several more years, but I would have expected more warmth with the weaker ENSO and strong vortexes on both poles, in the SH specifically. Also, the warmer atmosphere during these past 2 Ninas is/was favored by the geomag theory. Geomag theory also brings about big change in 2012. AMO goes negative, and the cooling begins shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Never said it was cold, obviously the globe is very warm right now and will be warm for several more years, but I would have expected more warmth with the weaker ENSO and strong vortexes on both poles, in the SH specifically. Also, the warmer atmosphere during these past 2 Ninas is/was favored by the geomag theory. Geomag theory also brings about big change in 2012. AMO goes negative, and the cooling begins shortly thereafter. People here are not really interested in your latest pet theory. You did say it is cold, for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 People here are not really interested in your latest pet theory. You did say it is cold, for obvious reasons. lol implied *relativity* rusty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vergent Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Has anyone else noticed that the people with the most posts have the least to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Has anyone else noticed that the people with the most posts have the least to say? No.. Posts like yours above do not require much response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Might not be enough to avoid a negative departure. Seeing the strong vortexes at both poles (less net cloudiness between 30N and 30S) I am surprised at how cold we've run without a potent La Nina but perhaps the cooling AMO has a role in it. December 2010 on UAH had a .18 anomaly. I highly doubt even with the pretty large cool period that UAH will be negative for December with Channel 5 and 6 both going up so sharply. Channel 5 is now 3rd warmest on this date in the data set. Of course they are all bunched together. I would assume the surface will be warmer than channel 5. So I would probably expect a .05 to .12 anomaly for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 December 2010 on UAH had a .18 anomaly. I highly doubt even with the pretty large cool period that UAH will be negative for December with Channel 5 and 6 both going up so sharply. Channel 5 is now 3rd warmest on this date in the data set. Of course they are all bunched together. I would assume the surface will be warmer than channel 5. So I would probably expect a .05 to .12 anomaly for the month Don't forget UAH is being adjusted down with the new drift correction, so unless the rebound keeps up it'll be hard to keep the positive anom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Don't forget UAH is being adjusted down with the new drift correction, so unless the rebound keeps up it'll be hard to keep the positive anom. What is the cut-off date for the correction? Drift is continuous. Is the correction graduated or is it a step like one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 What is the cut-off date for the correction? Drift is continuous. Is the correction graduated or is it a step like one? It's more step like, from 2008 onward the spurious warming signal has been uncovered. AMSU AQUAs spurious warming after 2008 is caused by a deteriorating radiometer not orbital drift. But through analysis when the excess warming was picked up right away the clear increase in "noise" on the AQUA satellite signals it's deterioration, so the new drift formula is to calibate with more weighting of other satellites knowing AQUA is on it's last leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 December 2010 on UAH had a .18 anomaly. I highly doubt even with the pretty large cool period that UAH will be negative for December with Channel 5 and 6 both going up so sharply. Channel 5 is now 3rd warmest on this date in the data set. Of course they are all bunched together. I would assume the surface will be warmer than channel 5. So I would probably expect a .05 to .12 anomaly for the month Certainly not always the case...just check the end of 2007 compared to 2008...'07 was considerably warmer on discover but came in a lot colder on the actual monthlies. Though I do agree that the large spike in the final 10 days of the month should easily keep UAH out of the negative (you would think)...probably in the range you already said. 2011 is now averaging about 0.01C warmer than 2008 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Slightly off topic - but Antarctica apparently set a record high. http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/blog/2011/12/28/preliminary-report-record-temperatures-at-south-pole-and-nearby-aws-sites/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Does anyone know why this is happening? Of course it is not out of the ordinary, but it is now almost 2nd for this date. After being so low, it really hasn't been that much of a spike, just getting back in the fray. Also have they fixed the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Slightly off topic - but Antarctica apparently set a record high. http://amrc.ssec.wis...arby-aws-sites/ Please stop, your posts get worse every day. And now Bethesda and co. are going to post every time an all time low is reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Please stop, your posts get worse every day. And now Bethesda and co. are going to post every time an all time low is reached. When was the apex reached? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Does anyone know why this is happening? Of course it is not out of the ordinary, but it is now almost 2nd for this date. After being so low, it really hasn't been that much of a spike, just getting back in the fray. Also have they fixed the issue? MJO cycle is going into region 6 shifting convection (clouds/rain/albedo) away from the warmer SSTAs it had predominated over, as well as the greater large anomalies in the NH. The spike period could last a week before falling again but will slow down in a few days. We will spike down when the MJO gets into region 1 or cycles back to where it was during the cooler period. And no the problem is that AQUA is aging, and is getting increasingly noisy and spurious signals are developing. It is a new drift correction formula AFTER the monthly data is summed up, it won't be seen on the AMSU Discover site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Please stop, your posts get worse every day. And now Bethesda and co. are going to post every time an all time low is reached. Here’s more on South Pole Stations record breaking week of weather (Courtesy of South Pole Meteorology Office): December 24th: The peak wind speed of 29 kts/33 mph broke the previous record of 28 kts/32 mph set in 1996. December 24th: The temperature of -13.3°C/8.1°F broke the previous maximum temperature record of -15.7°C/3.7°F set in 1984. December 25th: The temperature of -12.3°C/9.9°F broke the previous maximum temperature record of -17.2°C/1.0°F set in 1978. December 25th: The temperature of -12.3°C/9.9°F broke the record for the all-time maximum temperature at South Pole. The previous record of -13.3°C/8.1°F was set on December 24, 2011. December 30th: The peak wind speed of 25 kts/29 mph broke the previous record of 21 kts/24 mph set in 1989. Thanks to everyone at South Pole for all of their efforts! That was from the link. I am not why that is a horrible post. I am not endorsing the Record as valid until I do any research. But it is in the global temperature thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Here’s more on South Pole Stations record breaking week of weather (Courtesy of South Pole Meteorology Office): December 24th: The peak wind speed of 29 kts/33 mph broke the previous record of 28 kts/32 mph set in 1996. December 24th: The temperature of -13.3°C/8.1°F broke the previous maximum temperature record of -15.7°C/3.7°F set in 1984. December 25th: The temperature of -12.3°C/9.9°F broke the previous maximum temperature record of -17.2°C/1.0°F set in 1978. December 25th: The temperature of -12.3°C/9.9°F broke the record for the all-time maximum temperature at South Pole. The previous record of -13.3°C/8.1°F was set on December 24, 2011. December 30th: The peak wind speed of 25 kts/29 mph broke the previous record of 21 kts/24 mph set in 1989. Thanks to everyone at South Pole for all of their efforts! That was from the link. I am not why that is a horrible post. I am not endorsing the Record as valid until I do any research. But it is in the global temperature thread. Fair point friv, every one of these damn threads breaks down into child like bickering from both sides - they all sound the same and I forgot i was in the temperature one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vergent Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Can someone explain albedo to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Can someone explain albedo to me? In the case of the Earth, it reflects or scatters back to space 30% of the incident sunlight falling upon it. So, it is said to have an albedo of 0.30. The remaining 70% is absorbed by the atmosphere, land and seas and is the fraction which warms the planet. The moon, if I recall correctly has an albedo of about 0.05...it is very nearly black. Fresh snow has an albedo of about 0.88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 UAH at +0.13 for December, no change from November http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_December_2011.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 UAH at +0.13 for December, no change from November http://www.drroyspen...cember_2011.png That would actually be a +0.01°C increase from November. That's probably a raw number. The final figure has not yet been posted on the UAH site. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt Both that figure and GISS will probably be out within the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That would actually be a +0.01°C increase from November. That's probably a raw number. The final figure has not yet been posted on the UAH site. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt Both that figure and GISS will probably be out within the next two weeks. The +.13 is a rounded number to 2 decimal places, the 'raw' number differed from December by about 0.008 or something like that, so it is basically no change. January, February, and March should all hover at around the same level as December, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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