skierinvermont Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 One of the primary reasons, along with its inclusion of the arctic, that GISS has been much warmer than HadCRUT 2005-present, is that its OISSTv2 SST is warmer than HadCRUT's HadSST2. As I have shown, when we infill HadCRUT with UAH polar data 1998-2010 it explains about 80% of the discrepancy in trends and from 2002-2010 it explains about half. I believe if you were to use UAH infilling of the poles on HadCRUT and use the OISSTv2 SST data, the trend 2002-present would be exactly the same as GISS. Which refutes the nonsensical idea it has anything to do with extrapolations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 One of the primary reasons, along with its inclusion of the arctic, that GISS has been much warmer than HadCRUT 2005-present, is that its OISSTv2 SST is warmer than HadCRUT's HadSST2. As I have shown, when we infill HadCRUT with UAH polar data 1998-2010 it explains about 80% of the discrepancy in trends and from 2002-2010 it explains about half. I believe if you were to use UAH infilling of the poles on HadCRUT and use the OISSTv2 SST data, the trend 2002-present would be exactly the same as GISS. Which refutes the nonsensical idea it has anything to do with extrapolations. The primary period of GISS divergence from the other sources is 2005-present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 The primary period of GISS divergence from the other sources is 2005-present. It depends what you mean by divergence. An actual growth in divergence or just a large sustained difference (which is not technically a divergence IMO). The trend 2005-present, especially 2006-present is nearly the same. GISS has just been warmer if you use an older baseline like 1990-1999 or 1951-1980. For the trend, the divergence is 2002-present not 2005-present. Basically in 2005 HadCRUT experienced a step wise decrease relative to GISS. I believe this relates to the different SST analyses used. Thus when we use the same SST analysis and use UAH for the poles, HadCRUT and GISS the divergence 2002-present is eliminated, and they have the same anomalies 2005-present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 While AMSU Channel 5 remains warm, the GFS shows the global temperature forecasted anomaly down to .08C: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 GISS goes up a couple hundreds....contrary to the sats.: Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year 2001 38 40 54 40 49 45 51 45 47 43 65 51 47 45 33 48 47 52 2001 2002 72 70 87 55 56 46 56 45 51 50 50 37 56 57 64 66 49 50 2002 2003 66 50 52 49 52 40 49 62 60 67 48 68 55 53 51 51 50 58 2003 2004 52 65 58 51 34 33 19 41 45 57 65 50 48 49 62 48 31 56 2004 2005 71 56 70 61 56 59 55 56 68 72 64 62 63 62 59 62 57 68 2005 2006 46 61 58 42 38 55 42 65 57 59 63 71 55 54 56 46 54 60 2006 2007 90 63 65 68 60 52 55 54 50 53 47 40 58 61 74 64 54 50 2007 2008 17 26 66 43 41 34 52 35 53 55 58 47 44 43 28 50 40 55 2008 2009 55 46 47 49 53 61 66 56 65 61 68 60 57 56 49 50 61 64 2009 2010 70 75 86 75 64 55 51 54 55 63 71 41 63 65 68 75 53 63 2010 2011 44 43 56 55 43 51 59 61******************** ********* 43 51 57***** 2011 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Avg global temp now down to -0.035C with the coldest anomalies across Antartica and the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Avg global temp now down to -0.035C with the coldest anomalies across Antartica and the Pacific. AMSU Channel 5 has also been in a nosedive; we're now colder than 2010, 2005, and 2002...right in the middle of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 GISS goes up a couple hundreds....contrary to the sats.: where were you in April and May when GISS plummeted while the sats skyrocketed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 where were you in April and May when GISS plummeted while the sats skyrocketed? Man, you perceive posts in such a defensive light! I post the data (with a little factual blurb) no matter how it compares to the sats. Usually, if no one has posted the data, and it's out, I'll post it! But for now on, I'll let you post it in your totally objective manner..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 where were you in April and May when GISS plummeted while the sats skyrocketed? And yet GISS is still running, and will undoubtedly finish the year, warmer than the sats (when put on the same baseline). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 And yet GISS is still running, and will undoubtedly finish the year, warmer than the sats (when put on the same baseline). The YTD for GISS is .17 and the YTD for UAH is .15. Smallest difference in years. Mostly due to UAH showing much more warming relative to the last Nina year (2008) than GISS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 The YTD for GISS is .17 and the YTD for UAH is .15. Smallest difference in years. Mostly due to UAH showing much more warming relative to the last Nina year (2008) than GISS has. Given how every year recently has turned out, I am pretty confident the year end difference will be larger. And don't forget RSS, I believe they've been a bit cooler than UAH this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Given how every year recently has turned out, I am pretty confident the year end difference will be larger. And don't forget RSS, I believe they've been a bit cooler than UAH this year. It might grow slightly given precedent, but I doubt it grows much considering 7 of 12 months are already in and the fact that we are heading into a Nina which will affect GISS first. I wouldn't be totally shocked given this if GISS actually finished below UAH for the year. GISS should actually have been much warmer than UAH so far this year because the troposphere is still cool from the last Nina, while the surface should have warmed due to the neutral conditions. But UAH really hasn't gotten very cold this year. Much warmer than 2008, indicating 2008 might not be totally representative for a La Nina year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 It might grow slightly given precedent, but I doubt it grows much considering 7 of 12 months are already in and the fact that we are heading into a Nina which will affect GISS first. I wouldn't be totally shocked given this if GISS actually finished below UAH for the year. GISS should actually have been much warmer than UAH so far this year because the troposphere is still cool from the last Nina, while the surface should have warmed due to the neutral conditions. But UAH really hasn't gotten very cold this year. Much warmer than 2008, indicating 2008 might not be totally representative for a La Nina year. But if you applied that same logic to 2007 and 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Interesting stat I checked on...(not related in anyway to the AGW discussion) but UAH has had the sharpest decline -.28 over the last 3 days ( -19.50 to -19.59 to -19.68 to -19.78 ) of any similar 3 day timespan since 2002. I only checked because when looking at the daily graph, the slope appeared extreme..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 HadCrut finally reports for Aug...essentially flat from July: 2010/01 0.489 0.510 0.469 0.646 0.332 0.489 0.482 0.648 0.331 0.648 0.331 2010/02 0.481 0.502 0.461 0.632 0.331 0.481 0.475 0.633 0.330 0.633 0.330 2010/03 0.583 0.601 0.565 0.736 0.430 0.583 0.576 0.737 0.429 0.737 0.429 2010/04 0.571 0.588 0.555 0.717 0.426 0.571 0.565 0.718 0.425 0.718 0.424 2010/05 0.516 0.532 0.501 0.676 0.357 0.516 0.509 0.677 0.356 0.677 0.356 2010/06 0.541 0.556 0.526 0.682 0.399 0.541 0.534 0.683 0.398 0.683 0.398 2010/07 0.542 0.557 0.527 0.723 0.361 0.542 0.535 0.724 0.361 0.724 0.360 2010/08 0.485 0.499 0.472 0.706 0.264 0.485 0.479 0.707 0.264 0.707 0.263 2010/09 0.396 0.409 0.382 0.586 0.206 0.396 0.389 0.586 0.205 0.586 0.205 2010/10 0.410 0.425 0.395 0.555 0.265 0.410 0.403 0.556 0.264 0.556 0.264 2010/11 0.444 0.462 0.427 0.572 0.317 0.444 0.438 0.573 0.316 0.573 0.315 2010/12 0.267 0.286 0.247 0.401 0.133 0.267 0.260 0.402 0.131 0.402 0.131 2011/01 0.206 0.226 0.186 0.359 0.053 0.206 0.200 0.360 0.052 0.360 0.052 2011/02 0.264 0.284 0.244 0.404 0.124 0.264 0.258 0.406 0.122 0.406 0.122 2011/03 0.322 0.340 0.304 0.483 0.160 0.322 0.315 0.484 0.159 0.484 0.159 2011/04 0.398 0.415 0.382 0.540 0.257 0.398 0.392 0.541 0.256 0.541 0.256 2011/05 0.323 0.339 0.306 0.491 0.154 0.323 0.316 0.492 0.154 0.492 0.153 2011/06 0.425 0.441 0.410 0.570 0.281 0.425 0.419 0.571 0.280 0.571 0.280 2011/07 0.459 0.475 0.443 0.649 0.269 0.459 0.452 0.650 0.268 0.650 0.268 2011/08 0.458 0.472 0.444 0.683 0.233 0.458 0.452 0.683 0.233 0.683 0.233 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 UAH in at +.29C for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 UAH in at +.29C for September. yikes! So much for that impending dive we spent most of August and September hearing about.. although October is starting off quite cold. YTD is +.163. I'd guess that the final for the year is right about .15. Yet again almost everybody will be .1C too cold in their guesses. some people even by .2C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 yikes! So much for that impending dive we spent most of August and September hearing about.. although November is starting off quite cold. YTD is +.163. I'd guess that the final for the year is right about .15. Yet again almost everybody will be .1C too cold in their guesses. some people even by .2C+. October. Still three months to go, and there probably will be significant cooling seen. The year could easily finish cooler than .15 and probably will, in my opinion. Given the 4-5 month (average) lag from ENSO/OHC to satellite temps, the September number is not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 October. Still three months to go, and there probably will be significant cooling seen. The year could easily finish cooler than .15 and probably will, in my opinion. Given the 4-5 month (average) lag from ENSO/OHC to satellite temps, the September number is not surprising. Even if the next three months average a mere +.1C the year finishes at .15. My guess is the final three months of the year finish between 0 and +.2 which means the year finishes between .12-.17. And this assumes substantial cooling of .1-.3C from September. Even if the next three months are frigid and drop .3C, 3 months is only a small portion of the year and thus the YTD doesn't change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 yikes! So much for that impending dive we spent most of August and September hearing about.. although October is starting off quite cold. YTD is +.163. I'd guess that the final for the year is right about .15. Yet again almost everybody will be .1C too cold in their guesses. some people even by .2C+. We still have a long way to go with the forecast for a global temperature drop. Heading into the 2nd year of the 2 year Nina, it should continue as the Winter progresses. Solar activity has picked up lately. The Sunspot number yesterday was about 100, twice the average. This implies that the Sun has been very active recently and could play a big role in the most recent warming you have observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 We still have a long way to go with the forecast for a global temperature drop. Heading into the 2nd year of the 2 year Nina, it should continue as the Winter progresses. Solar activity has picked up lately. The Sunspot number yesterday was about 100, twice the average. This implies that the Sun has been very active recently and could play a big role in the most recent warming you have observed. 2nd year Ninas are usually not any colder than 1st year Ninas on average.. unless they are of equal or greater strength which this one will not be. As I already said, I am predicting substantial cooling the next 3 months and that the next 3 months will average .1-.3C cooler than September did. Which is nearly as cold as the JFM period. You don't need to lecture me on how Ninas cause cooling.. I have already taken this into account. I will give 2:1 odds in anybody's favor that we do not surpass the -.1C reading on UAH we saw last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 2nd year Ninas are usually not any colder than 1st year Ninas on average.. unless they are of equal or greater strength which this one will not be. As I already said, I am predicting substantial cooling the next 3 months and that the next 3 months will average .1-.3C cooler than September did. Which is nearly as cold as the JFM period. You don't need to lecture me on how Ninas cause cooling.. I have already taken this into account. I will give 2:1 odds in anybody's favor that we do not surpass the -.1C reading on UAH we saw last winter. You are being way too defensive. I am in no ways lecturing you. As for whether or not we do not pass -.1C like we did last winter, what are you basing your guess on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Even if the next three months average a mere +.1C the year finishes at .15. My guess is the final three months of the year finish between 0 and +.2 which means the year finishes between .12-.17. And this assumes substantial cooling of .1-.3C from September. Even if the next three months are frigid and drop .3C, 3 months is only a small portion of the year and thus the YTD doesn't change much. We are MUCH cooler than last year at this time, about .2C. I think the last three months could easily finish below .1C given OHC trends. I would agree that finishing below .12 or so is very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 We are MUCH cooler than last year at this time, about .2C. I think the last three months could easily finish below .1C given OHC trends. 3 months is 25% of the year, a pretty large percentage actually. So now Skier is moving the goalposts since 2011 is certainly much cooler than previous years. Now he is considering the current cooling against what was "expected", and finds it not robust enough to scare him that AGW might be fake. The lack of personal honesty in evaluating the trends is astonishing. If this were an Nino, you can bet he wouldn't be pulling this excuse out of the hat and say that warming didn't meet expectations. He's just say it was warm and supports AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 We are MUCH cooler than last year at this time, about .2C. I think the last three months could easily finish below .1C given OHC trends. I would agree that finishing below .12 or so is very unlikely. What does that have to do with anything? Last September was as Nino month. What I said was 2nd year Ninas are rarely colder than 1st year ones unless they are of equal or stronger strength. That would be 2012 vs 2011. But it is also true that OND is rarely colder than JFM of 1st year Ninas, even when heading into a 2nd Nina. Glad to see you agree with .12-.17 for the final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 So now Skier is moving the goalposts since 2011 is certainly much cooler than previous years. Now he is considering the current cooling against what was "expected", and finds it not robust enough to scare him that AGW might be fake. The lack of personal honesty in evaluating the trends is astonishing. If this were an Nino, you can bet he wouldn't be pulling this excuse out of the hat and say that warming didn't meet expectations. He's just say it was warm and supports AGW. I guess you are unaware that I have consistently adjusted Nino years downwards to account for the fact that they are Ninos. My posting history on this is quite clear and I have started entire threads dealing with this matter (one of which you just posted in but I guess it went in one ear and out the other). Not everybody warps facts to fit their beliefs- I guess you just think that this is the norm since you do it all the time. Also your obsession with me is pretty funny.. you've probably responded to me a couple dozen times now indirectly through reading the quoted portions of people's posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 What does that have to do with anything? Last September was as Nino month. What I said was 2nd year Ninas are rarely colder than 1st year ones unless they are of equal or stronger strength. That would be 2012 vs 2011. But it is also true that OND is rarely colder than JFM of 1st year Ninas, even when heading into a 2nd Nina. Glad to see you agree with .12-.17 for the final. Sure. But we don't have to finish near as cold as JFM 2011 to finish below .15C for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Sure. But we don't have to finish near as cold as JFM 2011 to finish below .15C for the year. I didn't say we couldn't finish below .15C.. I said that is approximately a best guess. To finish substantially below .15C we would need to average colder than JFM and I don't think that has every happened before in a Nina. Why are you arguing with me.. I never said we could not finish below .15C and you apparently agree with my range of .12-.17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I didn't say we couldn't finish below .15C.. I said that is approximately a best guess. To finish substantially below .15C we would need to average colder than JFM and I don't think that has every happened before in a Nina. Why are you arguing with me.. I never said we could not finish below .15C and you apparently agree with my range of .12-.17. Not arguing with you, you originally said you didn't think we would finish below .15C. I think your range is fine, though it would take something weird either way to make that large of a range bust at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.