2011 Global Temperatures

[Snowstorms]

Not a huge surprise since the global SSTs were dropping hugely this summer...and the lag will start asserting itself. I told skier that I thought the late months of 2011 might come in pretty cold....not sure if that will happen yet since we always have to wait until actual numbers come out. But it seems on track thus far. The AMSU temps are plummeting...and I think they will continue to do so for a while on the mean (there will be little variations). We will find out how low they can go based on this Nina....I think they could possibly challenge last year's lows...but my prediction is they wont quite reach them.

I think August will come in cooler on UAH/RSS than July and even June. The GFS shows consistent negative values through this week into next week across the globe. Much of the Pacific experiences cooling including the PDO region. The PDO took a nose dive in July compared to June.

Average global temperatures are now down to +0.037.

[LakeEffectKing]

Rather large 6 day drop in Ch. 5:

[BethesdaWX]

Hansen's predictions have turned into a huge joke. It's almost insulting to Climate Science itself that he is sometimes called a "climate scientist."

Can he ever predict anything correctly?

Looking at subsurface temperatures, there are some very cool anomalies already developing in the subsurface waters of Nino 3.

Hansen is very narrow minded, he predicts ENSO like he Predicts the climate. His ENSO predictions take subsurface waters, and assumes that the atmosphere will respond, thats not how anything works in the climate system.

Also note the belief that El Nino is the Ocean losing energy and La Nina is the Ocean gaining energy is complete BS, the MEI index on its own precedes change in ENSO by quite a bit (as I found out from my bro), and in fact before ENSO change, the reflected SW energy from the Tropics changes...before the 2010 El Nino reflected SW energy decreased substantially, and remained low until January 2010, when more was begin reflected.

In that case the Oceans could not have been losing energy in that El Nino, El Nino is a process of the Oceans gaining energy, visa versa for La Nina.

[Mencken_Fan]

Okay....I get it that every wrong forecast Hansen ever makes will be duly noted here.

But Hansen is only one person; he's not the entire world of atmospheric science.

I'm sure every field of science has at least one "Joe Bastardi", lol.

[BethesdaWX]

Okay....I get it that every wrong forecast Hansen ever makes will be duly noted here.

But Hansen is only one person; he's not the entire world of atmospheric science.

I'm sure every field of science has at least one "Joe Bastardi", lol.

eh JB is no better than Hansen in my opinion.

[BethesdaWX]

AMSU AQUA Ch4 continued the nose-dive today, now down over 0.5C. Hard to anticipate any substantial rise anytime soon, as we head into the La Nina with the relative SST temperature near that of last winter we're in for a cool finish to 2011.

August Probably drops off 0.15-0.25C from JUL, as expected.

[BethesdaWX]

Drop has continued today, now down about 0.6C. With how much OHC we've lost and the continuing drop of SST's, I expect this to continue in the long run.

[Jesse]

Global temps still dropping?

[skierinvermont]

Global temps still dropping?

No AMSU anomaly has risen .2 over the last week or so. I don't expect that they will ever get too much lower than they were a week ago any time this fall. They were quite cold a week ago. About as cold as the Jan-March period was on average. Which is why I was confused a week ago when Bethesda expected the cooling to continue in the long run. It was already quite cold. I'm sure that there will be brief dips slightly below the anomalies we had a week ago and during the Jan-March period but I don't expect such periods to be prolonged.

[tacoman25]

No AMSU anomaly has risen .2 over the last week or so. I don't expect that they will ever get too much lower than they were a week ago any time this fall. They were quite cold a week ago. About as cold as the Jan-March period was on average. Which is why I was confused a week ago when Bethesda expected the cooling to continue in the long run. It was already quite cold. I'm sure that there will be brief dips slightly below the anomalies we had a week ago and during the Jan-March period but I don't expect such periods to be prolonged.

Even with models trending colder for the incoming Nina? What if global SSTA drop lower over the next few months than last year (this is very possible)?

[skierinvermont]

Even with models trending colder for the incoming Nina? What if global SSTA drop lower over the next few months than last year (this is very possible)?

Then I'd expect global temps this Jan-Mar to be similar to last Jan-Mar. Thing is, last week's dip was actually colder than the average of that period. I'm not saying it won't be cold.. just that it already was cold a week ago due to the very sharp dip (and now we've rebounded). Such cold temps will of course become more common going forward and we'll of course dip slightly below that for brief periods.

Right now I expect this JFM to be warmer than last JFM (using a combo of RSS/UAH let's say). I don't notice much of a tendency for 2nd year Ninas to be colder, in fact, they often are warmer. I also think there may be something to Spencer's theory about the OHC anomaly of the upwelling water in the ENSO regions controlling global temperature anomaly. Right now the OHC is not nearly as cold as it was last fall, so when that water is upwelled later this fall, it won't be absorbing as much heat from the atmosphere.

I think Spencer may be right that the reasons for the temperature spike despite the ENSO-neutral conditions is the very high OHC water that was being upwelled which absorbs less heat than if a similar quantity/rate of cooler water was upwelled.

[OHSnow]

UAH in at +0.33C for August.

[Strongbad]

eh JB is no better than Hansen in my opinion.

Don't allow yourself to be careless. JB predicted the two-year Nina before the first even started. Hansen predicted a strong Nino this year (don't know what he called for last year). JB is definitely prone to over-hype, but I will take his long-range forecasting over Hansen's any day.

[Isotherm]

Don't allow yourself to be careless. JB predicted the two-year Nina before the first even started. Hansen predicted a strong Nino this year (don't know what he called for last year). JB is definitely prone to over-hype, but I will take his long-range forecasting over Hansen's any day.

Agreed, Hansen is the definition of forecasts driven by agenda, and JB is the definition of forecasts with a tendency toward hype. The former is much worse.

[skierinvermont]

Agreed, Hansen is the definition of forecasts driven by agenda, and JB is the definition of forecasts with a tendency toward hype. The former is much worse.

In terms of weather and ENSO etc... yeah JB is just hype whereas Hansen has some bias. But in terms of his climate predictions on things like arctic sea ice.. JB has been even worse than Hansen.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Jb, watts, goodard, gosling are all lying manipulative hacks. Anyone taking any of them serious is like taking Rush serious. It's pure emotional bias.

Hansen has failed because he allowed his emotional bias to take over because he is 70 yes old and feels that his influence is about to end and is convicted I'm his beliefs which are founded in sound science. Those others are doing what they do out ideology and it's wrong.

[Strongbad]

Jb, watts, goodard, gosling are all lying manipulative hacks. Anyone taking any of them serious is like taking Rush serious. It's pure emotional bias.

Hansen has failed because he allowed his emotional bias to take over because he is 70 yes old and feels that his influence is about to end and is convicted I'm his beliefs which are founded in sound science. Those others are doing what they do out ideology and it's wrong.

Yup, that's really going to change my mind. Wow thanks for being so convincing...

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yup, that's really going to change my mind. Wow thanks for being so convincing...

There work speaks for itself.

I am sorry you can't see that.

[Jesse]

There work speaks for itself.

I am sorry you can't see that.

*their

[WeatherRusty]

Yup, that's really going to change my mind. Wow thanks for being so convincing...

Why place so much emphasis on individuals anyway?

They are not representative of the entire body of science. They put a face to it, that's all.

[The_Global_Warmer]

*their

it's sad to see like many others you haven't been back to the Sea Ice Thread.

It's also indicative of you posting about that and no one refuting what I said about those people.

I am beyond happy to read any skeptic science. Only when it's real science and not the slightly blind wolf leading the blind sheep or the wolf leading the blind sheep.

I feel mostly bad for the more robust skeptics who have to deal with being on the "side" of the quacks. And have posters come to these boards and post more quack material.

I suggest being skeptical. I don't suggest using quack data.

[Strongbad]

it's sad to see like many others you haven't been back to the Sea Ice Thread.

It's also indicative of you posting about that and no one refuting what I said about those people.

I am beyond happy to read any skeptic science. Only when it's real science and not the slightly blind wolf leading the blind sheep or the worf leading the blind sheep.

I feel mostly bad for the more robust skeptics who have to deal with being on the "side" of the quacks. And have posters come to these boards and post more quack material.

I suggest being skeptical. I don't suggest using quack data.

it's amazing how self-satisfied you are. It's one thing to forecast ice melt well, but you go so far as to use the same rhetoric as your more extreme friends. Too bad...over the next few decades it will be interesting to see what happens if global temps fall to lows not seen since at least the 70's. Hopefully you will disregard the hype of some skeptics, but become more skeptical yourself as you go on. You do seem to know certain things very well. Why not tone down your own inner thoughts?

[The_Global_Warmer]

it's amazing how self-satisfied you are. It's one thing to forecast ice melt well, but you go so far as to use the same rhetoric as your more extreme friends. Too bad...over the next few decades it will be interesting to see what happens if global temps fall to lows not seen since at least the 70's. Hopefully you will disregard the hype of some skeptics, but become more skeptical yourself as you go on. You do seem to know certain things very well. Why not tone down your own inner thoughts?

Your not getting it.

I am not claiming to be a guru of any sort.

I am a layman with very basic knowledge of climate. Actually I'd say I do not even qualify to know even very basic knowledge.

Your right it's one thing to forecast Sea Ice Melt. And while it is very hard to do. It took me a month or two of trial and error and data assimilation to figure out sea ice pretty well. Which makes it even harder to stomach some of the so called skeptics out there. Those guys I mentioned are not skeptics they are predators and the people on WUWT saying ice breakers are a decent cause of the ice to be this low are the victims. Tony Watts will take me to task when I confused himself and that looney Pierre Gosslin from Germany's Sea Ice Predictions. Even though Watts is using him in his blogs to show the ice getting better last year because concentration increased over the central arctic just like right now. But we both know that is just a thin layer of ice filling in areas like this:

Watts knows this to be a fact..but he doesn't correct that, why not? Well by not correcting it he allows his followers to believe something not true. How many people following the ice are as anal as I am? I know this, the smart ones who end up wrong only fail through bias or not being anal enough to find all the real time data. Back to Watts. He also posted that the NSIDC graph was roughly 5.0km2 when he made his last blog about the ice. I took that exact graph into Photoshop extrapolated a ruler onto it and the bottom line of the pixel graph showed 4,770,000km2 That is a massive deception. It took an NSIDC employee to come and correct it for him. And by then it was 4.66km2 which was only the next day.

Tony also in 2010 used the 30% DMI graph because it only went back to 2005 which at the time was a very low ice extent year. Another manipulating tactic of his followers. He also set the medium for the last graph at 5.0-5.1km2 another deceptive tactic knowing the laylaylayman/woman would think anything well below that would be abnormal if they also thought NSIDC was at 5.0km2 and not 4.75 or 4.66km2. He knows all of this unless he is stupid. And we know he is not that. He also threw out Piomas for Pips which is also a model and he used a wrong equation to come up with volume from that model. Just continue manipulation of data.

His people have said the ice is refreezing rapidly because the concentration maps show it expanding. They said Ice Breakers help keep the extents low. He knows that is bunk and says nothing.

That is why I get so heated.

I do not mean to be arrogant or standoffish but someone has to stop allowing bunk science into this. You don't see me posting Hansen graphs? I never post crap data ever.

I get called an alarmist. Interesting on September 3rd NSIDC has 4,500,000km2 as the min extent, Jaxa has 4,683,000km2 and Bremen has 4,520,000km2. My official low prediction was 4,300,000km2 which Clifford and Bethesda through in my face. Both of them won't even come back here now. I already admitted my area prediction will be way off.

I am sorry if I am to loud. But I don't see these guys who constantly bully on these threads coming out apologizing for there terrible forecasts and lack of true work on finding out what is really going on whether it be ice or temperature or what have you.

It ends with ignoring the present and making a bold forecast about the future, rinse wash repeat.

I will work on not being so abrasive, I hope others work on not bullying posters who end up right more than they do.

in the end right or wrong we all are worried about the same thing.

[WeatherRusty]

it's amazing how self-satisfied you are. It's one thing to forecast ice melt well, but you go so far as to use the same rhetoric as your more extreme friends. Too bad...over the next few decades it will be interesting to see what happens if global temps fall to lows not seen since at least the 70's. Hopefully you will disregard the hype of some skeptics, but become more skeptical yourself as you go on. You do seem to know certain things very well. Why not tone down your own inner thoughts?

Why do you suspect that temps may fall back to 1970 levels in the next few decades? Will it be intrinsic solar? Increased low cloud amount? PDO, AMO? Undefined "natural variability"?

I can give the scientific reasons why I don't expect global average temp to fall to 1970 levels. It supported by the detection of a positive energy imbalance at the boundary between the Earth's environment and outer space which indicates the Earth continues to accumulate energy rather than loose it. This argues against any possibility of a cooling Earth any time soon at least until that imbalance is eliminated by either the globe warming or an elimination of or forcing of opposite sign negating whatever is creating the imbalance.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Don't allow yourself to be careless. JB predicted the two-year Nina before the first even started. Hansen predicted a strong Nino this year (don't know what he called for last year). JB is definitely prone to over-hype, but I will take his long-range forecasting over Hansen's any day.

Agreed.....I'll take JB over Hansen. Although, JB can be mis-leading at times as well.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Agreed.....I'll take JB over Hansen. Although, JB can be mis-leading at times as well.

Would you cite examples why?

[Jesse]

Your not getting it.

I am not claiming to be a guru of any sort.

I am a layman with very basic knowledge of climate. Actually I'd say I do not even qualify to know even very basic knowledge.

Your right it's one thing to forecast Sea Ice Melt. And while it is very hard to do. It took me a month or two of trial and error and data assimilation to figure out sea ice pretty well. Which makes it even harder to stomach some of the so called skeptics out there. Those guys I mentioned are not skeptics they are predators and the people on WUWT saying ice breakers are a decent cause of the ice to be this low are the victims. Tony Watts will take me to task when I confused himself and that looney Pierre Gosslin from Germany's Sea Ice Predictions. Even though Watts is using him in his blogs to show the ice getting better last year because concentration increased over the central arctic just like right now. But we both know that is just a thin layer of ice filling in areas like this:

Watts knows this to be a fact..but he doesn't correct that, why not? Well by not correcting it he allows his followers to believe something not true. How many people following the ice are as anal as I am? I know this, the smart ones who end up wrong only fail through bias or not being anal enough to find all the real time data. Back to Watts. He also posted that the NSIDC graph was roughly 5.0km2 when he made his last blog about the ice. I took that exact graph into Photoshop extrapolated a ruler onto it and the bottom line of the pixel graph showed 4,770,000km2 That is a massive deception. It took an NSIDC employee to come and correct it for him. And by then it was 4.66km2 which was only the next day.

Tony also in 2010 used the 30% DMI graph because it only went back to 2005 which at the time was a very low ice extent year. Another manipulating tactic of his followers. He also set the medium for the last graph at 5.0-5.1km2 another deceptive tactic knowing the laylaylayman/woman would think anything well below that would be abnormal if they also thought NSIDC was at 5.0km2 and not 4.75 or 4.66km2. He knows all of this unless he is stupid. And we know he is not that. He also threw out Piomas for Pips which is also a model and he used a wrong equation to come up with volume from that model. Just continue manipulation of data.

His people have said the ice is refreezing rapidly because the concentration maps show it expanding. They said Ice Breakers help keep the extents low. He knows that is bunk and says nothing.

That is why I get so heated.

I do not mean to be arrogant or standoffish but someone has to stop allowing bunk science into this. You don't see me posting Hansen graphs? I never post crap data ever.

I get called an alarmist. Interesting on September 3rd NSIDC has 4,500,000km2 as the min extent, Jaxa has 4,683,000km2 and Bremen has 4,520,000km2. My official low prediction was 4,300,000km2 which Clifford and Bethesda through in my face. Both of them won't even come back here now. I already admitted my area prediction will be way off.

I am sorry if I am to loud. But I don't see these guys who constantly bully on these threads coming out apologizing for there terrible forecasts and lack of true work on finding out what is really going on whether it be ice or temperature or what have you.

It ends with ignoring the present and making a bold forecast about the future, rinse wash repeat.

I will work on not being so abrasive, I hope others work on not bullying posters who end up right more than they do.

in the end right or wrong we all are worried about the same thing.

*you're

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Would you cite examples why?

Dude......wake up and read more. It should be obvious to anyone. I would not take either of their forcasts to heart but if I had to decide on the lesser of two evils, I would pick JB hands down due to the fact that his predictions have been closer to reality than Hansen's. I can't make it any clearer than that.

[skierinvermont]

Dude......wake up and read more. It should be obvious to anyone. I would not take either of their forcasts to heart but if I had to decide on the lesser of two evils, I would pick JB hands down due to the fact that his predictions have been closer to reality than Hansen's. I can't make it any clearer than that.

Depends which forecasts you are referring to. JB's sea ice forecasts are borderline delusional. We almost passed his 2011 guess in July lol.

His forecast was "at the lowest 5.5 million sq km." Current extent is 4.655 and continuing to drop.

The only bad Hansen forecast I know of was his ENSO forecast.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Depends which forecasts you are referring to. JB's sea ice forecasts are borderline delusional. We almost passed his 2011 guess in July lol.

His forecast was "at the lowest 5.5 million sq km." Current extent is 4.655 and continuing to drop.

The only bad Hansen forecast I know of was his ENSO forecast.

JB has had about 10-20 delusional winter storm forecasts as well.

I don't get what has caused this guy go off is rocker.

Last year Watts got blown up by Steve Goodard this year he let JB blow him up.

In Watts latest post he pretty much backed out of stuff. Which is completely not surprising.