2011 Global Temperatures

[Sunny and Warm]

The last several posts have taken a turn toward immaturity, so why shouldn't I add my to cents worth?

One should be proud to hold a firm conviction on a subject. So, do you characterize your position on AGW as:

1) Skeptic

2) Denier

3) Fill in the blank _____________________

Rusty, your question gets tiresome the fifth time around. Why are labels so important to your kind? The only thing I have in common with you on this whole subject is my belief in the CO2 science being correct. I do not believe in the subsequent conclusions and extrapolations being made regarding CO2's effects, as the other 99% of "climate change" has dubious science being performed at various levels of quality. Even you must admit that.

[Strongbad]

Rusty, your question gets tiresome the fifth time around. Why are labels so important to your kind? The only thing I have in common with you on this whole subject is my belief in the CO2 science being correct. I do not believe in the subsequent conclusions and extrapolations being made regarding CO2's effects, as the other 99% of "climate change" has dubious science being performed at various levels of quality. Even you must admit that.

You should have simply blocked him after his chidish "denier, denier..." post. That's elementary school banter.

[tacoman25]

No sign of the incredible cold wave in Alaska letting up. This public information statement from the NWS is already outdated, as yet another record low was set this morning, making 6 in a row. I'd say there is a 80% chance this ends up as the coldest November on record at Fairbanks.

SUNDAY WAS THE 5TH DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AT

THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LATE SUNDAY EVENING THE

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 37 BELOW...WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD

OF 36 BELOW IN 1993. THE HIGH OF 22 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT WAS ONLY

2 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 24 BELOW

WHICH WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1911 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1942.

SUNDAY MARKED THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE OF

30 BELOW OR COLDER AT THE AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 5 FOR

THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 30 BELOW COLD SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 5 DAYS OF 30 BELOW TEMPS SO EARLY IN THE

SEASON WAS IN 1989.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 35 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE

LAST 6 DAYS. THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE SO EARLY IN THE

WINTER SEASON AT FAIRBANKS. THE OLD RECORD WAS ONLY 2 DAYS...AND

WAS LAST RECORDED IN 1989.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 20 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE

LAST 5 DAYS. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 3 DAYS IN 1989 FOR THE

MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 20 BELOW OR

COLDER SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON.

[Sunny and Warm]

You should have simply blocked him after his chidish "denier, denier..." post. That's elementary school banter.

well, he's the only one left not on ignore from the AGW side. Friv and Skier were banished long ago from discourse, as they have nothing to offer. The new breed of acolytes are even worse, but their self-destructive attitudes are more comical than harmful. Unfortunately, Rusty has such great belief in his cause and now knows the battle and war are lost. I kinda feel bad for him. Maybe in ten years when he realizes natural variability is a bigger part of the picture ...

[Sunny and Warm]

No sign of the incredible cold wave in Alaska letting up. This public information statement from the NWS is already outdated, as yet another record low was set this morning, making 6 in a row. I'd say there is a 80% chance this ends up as the coldest November on record at Fairbanks.

SUNDAY WAS THE 5TH DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AT

THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LATE SUNDAY EVENING THE

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 37 BELOW...WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD

OF 36 BELOW IN 1993. THE HIGH OF 22 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT WAS ONLY

2 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 24 BELOW

WHICH WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1911 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1942.

SUNDAY MARKED THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE OF

30 BELOW OR COLDER AT THE AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 5 FOR

THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 30 BELOW COLD SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 5 DAYS OF 30 BELOW TEMPS SO EARLY IN THE

SEASON WAS IN 1989.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 35 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE

LAST 6 DAYS. THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE SO EARLY IN THE

WINTER SEASON AT FAIRBANKS. THE OLD RECORD WAS ONLY 2 DAYS...AND

WAS LAST RECORDED IN 1989.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 20 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE

LAST 5 DAYS. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 3 DAYS IN 1989 FOR THE

MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 20 BELOW OR

COLDER SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON.

I wonder what GISS will show as the anomaly for November in Alaska and surrounding regions.

[tacoman25]

As far as comparisons to the 2010 Moscow heatwave and the 2011 Fairbanks coldwave...

July 2010 had a monthly temperature anomaly of about +13F for Moscow. Right now, November 2011 is -10F below normal for Fairbanks, but that anomaly will continue to drop over the coming week. It is possible that Fairbanks ends up with an anomaly close to -15F for the month.

[TerryM]

As far as comparisons to the 2010 Moscow heatwave and the 2011 Fairbanks coldwave...

July 2010 had a monthly temperature anomaly of about +13F for Moscow. Right now, November 2011 is -10F below normal for Fairbanks, but that anomaly will continue to drop over the coming week. It is possible that Fairbanks ends up with an anomaly close to -15F for the month.

And this proves that the weather patterns are normal??

[Sunny and Warm]

And this proves that the weather patterns are normal??

Why not?? There are thousands of locations in the world with hundreds of records, both high and low, for each. So, to assume that dozens or hundreds of the 100yr, 250yr, and 500 year records won't be broken somewhere in any given year is absurd. Statistically, you'd expect a level of volatility in any set of data. Hence the bell curve.

Sounds like the AGW crowd has a new poster child called "atmospheric turbulence". How quaint!

[tacoman25]

And this proves that the weather patterns are normal??

No, both events were clearly due to unusual weather patterns. However, due to the odds of such an extreme event occurring, researchers have said the Moscow event would not have occurred without AGW. My question: if an equally extreme cold event happens, wouldn't the same logic dictate that this event could not have occurred with AGW?

Per the paper referenced in this thread, the dice is loaded for an event like the Moscow 2010 heatwave, but loaded against an event like the Fairbanks cold wave. Saying that AGW "alters weather patterns" or "causes more extremes" does not account for major cold waves like this.

[Sunny and Warm]

Per the paper referenced in this thread, the dice is loaded for an event like the Moscow 2010 heatwave, but loaded against an event like the Fairbanks cold wave. Saying that AGW "alters weather patterns" or "causes more extremes" does not account for major cold waves like this.

I was going to mention the "loaded dice". How quickly some forget that, "snow will be only a memory" or, "we will be ice free by 2013". No one ever mentioned that the opposite could occur until it did, where we had blizzards in London, and once in several lifetime winters in the Mid-Atlantic. I recall that we were living in an ever hotter world until the temps flattened out. Now, short-term natural variability has been introduced into the lexicon. I'm amazed that people can type this drivel with a straight face.

[LakeEffectKing]

No, both events were clearly due to unusual weather patterns. However, due to the odds of such an extreme event occurring, researchers have said the Moscow event would not have occurred without AGW. My question: if an equally extreme cold event happens, wouldn't the same logic dictate that this event could not have occurred with AGW?

Per the paper referenced in this thread, the dice is loaded for an event like the Moscow 2010 heatwave, but loaded against an event like the Fairbanks cold wave. Saying that AGW "alters weather patterns" or "causes more extremes" does not account for major cold waves like this.

Especially since the global temp anomoly for the last few months is actually lower than during previous medium length periods during the late 1990's and earlier this past decade. Really trying to figure out why +.2 to +.6 anomolies are creating such havoc......this time around. Sounds like a convenient shift of message.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Especially since the global temp anomoly for the last few months is actually lower than during previous medium length periods during the late 1990's and earlier this past decade. Really trying to figure out why +.2 to +.6 anomolies are creating such havoc......this time around. Sounds like a convenient shift of message.

the global temp anomaly at the surface is still top 15 andto 10 warm from multiple sources

Thisis important because the satelittes show we are in a cool period above the surface. Mostof the warmest surface anomalies are in the NH where the sea ice is near record lows i know you guys have been presented with the data showing exyra heat by quite a bit over the past when the ice was thicler and more extent during jason. July-November. Not that long ago these same waters saw little to solar insolation. Extra insolation took hold over a large area. Since mid October the heat has been released and still is. Duringthis period air temperatures abovethe surface were going threw a cooling trend. As the sun sets and the winter approaches this heat is forced out.

I do not know the exact extent this affects the NH weather but it is an anomolous eventcaused from the lack of sea ice.

It is just another cog in the Earths climate machine. But it is added enegy to the system that would not otherwise be there.

I can s ee its more fun to pretend to be to ignorant to be able to discuss the science of the Earth but I believe if we try realllllly hard we might be able to work out what is going on.

So far I see Al Gore and some other hypocrite poiticians doings is far more important to discuss than science.

and since you guys cant help yourselves I must apologize in advance for my long satire post featuring Einstein, Carrie Underwood, and Uncle Alberts tongue. The folks who write garbage nearly exclusively are the same ones who cry when the people who rarely do it post one.

So someone please explain what happens when above surface cools while surface emits more heat than normal?

[Sunny and Warm]

Especially since the global temp anomoly for the last few months is actually lower than during previous medium length periods during the late 1990's and earlier this past decade. Really trying to figure out why +.2 to +.6 anomolies are creating such havoc......this time around. Sounds like a convenient shift of message.

global warming -----------> climate change ------------> atmospheric turbulence

I wonder why they need to keep changing messages? A good theory doesn't need a hype machine. It just needs good science. I wonder when they'll think of that crazy idea.

[Sunny and Warm]

and since you guys cant help yourselves I must apologize in advance for my long satire post featuring Einstein, Carrie Underwood, and Uncle Alberts tongue. The folks who write garbage nearly exclusively are the same ones who cry when the people who rarely do it post one.

Friv,

I must go against my long-held ignoring of your posts to respond and say that this section of your last post was very intriguing. Maybe the most intriguing thing I've ever seen you post. Certainly more than anything related to climate!

[dabize]

No sign of the incredible cold wave in Alaska letting up. This public information statement from the NWS is already outdated, as yet another record low was set this morning, making 6 in a row. I'd say there is a 80% chance this ends up as the coldest November on record at Fairbanks.

SUNDAY WAS THE 5TH DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AT

THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LATE SUNDAY EVENING THE

TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 37 BELOW...WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD

OF 36 BELOW IN 1993. THE HIGH OF 22 BELOW AT THE AIRPORT WAS ONLY

2 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 24 BELOW

WHICH WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1911 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1942.

SUNDAY MARKED THE 6TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE OF

30 BELOW OR COLDER AT THE AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 5 FOR

THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 30 BELOW COLD SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 5 DAYS OF 30 BELOW TEMPS SO EARLY IN THE

SEASON WAS IN 1989.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 35 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE

LAST 6 DAYS. THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE SO EARLY IN THE

WINTER SEASON AT FAIRBANKS. THE OLD RECORD WAS ONLY 2 DAYS...AND

WAS LAST RECORDED IN 1989.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS NOW BEEN 20 BELOW OR COLDER EACH OF THE

LAST 5 DAYS. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 3 DAYS IN 1989 FOR THE

MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 20 BELOW OR

COLDER SO EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON.

Captain! I canna turn her! The fuel lines have frozen! We are falling out of the sky!

[skierinvermont]

No, both events were clearly due to unusual weather patterns. However, due to the odds of such an extreme event occurring, researchers have said the Moscow event would not have occurred without AGW. My question: if an equally extreme cold event happens, wouldn't the same logic dictate that this event could not have occurred with AGW?

Per the paper referenced in this thread, the dice is loaded for an event like the Moscow 2010 heatwave, but loaded against an event like the Fairbanks cold wave. Saying that AGW "alters weather patterns" or "causes more extremes" does not account for major cold waves like this.

1. I don't know if the +13 in Moscow in July is a 3SD event. The 3SD event is the JJA anomaly.

2. The anomaly in Moscow is a 3SD event on a 1951-1980 baseline. How far above the 1951-1980 baseline was the Moscow anomaly? And then how far below is the Fairbanks below that same basline?

3. It isn't that the anomaly in Moscow was impossible, but very very unlikely without AGW. Likewise, a similarly negative anomaly should not be impossible with AGW, but very very unlikely.

4. -3SD monthly anomalies are theoretically much more common than -3SD seasonal anomalies with AGW.

And the data shows that such negative anomalies ARE exceptionally rare, and have decreased just as one would expect. If Fairbanks does get a -3SD seasonal anomaly, it will be all the more impressive because of how unlikely such anomalies are with AGW and how rare they have been to occur.

[ORH_wxman]

You're from South Carolina.

A state so hideous, even North Carolina despises it.

I think you and S&W need to go.

[Mencken_Fan]

I think you and S&W need to go.

I deleted my post. Not because it doesn't reflect reality...but because it doesn't meet your "politically correct" standards.

We'll just pretend North and South Carolina are "equal." Heck, we can pretend there's no difference between South Carolina and New Hampshire... France...or Mars.

Must I walk on eggshells when describing reality?

Tim in ILM

[ORH_wxman]

I deleted my post. Not because it doesn't reflect reality...but because it doesn't meet your "politically correct" standards.

We'll just pretend North and South Carolina are "equal." Heck, we can pretend there's no difference between South Carolina and New Hampshire... France...or Mars.

Must I walk on eggshells when describing reality?

Tim in ILM

Sorry, but bringing your politics into this forum in this manner is enough...bye. You can't see this but bye. S&W is gone too...its time we cleaned up this forum of the garbage politics crap. You are still able to post in politics forum, so fire away there with S&W...but you won't be doing it here any longer.

This post is for those who remain in this forum.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not trying to be hard azz...but this politics crap has gone long enough....anyone who brings this up in the future will be banned from this forum. I know they aren't mutually exclusive here since this debate has become so politically driven...but please keep it to the science. As hard as that might be.

[LakeEffectKing]

HadCrut out early!! (relatively speaking)

2010/10 0.404 0.420 0.389 0.556 0.253 0.404 0.398 0.556 0.252 0.556 0.252

2010/11 0.464 0.481 0.447 0.589 0.340 0.464 0.457 0.590 0.338 0.590 0.338

2010/12 0.263 0.283 0.244 0.400 0.126 0.263 0.256 0.401 0.125 0.401 0.125

2011/01 0.207 0.227 0.186 0.359 0.054 0.207 0.200 0.360 0.053 0.360 0.053

2011/02 0.263 0.283 0.242 0.403 0.122 0.263 0.256 0.404 0.121 0.404 0.121

2011/03 0.322 0.340 0.304 0.483 0.160 0.322 0.315 0.484 0.159 0.484 0.159

2011/04 0.399 0.416 0.383 0.541 0.258 0.399 0.393 0.542 0.257 0.542 0.257

2011/05 0.324 0.340 0.307 0.492 0.155 0.324 0.317 0.493 0.155 0.493 0.154

2011/06 0.427 0.443 0.412 0.571 0.283 0.427 0.421 0.572 0.282 0.572 0.282

2011/07 0.460 0.475 0.444 0.650 0.270 0.460 0.453 0.650 0.269 0.650 0.269

2011/08 0.448 0.462 0.434 0.673 0.223 0.448 0.442 0.673 0.223 0.673 0.223

2011/09 0.367 0.382 0.352 0.555 0.179 0.367 0.361 0.556 0.178 0.556 0.178

2011/10 0.350 0.366 0.334 0.492 0.208 0.350 0.344 0.493 0.207 0.493 0.207

[PhillipS]

I'm not trying to be hard azz...but this politics crap has gone long enough....anyone who brings this up in the future will be banned from this forum. I know they aren't mutually exclusive here since this debate has become so politically driven...but please keep it to the science. As hard as that might be.

I don't feel that you're being hard azz at all - I think you tolerated a tremendous amount of OT crap from those two before stepping in. I appreciate your action to improve the 'signal to noise ratio' of this thread.

I joined this forum several months ago in the hope of learning more about climate science. And I believe that there are many others like me who prefer the meaty discussions to the personal attacks. There are plenty of blogs around for watching or participating in climate flame wars - who needs another one.

Regards - Phillip

[ORH_wxman]

AMSU channel 5 back to lowest levels on the discover page that goes back to 2002. Even if temps stay flat (or even a slight rise) for the final week of the month, it should come in as the coldest November in at least 10 years on the satellites....probably since November of 2000. We'll have to wait and see for sure though...sometimes channel 5 can end up tricking us when the final number comes out, but most of the time it doesn't.

[Alpha5]

AMSU channel 5 back to lowest levels on the discover page that goes back to 2002. Even if temps stay flat (or even a slight rise) for the final week of the month, it should come in as the coldest November in at least 10 years on the satellites....probably since November of 2000. We'll have to wait and see for sure though...sometimes channel 5 can end up tricking us when the final number comes out, but most of the time it doesn't.

I think I speak for a lot of people when I ask why is there such a difference between channel 5 and the surface? I know the surface isnt torching completely, but its still a pretty big discrepancy

[ORH_wxman]

I think I speak for a lot of people when I ask why is there such a difference between channel 5 and the surface? I know the surface isnt torching completely, but its still a pretty big discrepancy

Well there is a slight lag...we'll see how the surface looks over the next month or two. I'm not sure how the surface is tracking in November, but it was still fairly warm in October.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well there is a slight lag...we'll see how the surface looks over the next month or two. I'm not sure how the surface is tracking in November, but it was still fairly warm in October.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps

It is funny you mentioned a possible sharp rise to pull 2011 out of the tank. It looks like it won't pull all the way out of last but it's making it close.

As far as the surface:

Looks to be cooler than October so far.

[ORH_wxman]

http://discover.itsc...e.csh?amsutemps

It is funny you mentioned a possible sharp rise to pull 2011 out of the tank. It looks like it won't pull all the way out of last but it's making it close.

As far as the surface:

Looks to be cooler than October so far.

The rise has pulled 2011 slightly ahead of 2008 on the dailies, but it needs to go a lot higher to have a monthly value above 2008. I think 2011 should still come in as the coldest on channel 5 since the archive back to 2002. Whether the actual satellite monthly anomaly is the lowest since 2000 remains to be seen. 2007 didn't look that impressive on channel 5 but came in at +0.06...though it looks like there is missing data on the archive, so not sure how reliable that plot is for 2007.

Through the 25th (which is what we have data for), 2011 was averaging 0.062C colder than 2008 on channel 5. It would need to average 0.308C warmer than 2008 the final 5 days to end up even.

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://discover.itsc...e.csh?amsutemps

It is funny you mentioned a possible sharp rise to pull 2011 out of the tank. It looks like it won't pull all the way out of last but it's making it close.

As far as the surface:

Looks to be cooler than October so far.

Update:

2010 vs 2011 in November:

That is really different. GISS had .71+ for November 2010, but also had a colder Antarctic that 2011 has. But much warmer in other places but a colder central Pacific.

I am going with .40-.48+ for GISS in November 2011 for the Global temps. With the Satellites being around a .02-.06 for November.

I think December will be closer unless Antarctica torches.

The AMSU temps after a short upward jump have taken a quick dip....so they are definitely going to be last on the data set.

[LakeEffectKing]

I'm going to guess that UAH comes in at 0.00 for Nov.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm going to guess that UAH comes in at 0.00 for Nov.

I'm going to guess a tad warmer. Though the little dip at the end of this month again might be enough to bring it that low. It would be the coldest November reading since 2000 which was also 0.00. 2007 is the coldest since then at +.06